Severe Thunderstorm Warning 276, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

905 
WWUS52 KGSP 212018
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
418 PM EDT THU SEP 21 2017

GAC137-241-212045-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0276.000000T0000Z-170921T2045Z/
Habersham GA-Rabun GA-
418 PM EDT THU SEP 21 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL HABERSHAM AND SOUTH CENTRAL RABUN COUNTIES...

At 418 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles northwest of
Toccoa, or near Tallulah Falls, moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind 
         damage to trees and power lines. 

Locations impacted include...
Clarkesville, Tallulah Falls, Lake Rabun, Lakemont, Tallulah Gorge
State Park, Hollywood and Turnerville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Scattered trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned
area. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3479 8343 3478 8335 3469 8336 3458 8341
      3458 8364 3459 8364 3461 8365 3462 8364
      3465 8364
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 356DEG 10KT 3470 8339 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MOORE

286 
WWUS52 KGSP 212036
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
436 PM EDT THU SEP 21 2017

GAC241-212045-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0276.000000T0000Z-170921T2045Z/
Rabun GA-
436 PM EDT THU SEP 21 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL RABUN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3475 8343 3473 8342 3473 8338 3472 8336
      3469 8336 3458 8341 3459 8341 3467 8348
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 015DEG 9KT 3466 8340 

$$

GAC137-212045-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0276.000000T0000Z-170921T2045Z/
Habersham GA-
436 PM EDT THU SEP 21 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN HABERSHAM COUNTY...

At 435 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles northwest of
Toccoa, or 4 miles south of Tallulah Falls, moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind 
         damage to trees and power lines. 

Locations impacted include...
Tallulah Falls, Turnerville and Hollywood. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Scattered trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned
area. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3475 8343 3473 8342 3473 8338 3472 8336
      3469 8336 3458 8341 3459 8341 3467 8348
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 015DEG 9KT 3466 8340 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MOORE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
238 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A moist easterly flow will be developing on Friday followed by
drier and stronger high pressure this weekend. Tropical Systems Jose
and Maria will remain off the east coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 225 PM: The sfc pattern remains somewhat stagnant, with high
pressure extending from eastern Canada down the Appalachian chain,
while Tropical Storm Jose remains over the western Atlantic. The
high is associated with a sharp upper ridge. A shortwave trough is
present over the Carolinas, with the axis of best DPVA straddling
the region now, advecting south. Diurnal instability nonetheless
will drive scattered showers and t-storms over the mountains
this aftn. Expect these cells to drift south over time with weak
northerly steering flow. Models do indicate some expansion of
coverage in the southern SC/GA zones later this aftn presumably
as the DPVA exerts its influence. DCAPEs are marginally indicative
of a severe wind threat, though sfc-midlevel delta-theta-E values
are not as remarkable; values are not as high as yesterday when
we did manage a couple severe wind/hail events. I won't totally
rule one out today but the chance appears lower.

Cloud cover and PoPs will diminish with the end of diurnal heating
this evening. The high pressure will bring increasingly easterly
flow tonight but there is not enough low level moisture progged
to suggest nocturnal stratus will result. Mins will remain muggy
and well above normal. Mountain valley fog looks likely to result
once again, with patchy Piedmont fog, though the latter is not
expected to be any more widespread than it was this morning.

Friday will be another day dominated by the incumbent weak high
pressure, featuring above-normal sfc temps. Thicknesses will be
slightly reduced, however, suggesting maxes 2-3 degrees cooler
than Thursday. Still, given recent model performance and plentiful
sunshine, I went toward the warm end of guidance. Modest instability
is progged, and the easterly flow will help initiate storms over
the higher terrain; weak subsidence most likely will cap off any
activity over the NW NC Piedmont. A slight chance PoP still is
warranted over the Upstate and NE GA. Marginally dry profiles
imply an isolated severe storm could develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Thursday: A weak upper low over the Carolinas will
sink south to the FL panhandle on Saturday as ridging strengthens
over the Great Lakes and mid-Atlantic. The center of the ridge moves
east on Sunday and a ridge axis builds south toward the Carolinas.
At the surface, weak high pressure slowly builds to the north then
noses southeast into the area through the period. This sets up weak
northeasterly flow across the area. Drier low level air moves in
from the NE on this flow and subsidence develops as Maria moves
northward well off shore of GA and SC. Instability diminishes
through the period with the drying and subsidence. Expect some
lingering isolated convection across the mountains Saturday where
moisture is best and LFC levels will be low enough for convection to
develop. Dry conditions expected elsewhere on Saturday and all areas
Sunday. Highs and lows will be around 5 degrees above normal
Saturday then maybe drop a degree or two on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Thursday: Dry and warm conditions will continue
into the start of the new workweek with ridging lingering atop the
southern Appalachians.  Temperatures will change little Monday and
Tuesday featuring readings 5 to 7 deg f above climo.  By Wednesday,
even though the ridge center atop the NE conus gets pinched off, the
SE conus remains in a subsidence regime between the Northern Plains/
Rocky Mtn l/vw trough and TC Maria.  At this point, there seems to
be enough s/wv ridging lingering acrs the SE Conus into the new day
7 for the fcst to remain dry.  The streak of above normal
temperatures are expected to linger as well through the end of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Little real change this period compared to
recent days. A shortwave trough is over the area at the start of
the period, and will slightly enhance convective initiation over the
Upstate, in addition to terrain effects which are already producing
SHRA/TSRA over the mountains. TEMPO TSRA at KAVL, with VCSH at
KAND. The trough will gradually lose influence over the area as
it moves south and east tonight, with convection waning following
the loss of heating. Profiles remain rather dry and little cloud
cover is expected. There appears no reason not to expect valley
fog yet again. KAVL's chances will be enhanced if showers occur at
or invof the field this aftn. NE winds will veer a bit overnight
as high pressure exerts increasing influence from the north.

Outlook: Chances for diurnally favored showers and thunderstorms
remain in the fcst again Friday, but precip chances are a bit lower
over the weekend and early next week. Fog and/or low stratus are
likely to return in the mtn valleys each of the next few mornings.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High  97%     High  94%
KAVL       High 100%     High  97%     High  88%     High  90%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  97%     High  97%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  97%     High  97%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...Wimberley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
453 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-220900-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
453 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop across the region
this afternoon and early this evening. The best coverage of
thunderstorms will be along the eastern slopes of the southern
Appalachians. The primary threat with any thunderstorms will be
occasional cloud-to-ground lightning, but a few thunderstorms may
also be accompanied by briefly gusty winds and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
335 PM EDT THU SEP 21 2017

SCZ001-004-005-010-212000-
Greater Pickens SC-Greater Oconee SC-Anderson SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
335 PM EDT THU SEP 21 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ANDERSON...
SOUTHWESTERN PICKENS AND SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM
EDT...

At 334 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Clemson, moving south at 10 mph. Other storms were over Lake Keowee.

Locations to be impacted include...
Clemson, Seneca, Central, Pendleton, Lake Keowee, Lake Hartwell,
Townville and Sandy Springs.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake Hartwell and Lake Keowee are is in the path of this storm.
Cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds will create dangerous
boating conditions. Move to shore immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3462 8301 3485 8295 3485 8290 3481 8290
      3482 8287 3467 8273 3448 8276
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 015DEG 9KT 3467 8283

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
338 PM EDT THU SEP 21 2017

GAZ010-017-SCZ001-212015-
Rabun GA-Habersham GA-Oconee Mountains SC-
338 PM EDT THU SEP 21 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN HABERSHAM...SOUTH
CENTRAL RABUN AND WEST CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 338 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Clayton, or 6 miles northeast of Tallulah Gorge
State Park, moving south at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Tallulah Falls, Lake Rabun, Lakemont, Tallulah Gorge State Park, Long
Creek and Turnerville.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3488 8336 3485 8321 3461 8321 3466 8330
      3467 8331 3467 8332 3468 8332 3468 8333
      3469 8335 3469 8350
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 015DEG 9KT 3481 8330

MOORE