Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

309 
WWUS52 KGSP 220232
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1032 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

NCC021-087-089-175-220245-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-170322T0245Z/
Transylvania NC-Henderson NC-Buncombe NC-Haywood NC-
1032 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM EDT
FOR TRANSYLVANIA...HENDERSON...SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE AND SOUTHEASTERN
HAYWOOD COUNTIES...

At 1030 PM EDT, an outflow of severe winds from the decaying 
thunderstorms stretched along a line extending from 12 miles 
southwest of Downtown Asheville to 7 miles east of Brevard to 16 
miles southwest of Hendersonville. The leading edge of these winds 
were moving east at 35 mph. 40 to 60 mph winds will remain possible 
behind the passing outflow through 1045 PM.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO SIDING AND TREES. 

Locations impacted include...
Hendersonville, Brevard, Arden, Mills River, Fletcher, Flat Rock,
Etowah, Mountain Home, Laurel Park and Rosman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Scattered trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned
area. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3552 8223 3547 8224 3545 8228 3539 8226
      3529 8235 3518 8237 3521 8239 3517 8244
      3517 8249 3513 8268 3507 8275 3507 8278
      3509 8279 3504 8298 3519 8297 3526 8292
      3530 8292 3534 8297 3544 8297 3553 8217
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 267DEG 25KT 3543 8264 3527 8260 3512 8264 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
953 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area later tonight, increasing
the chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms. A few of the
thunderstorms could be severe. Cooler air will return behind the
front to end the work week before another frontal system approaches
the area next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Evening Update...Widespread storms continue across the FA with the
stg/svr cells beginning to exit to the south and east. Most of the
svr reports were large hail...up to 2 inches. Hover the s/w moving
in from the west has created wind damage across the SW NC mtns. The
bulk of the s/w activity has shifted south and west of the CWFA and
MUCAPE values have dropped sigfnt/ly...but there is still enuf
unstable air to generate thunder and small hail...which will likely
require SPS statements over the next few hrs. A broad area of
stratiform precip will cross the area and exit to the east by 06z or
so. Min temps will be tricky outside the mtns thanks to pockets of
rain/hail cooled air. Will adj the hr/ly temps and attempt to create
a new diurnal curve.

730 PM EDT Update...Strong/severe storms with big hail arnd the GSP
area tonight. Reports of car windows smashed and golf ball size or
greater hail. These storms have trained down from the escarpment of
nrn G-ville Co and there are some concerns with high water levels
across local streams as well. Will investigate for possible flood
advisories or SPSs. Strong h5 s/w noted crossing into nrn GA and ern
TN attm will track across the CWFA late tonight thru the early
morning hrs. More strong to severe storms are probable with this
feature producing damaging winds and large hail once again.

500 PM EDT Update...A couple Upstate svr storms are beginning to
break the thermal cap and slowly advance south ahead of a sfc bndry.
Expect isol stg/svr activity to remain across NE GA and the Upstate
through 00z. An advancing acute h5 s/w will enhance activity from
the west and cross the watch area into the late evening. The watch
may need to be expanded east later on.

As of 215 PM: A nearly stationary front remains across the northern
tier of NC and TN attm; it is difficult to pinpoint the front in
many areas, but it is clear VA and KY are north of the front. At any
rate, an amplified upper ridge will move into the Plains states this
evening, and in response high pressure will shift into the Great
Lakes region, driving the front south through our area tonight.

This afternoon, south of the front, warm and seasonably humid
conditions will be present. Mid-level lapse rates are rather strong,
and accordingly forecast CAPE values range from 750-1000 J/kg over
the NE CWFA to nearly 2000 J/kg over parts of SW NC and NE GA. Most
prog soundings continue to feature at least a small cap until around
21z, and this is reflected in reflectivity/QPF output from the CAMs,
which is minimal until then. 0-6km bulk shear values will be on the
order of 30-35 kt around peak heating, and we continue to expect
storms to organize to some degree. SPC has outlined an Enhanced
Risk centered to our west, but extending into a small portion
of our northeast GA territory; this is surrounded by a narrow
Slight Risk region. At least the Enhanced area will receive the
effects of a compact shortwave during the late afternoon hours,
and models are a bit more aggressive in pushing the front south
thru TN than they are over our area. Also of note, meso model runs
have tended to show a forward-propagating cluster developing in the
Tennessee Valley and tracking east this evening. This may present
a secondary threat to our western areas in addition to that posed
by the greater afternoon instability. Our entire CWFA continues
to be included in a Marginal Risk where the threats appear largely
the same, but the coverage will be lower.

Remnant stratiform precip associated with the decayed MCS is
expected to cross the area overnight, perhaps with a few isolated
rumbles of thunder but otherwise just light rainfall. With any
broad frontal boundary progged to push through in the early morning
hours, I am somewhat cautious about advertising a total "scouring"
of low-level moisture. However, essentially all guidance sources,
including MOS, depict the low clouds pushing out by daybreak, and
cooler and drier conditions lasting thru Wednesday. GFS still tries
to develop a little instability over NE GA, but currently this looks
to be an outlier. All precip mention has been dropped. Sunshine
and gradual downsloping should permit high temps near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 2pm EDT Tuesday:  GFS and EC models in good agreement on
synoptic pattern transitioning Wednesday evening to Friday from
northwesterly flow with dry, cool low-level advection to a ridge
centered over the CWA by Friday afternoon.  Dewpoints begin to
improve Friday afternoon as surface high pressure center moves
eastward off the coast and low-level flow veers from easterly to
southeasterly, beginning the southeasterly advection of
moisture into the area.

With a dry boundary layer and ridging aloft, there will be little
chance for precipitation Wednesday night through Friday, with only
an outside chance for some orographic-related showers in far western
parts of the CWA.  Main issue will be chances for frost/freeze
Thursday and Friday mornings.  Current lows show freeze possible
with frost likely for western parts of North Carolina, with less
potential for Piedmont areas.  Drier air and few clouds northeast of GSP
leads to lower forecast lows to the northeast with CLT possibly
reaching low to mid 30s Thursday morning and mid to upper 30s Friday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Tuesday: the medium range fcst picks up at 00z on
Saturday with upper ridging centered over the SE CONUS and a
southern stream closed upper low moving across the southern plains.
Over the next 24 to 48 hrs, the low will approach the fcst area and
as it does, it will lift northward and up over the ridge. As it
does, it's also expected to deamplify and open up as it rides up the
ridge. As we move into early next week, another H5 shortwave will
approach the CWFA from the west. It also appears to deamplify as it
approaches the CWFA.

At the sfc, broad high pressure will be centered well offshore with
moist SLY flow over the region. By early Sunday, a vigorous low will
lift NE towards the Great Lakes and push a moist warm front over the
CWFA. The cold front associated with the low, looks like it will
largely washout as it lays across our northern fringe early Monday.
As we move into Tuesday, another sfc low follows a similar track
towards the Great Lakes and brings another cold front to our
doorstep by the end of the period. As for the sensible wx, POPs
steadily ramp up from the west on Sat with likely POPs over half of
the CWFA by Sunday morning. Some drying is expected on Monday,
however POPs increase again on Tuesday with the approach of the next
frontal system. Temps start out above normal and remain above normal
thru the period.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will cross
the SC sites as well as KCLT thru the overnight. Large hail and
damaging winds could occur at any site thru 09z. CIGS and VSBY are
generally remaining in the VFR range outside of the storms...with
MVFR/IFR conds and erratic gusty winds underneath the individual
cells. The mtn sites should remain out of the strong activity with
isol general tstms possible overnight. Skies clear up around
daybreak with winds shifting n/ly to nne/ly.

Outlook: Low level moisture starts to lift back north and deepen by
Thursday, keeping chances of showers and low cigs into the weekend.

Confidence Table...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       High  98%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  97%     High  97%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...SBK/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...SBK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
337 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051-058-059-062>064-SCZ001>007-010>013-
019-221945-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Swain-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union-Greenwood-
337 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 76 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Showers and thunderstorms develop across the area this afternoon and
continue into the evening. A few of these storms could become severe
producing damaging winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-065-501-503-505-507-509-221945-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-Buncombe-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
337 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms develop across the area this afternoon and
continue into the evening. A few of these storms could become severe
producing damaging winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

SCZ008-221945-
Cherokee-
337 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 76 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Showers and thunderstorms develop across the area this afternoon and
continue into the evening. A few of these storms could become severe
producing damaging winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...Frost/freeze possible. Cold high pressure builds into
the area with temperatures falling into the lower to mid 30s. This
will create the potential for frosty or freezing conditions.
..Friday...Frost/freeze possible. Cold high pressure remains over
the area with temperatures in the mid 30s. This will create the
potential for frosty conditions.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-SCZ009-014-221945-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-
Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-York-Chester-
337 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina,
western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms develop across the area this afternoon and
continue into the evening. A few of these storms could become severe
producing damaging winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...Frost/freeze possible. Cold high pressure builds into
the area with temperatures falling into the lower to mid 30s. This
will create the potential for frosty or freezing conditions.
..Friday...Frost/freeze possible. Cold high pressure remains over
the area with temperatures in the mid 30s. This will create the
potential for frosty conditions.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
914 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

GAZ010-SCZ001-002-004-005-010-220145-
Rabun GA-Greater Pickens SC-Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Oconee SC-
Anderson SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
914 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN RABUN...ANDERSON...
PICKENS AND OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM EDT...

At 913 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 15 miles north of Walhalla to 11 miles north of
Toccoa to 7 miles northeast of Homer, and moving east at 70 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Anderson, Easley, Clemson, Seneca, Walhalla, Pickens, Homeland Park,
Powdersville, Piedmont and Central.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
northeastern Georgia...western North Carolina...and Upstate South
Carolina.

LAT...LON 3428 8277 3434 8279 3437 8284 3448 8288
      3448 8304 3461 8316 3461 8323 3466 8330
      3500 8314 3506 8289 3507 8277 3505 8274
      3507 8257 3501 8260 3501 8254 3498 8255
      3478 8245 3468 8246 3430 8260 3427 8264
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 269DEG 59KT 3497 8316 3474 8328 3440 8341

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
919 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROBBINSVILLE            35.32N 83.81W
03/21/2017                   GRAHAM             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS GRAHAM COUNTY

&&

LVISIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
930 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     HAIL             4 WSW SALISBURY         35.64N 80.55W
03/21/2017  E1.00 INCH       ROWAN              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
940 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

NCZ048-051>053-059-063>065-507-509-510-SCZ002>007-010-220245-
Buncombe NC-Transylvania NC-Swain NC-Rutherford Mountains NC-
Madison NC-Eastern Polk NC-Northern Jackson NC-Haywood NC-
Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-Southern Jackson NC-
Greater Pickens SC-Greater Oconee SC-Pickens Mountains SC-
Anderson SC-Greenville Mountains SC-Spartanburg SC-
Greater Greenville SC-
940 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

...THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS WILL BRING VERY GUSTY WINDS TO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH 1045 PM EDT...

At 938 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a line of showers and
thunderstorms extending from 15 miles northwest of Waynesville to 10
miles southwest of Brevard to near Seneca, and moving east at 20
mph. This line was producing a persistent outflow of 40 mph wind
gusts as it moves east.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenville Downtown, Downtown Asheville, Easley, Clemson,
Hendersonville, Brevard, Pickens, Waynesville, Columbus and Marshall.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in these areas.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
western North Carolina...and Upstate South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3597 8261 3595 8256 3598 8251 3594 8249
      3591 8249 3590 8246 3522 8211 3483 8229
      3455 8298 3479 8293 3481 8290 3492 8291
      3505 8288 3567 8327 3579 8303 3578 8299
      3584 8293 3599 8261
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 226DEG 17KT 3566 8317 3511 8283 3468 8291

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
946 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     HAIL             ROCKWELL                35.55N 80.41W
03/21/2017  E1.00 INCH       ROWAN              NC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND A RAILING BLOWN OFF A FRONT PORCH
            IN ROCKWELL

&&

LVISIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
950 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0841 PM     HAIL             DENVER                  35.53N 81.03W
03/21/2017  E1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            NC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

LVISIN