Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

969 
WWUS52 KGSP 192015
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
415 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

NCC059-192030-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-170519T2030Z/
Davie NC-
415 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN DAVIE COUNTY...

At 415 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles northeast of
Mocksville, or near Bermuda Run, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind 
         damage to trees and power lines. 

Locations impacted include...
Bermuda Run, Fork Church, Advance and Farmington. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A few trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned area.
Hail can cause major property damage, especially to vehicles. Seek
shelter inside an interior room.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3589 8040 3588 8042 3587 8039 3587 8040
      3588 8052 3604 8052 3604 8049 3606 8046
      3603 8044 3600 8041 3599 8042 3596 8038
      3589 8037
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 280DEG 27KT 3595 8044 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RWH

039 
WWUS52 KGSP 192027
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
427 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

NCC059-192037-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-170519T2030Z/
Davie NC-
427 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DAVIE COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 430 PM EDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3589 8040 3588 8042 3587 8039 3587 8040
      3588 8052 3604 8052 3604 8049 3606 8046
      3603 8044 3600 8041 3599 8042 3596 8038
      3589 8037
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 272DEG 33KT 3595 8030 

$$

RWH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
315 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The upper ridge moves east and off the East Coast this weekend as a
closed upper low swings northeast from Colorado. Expect a backdoor
cold front to drop south across the Carolinas Saturday and Saturday
night as a stronger cold front moves east across the Mississippi
Valley. As this cold front moves toward our region over the weekend,
deep moisture from the Gulf will bring an excellent chance
of rain late Sunday into Monday.  Expect another strong system in
mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Although coverage is about what was expected, convection fired a
little earlier than anticipated across the high terrain, and was
already beginning to move off the Blue Ridge as 18Z approached. The
highest pops were therefore moved earlier in the day, while they
have been increased for much of the NC foothills and northwest NC
Piedmont into the late afternoon. Per the latest SPC mesoanalysis,
the atmosphere is (as expected) decidedly less unstable and more
inhibited for areas roughly along and southeast of I-85, so will
continue to omit pops within that general area. Moderate levels of
shear remain just west of the area, so severe storms should continue
to tend toward the pulse end of the spectrum, but would not be
surprised to see one or two more long-lived cells as the afternoon
wears on. Convection will diminish quickly this evening, although
slight chance pops will be maintained across mainly the mountains
through much of the overnight.

Amplification of the ridge between deep troughs/upper lows over the
Great Plains and the Canadian Maritimes is expected on Saturday,
which will occur more or less right over our forecast area.
Meanwhile, a back door cold front should be oozing SW across the
Virginia Piedmont when the day begins. Forecasting the SW penetration
of such boundaries is always a crapshoot, and the models have really
been struggling with it, even more so than usual in recent days.
Certainly part of the problem is the building ridge, which would
certainly act to limit the SW progress of the boundary. This isn't
only problematic in terms of the temperature forecast, but also from
a pop standpoint. The warm sector air mass should be generally
capped, and guidance suggests the convective potential should be
limited to the immediate boundary. A consensus of the latest
guidance suggests the front will remain north of our area during
through the end of the day, and we will follow that solution in
terms of the max T forecast, which will be well above climo.
However, chance pops will be maintained across much of western NC
north of the I-85 corridor. Instability should be robust enough and
shear sufficient to promote an isolated severe weather threat with
any convection Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 310 PM EDT Friday: The closed 500 mb low pressure center will
lift northeast across the western Great Lakes Saturday night through
Sunday, while the ridge axis along the southeast coastline moves
offshore. Moisture will deepen from the southwest late Saturday
night through Sunday as the low level flow backs and strengthens.
The backdoor boundary near the northeast part of the area should
slowly retreat northward through Sunday as flow increases in the
warm sector. The southern tier of the forecast area could get quite
unstable with any warming at all but shear should remain rather
modest at that time.

The deepest forcing and moisture will cross the region just ahead of
the cold front Sunday night through Monday morning. The 850 mb
southerly jet may briefly strengthen late Sunday through Sunday
night ahead of the approaching front, mainly over the piedmont, but
the nocturnal timing should dampen the severe weather potential. QPF
is slightly higher for the southern mountain upslope areas, and
rainfall in this area the next couple of days will need to be
watched very closely to assess moisture/stream levels. Shortwave
energy rounding the developing central/eastern CONUS trough will
likely cross the region on Monday. This will push the cold front
across the region, with gradual drying from the west through the
day. Temperatures will transition back below climo for maxes by
Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 210 PM Friday...The cold front will move to the Carolina coast
late Monday night taking the rain with it. This cold front is
expected to slow down and a wave of low pressure could develop along
the front over the eastern Gulf which would delay the exit of
moisture from our area before the next system arrives.  If the wave
does not develop, expect a brief period of drying between systems
Monday night into Tuesday morning. On Tuesday,a deep upper trough or
closed upper low will swing SE across the Mississippi Valley with
another period of deep moisture coming up from the Gulf Tuesday
night into Wednesday. The ECMWF is fastest in bringing moisture back
into our region with deep convection arriving from the north Gulf
coast late Tuesday. The GFS starts upslope showers over the southern
mountains before 00Z Wed then widespread showers and some stronger
convection Tuesday night into Wednesday. The GFS fires up deeper
convection as it moves all rain east of I-77 around 00Z Thursday.
The EC has the large band of convection arriving in NE GA by 18Z
with the main batch around 00Z Wednesday. The EC has more waves of
rain and convection passing over before moving it east Wed evening
similar in time to the GFS.  Height falls occur late Wed through
Thursday then after trough axis passes heights make good recovery
Friday and Friday night. Models are backing off precip late in the
week as EC continues the dry trend and GFS takes precip with
shortwave across Virginias late Friday.

Max Temps just below normal Tuesday and Wed then ten degrees below
on Thursday and 5 degrees below Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Scattered convection was firing across the
high terrain early this afternoon, and will move toward KHKY and
remain in the vcny of KAVL for the next couple of hours, warranting
tempos for TSRA at both sites. The bulk of the convection should
remain north of the other terminals, as the air mass is relatively
stable/suppressed across much of Upstate SC and the southern NC
Piedmont. However, there remains enough of a chance at KCLT to
continue the VCSH there, although it has been delayed until 21Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast through the period except at
KAVL/KHKY, where rainfall is forecast to fall today, increasing the
odds for at least MVFR visby restrictions early Saturday. Winds will
generally remain SW at 5-8 kts, with variable and gusty winds near
thunderstorms.

Outlook: Diurnal convection will be possible again on Saturday ahead
of a backdoor cold front that approaches the forecast area from the
north. Another front is expected to bring more significant chances
of showers/storms/restrictions Sunday through Monday and possibly
into Tuesday.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  96%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  90%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JDL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
333 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-501>510-SCZ001>008-010-201945-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-
Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Caldwell Mountains-
Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-Anderson-
333 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop late this afternoon
across the mountains and foothills of the western Carolinas and
northeast Georgia. Storms will be more isolated closer to the
Interstate 85 corridor. The main threat from the storms will be
frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, heavy downpours, gusty winds,
and small hail. A few of the storms may become severe with large hail
and damaging wind gusts. The storms should diminish in coverage and
intensity this evening after sunset.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to relay any reports of hail or wind damage to the
National Weather Service.

GAZ029-NCZ082-SCZ009-011>014-019-201945-
Elbert-Union-York-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
333 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the piedmont of northeast
Georgia, North Carolina, and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
216 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

NCZ505>508-191845-
Greater Rutherford NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Eastern McDowell NC-
Rutherford Mountains NC-
216 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL AND
NORTHERN RUTHERFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 216 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Marion to 14 miles northwest of
Rutherfordton, and moving east at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Marion, Rutherfordton, Chimney Rock State Park, Green Hill, Thermal
City, Glenwood, Union Mills, Shingle Hollow, Sugar Hill and Fero.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, dime size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

LAT...LON 3571 8186 3558 8182 3558 8180 3559 8179
      3559 8177 3561 8176 3560 8173 3533 8198
      3546 8225 3550 8222 3551 8223 3552 8222
      3553 8217 3555 8220 3572 8205
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 287DEG 11KT 3565 8202 3552 8214

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
221 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

NCZ063-064-SCZ001-191845-
Transylvania NC-Southern Jackson NC-Oconee Mountains SC-
221 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN TRANSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND NORTH CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM
EDT...

At 221 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 18
miles southeast of Franklin, or 4 miles south of Cashiers, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Cashiers, Gorges State Park, Lake Jocassee, Highlands, Sapphire, Bad
Creek and Whiteside Mountain.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and dime size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3508 8316 3508 8314 3510 8315 3516 8311
      3510 8283 3506 8287 3505 8291 3503 8292
      3501 8292 3501 8293 3492 8301 3496 8312
      3499 8310 3502 8313 3504 8313 3506 8317
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 299DEG 15KT 3505 8309

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
236 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

NCZ035-056-501-502-191900-
Caldwell Mountains NC-Greater Caldwell NC-Alexander NC-Catawba NC-
236 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CATAWBA...WESTERN
ALEXANDER AND SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

At 236 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 11 miles west of Boomer to 3 miles east of Lenoir
to 7 miles north of Morganton, and moving southeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hickory, Lenoir, St. Stephens, Longview, Sawmills, Granite Falls,
Gamewell, Bethlehem, Hudson and Cajah's Mountain.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

LAT...LON 3607 8141 3604 8140 3602 8135 3600 8133
      3603 8127 3603 8123 3601 8117 3575 8123
      3569 8142 3577 8137 3576 8138 3576 8140
      3579 8145 3578 8155 3582 8160 3582 8162
      3585 8164 3588 8171 3594 8152 3610 8149
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 308DEG 12KT 3602 8145 3591 8147 3585 8165

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
305 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

NCZ052-059-063-064-191930-
Transylvania NC-Haywood NC-Southern Jackson NC-Northern Jackson NC-
305 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT TRANSYLVANIA...SOUTHEASTERN
JACKSON AND SOUTHEASTERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 304 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles north of Brevard
to 17 miles southeast of Sylva, and moving east at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Brevard, Rosman, Graveyard Fields, Looking Glass, Dupont State
Forest, Mount Pisgah, Black Balsam Area, Lake Toxaway, B.R.
Parkway-Black Balsam To Mount Pisgah and B.R. Parkway-Balsam Gap To
Black Balsam Area.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and dime size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.

&&

LAT...LON 3539 8297 3542 8274 3530 8262 3529 8262
      3529 8261 3526 8262 3526 8260 3518 8260
      3515 8264 3512 8316
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 254DEG 21KT 3534 8269 3523 8297

RWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
347 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 PM     HAIL             NW MARSHALL             35.80N 82.69W
05/19/2017  E0.50 INCH       MADISON            NC   POST OFFICE

            MARSHALL POST OFFICE REPORTS MARBLE SIZE HALF INCH HAIL.

&&

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
400 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

NCZ037-192030-
Davie NC-
400 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT DAVIE
COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 400 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 8 miles northeast of Mocksville, or near Bermuda
Run, moving east at 40 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Mocksville, Bermuda Run, Sheffield, Fork Church, Advance and
Farmington.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime
size hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3589 8040 3588 8042 3587 8040 3588 8047
      3589 8069 3605 8069 3604 8049 3606 8046
      3603 8044 3600 8041 3599 8042 3596 8038
      3589 8037
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 272DEG 33KT 3601 8048

RWH