Severe Thunderstorm Warning 270, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

315 
WWUS52 KGSP 051952
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
352 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

NCC021-111-199-052015-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0270.000000T0000Z-170905T2015Z/
McDowell NC-Buncombe NC-Yancey NC-
352 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL...EASTERN BUNCOMBE AND SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY
COUNTIES...

At 352 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles east of
Downtown Asheville, or near Black Mountain, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind 
         damage to trees and power lines. 

Locations impacted include...
Black Mountain, Swannanoa, Old Fort, B.R. Parkway-East Asheville To
Craggy Gardens, Mount Mitchell State Park, B.R. Parkway-Craggy To
Little Switzerland, Montreat, Busick, Sugar Hill and Fairview In
Buncombe County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A few trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned area.
Hail can cause major property damage, especially to vehicles. Seek
shelter inside an interior room.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3554 8203 3552 8214 3553 8217 3552 8223
      3550 8222 3548 8223 3547 8227 3550 8233
      3548 8237 3574 8249 3585 8221
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 249DEG 15KT 3562 8236 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RWH

394 
WWUS52 KGSP 052002
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
402 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

NCC021-111-199-052015-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0270.000000T0000Z-170905T2015Z/
McDowell NC-Buncombe NC-Yancey NC-
402 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL...EASTERN BUNCOMBE AND SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY
COUNTIES...

At 402 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 13 miles east of
Downtown Asheville, or near Black Mountain, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind 
         damage to trees and power lines. 

Locations impacted include...
Black Mountain, Old Fort, Mount Mitchell State Park, B.R.
Parkway-Craggy To Little Switzerland, Montreat, Busick, Swannanoa,
Sugar Hill and B.R. Parkway-East Asheville To Craggy Gardens.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A few trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned area.
Hail can cause major property damage, especially to vehicles. Seek
shelter inside an interior room.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3554 8203 3552 8214 3553 8217 3552 8223
      3550 8222 3548 8223 3547 8227 3550 8233
      3549 8236 3577 8243 3585 8221
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 270DEG 14KT 3563 8231 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RWH

825 
WWUS52 KGSP 052011
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
411 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

NCC021-111-199-052020-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0270.000000T0000Z-170905T2015Z/
McDowell NC-Buncombe NC-Yancey NC-
411 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL...
EASTERN BUNCOMBE AND SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 415
PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3554 8203 3552 8214 3553 8217 3552 8223
      3550 8222 3548 8223 3547 8227 3550 8233
      3549 8236 3577 8243 3585 8221
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 247DEG 14KT 3564 8229 

$$

RWH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
248 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight and bring
widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area through Wednesday.
Dry, cool high pressure will spread back over the region in the wake
of the front on Thursday and linger into the weekend. Moisture will
increase again early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM: A deep upper trough will continue to dig across the
mid-MS Valley tonight, while a cold front pushes across the OH/TN
Valleys. Plenty of pre-frontal convection has developed and will
continue to work its way into the NC mountains thru the rest of the
AFTN hours, then expand east across the Piedmont early this evening.
The 17z SPC mesoanalysis page shows sbCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg across
the CWFA, with effective shear of generally 20 kts or less. As we
head into the evening, bulk shear should increase slightly, making
for at least a marginal risk of quasi-organized storms producing
isolated damaging wind gusts. Convection is expected to wane and
shift east of the area late this evening, while another band of
mainly showers will develop right along the sfc front as it pushes
into the NC mountains. So PoPs will feature these trends thru
tonight. Temps will be near normal in the mountains and slightly
above normal east under mostly cloudy skies.

On Wednesday, the front should push thru the Piedmont during the
morning hours with ongoing showers crossing the area. By early AFTN,
guidance is in decent agreement that the front should be exiting
east of the area, with the better instability to our east. So the
severe threat looks to be east as well. Blending the CONSSHORT PoPs,
I have the hourly PoP trends actually decrease during the AFTN.
Temps will start out somewhat mild, but only rise about 10-15
degrees (resulting in below normal highs) as cool air filters in
behind the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday: After we eliminate lingering shower
activity over the eastern zones on Wednesday evening, we enter the
great lull for the rest of the week, until our anxiety starts to
build through the weekend as to the eventual fate of Irma over the
southeastern United States. The western Carolinas will spend most
of that time under a deep upper long wave trof that deamplifies
Thursday and Friday, but generally supports weak surface high
pressure with an air mass featuring temps around ten degrees below
normal. It should feel like early autumn owing to the dry air
mass. The main upper trof pulls out Friday night and Saturday while
pushing a weak front down from the north. Present indication is that
this boundary will be dry as it drifts into the area from the north
on Saturday. Slow modification of the air mass will allow temps
to creep upward through the weekend. It is at this point that the
forecast of features across the central and southeastern U.S. become
critical to the eventual path of Irma. Both the operational GFS
and ECMWF leave behind a piece of the old upper trof in the form
of a weak cutoff low Saturday night over MS/AL/GA, and it is this
contribution to upper troffing over the central US that erodes
the western portion of the upper ridge that has been keeping Irma
on its generally westward forecast track. Interaction with this
upper feature could turn Irma toward the north. At this point, it
appears that after any turn to the north, the storm would probably
remain far enough away to keep the outer edge of the circulation
from bringing any precip into the fcst area before sunset on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday: The abbreviated medium range forecast
picks up at 00Z Monday and focuses almost exclusively on potential
impacts from Irma. The TC location reflected in our grids reflects
the points that have been collaborated by the National Hurricane
Center and the Weather Prediction Center. The current track and
thinking do bring Irma's track very close to our CWA through day 7,
so the forecast reflects some possible impacts. Sky cover increases
Sunday night, and pops increase from southeast to northwest Monday
morning, with much of the area likely seeing rainfall by Monday
night. Tropical rainfall would likely continue through much of
Tuesday as well. It is too early to accurately assess potential
rainfall totals...and there are some factors in our favor versus
not. The storm motion is fast, which could limit the time our area
sees the tropical rainfall. On the other hand...this is a tropical
system, which have historically been able to be quite prolific rain
producers in this area, even as tropical depressions and remnant
lows. The potential for heavy rainfall is there, and we'll have to
sort out specific totals in the coming days. Current forecasts do
not portray wind as a significant issue, and the winds in the
current forecast are well below tropical storm force. From past
storms, however, we know that saturated soils mean that strong winds
are not necessary to topple a few trees. Tropical cyclone tornadoes
are a potential threat with any tropical system that makes landfall,
but the likelihood of those is too tied to small track details to
make an accurate assessment for our area at this time.

This is going to sound like a broken record, but please stay aware
of the forecast and realize that this is absolutely not set in stone
yet. Any impacts that could be realized would be at least 6 days out
at this point, and there is plenty of time for things to change and
for specific thinking on rainfall totals and tropical threats to be
refined. The track is still incredibly uncertain, and based upon the
intensity and motion of many synoptic features, including the
Bermuda high over the Atlantic Ocean and a couple of upper troughs
that move through the northern/eastern CONUS. The placement of an
upper low over the southeast next weekend continues to be vital to
the track of Irma...as unpredictable Fujiwhara interaction with that
feature will likely determine details of the final track.

Our best advice at this point is to have a plan and an emergency
preparedness kit in case of storm impacts, stay aware of the
forecast, and only turn to trusted sources of guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Convection along and ahead of an approaching
cold front should move in/expand in coverage across the NC mountains
this AFTN, and then across the piedmont late AFTN thru the evening.
Guidance is in decent agreement on the timing and on the scattered
to numerous coverage. So vcts and tempo for TSRA will be carried at
all the TAF sites. The cold front won't cross the area until late
tonight thru midday Wednesday. There is expected to be a lull in
convection overnight, then another band of mainly showers, but
perhaps with embedded TS along the actual front Wednesday morning.
So VCSH or prevailing SHRA will be carried for the second round. The
combination of evening precip and ongoing SWLY moist flow overnight
may support some stratus development. Guidance generally shows MVFR
cigs, especially across the Piedmont Wednesday morning. Winds will
be out of the SW with some low-end gusts the rest of the AFTN, then
become light this evening. The winds will then switch out of the NW
with the front during the pre-dawn hours at KAVL, and right around
daybreak or just after across the Piedmont, but should remain light.

Outlook: A cold front will exit to the east late Wednesday. In the
wake of the front, dry high pressure will return on Thursday
resulting in generally VFR conditions through Saturday.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High  97%     High  94%     High  88%
KGSP       High 100%     High  99%     High  91%     High  88%
KAVL       High  98%     High  90%     Med   74%     Med   75%
KHKY       High 100%     High  95%     High  87%     Med   75%
KGMU       High 100%     High  99%     High  94%     High  94%
KAND       High 100%     High  97%     High  92%     Med   79%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Carroll
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...Carroll
AVIATION...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1238 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ070>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-061645-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
1238 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon
and tonight as a cold front moves into the area. Cloud to ground
lightning, brief heavy rain and gusty winds are the main threats.
Isolated severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, with the
possibility of brief damaging winds during the late afternoon and
evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...Severe weather possible. Thunderstorms will develop
along a cold front as it moves across the area east of the mountains
during the day. A few of the storms could become severe across the
area mainly south and east of Interstate 85, with damaging wind
gusts the main threat.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068-069-501>510-
SCZ001>003-061645-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-
Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
1238 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon and tonight as a cold front moves into the area. Cloud to
ground lightning, brief heavy rain and gusty winds are the main
threats. Isolated severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, with the
possibility of brief damaging winds during the late afternoon and
early evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
235 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

NCZ048-049-053-051900-
Buncombe NC-Yancey NC-Madison NC-
235 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT MADISON...NORTHWESTERN BUNCOMBE
AND WEST CENTRAL YANCEY COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

At 235 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Marshall, moving east at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Marshall, Weaverville, Mars Hill, Faust, Walnut, Luck, Canto, Wolf
Ridge, Barnardsville and Spring Creek.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3599 8242 3570 8238 3568 8289 3569 8290
      3571 8290 3571 8291 3573 8291 3583 8294
      3583 8293
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 262DEG 19KT 3578 8273

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
256 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

NCZ033-049-050-051930-
Yancey NC-Avery NC-Mitchell NC-
256 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MITCHELL...AVERY AND
CENTRAL YANCEY COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 255 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Burnsville, moving east at 40 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Burnsville, Newland, Banner Elk, Elk Park, Bakersville, Beech
Mountain In Avery County, Crossnore, Sugar Mountain, Seven Devils and
Grandfather Mountain State Park.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3624 8190 3623 8191 3621 8190 3619 8188
      3619 8186 3616 8183 3611 8181 3607 8174
      3605 8175 3582 8238 3582 8240 3598 8242
      3614 8214 3611 8213 3610 8208 3613 8205
      3612 8203 3624 8195 3627 8190
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 249DEG 33KT 3595 8228

RWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
332 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

NCZ033-049-050-501>506-052000-
McDowell Mountains NC-Yancey NC-Caldwell Mountains NC-
Burke Mountains NC-Greater Burke NC-Greater Caldwell NC-
Eastern McDowell NC-Avery NC-Mitchell NC-
332 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MCDOWELL...SOUTHEASTERN
MITCHELL...CENTRAL CALDWELL...SOUTHERN AVERY...SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY
AND NORTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 332 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 10 miles southwest of
Blowing Rock to 14 miles south of Burnsville, and moving east at 15
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Lenoir, Marion, Spruce Pine, Gamewell, Old Fort, Cedar Rock,
Crossnore, Linville Falls, B.R. Parkway-Craggy To Little Switzerland
and B.R. Parkway-Linville Falls To Grandfather.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3611 8181 3612 8176 3600 8135 3552 8216
      3556 8224 3560 8229 3562 8227 3565 8229
      3567 8228 3568 8229 3571 8228 3575 8233
      3578 8234 3580 8234 3582 8236 3613 8182
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 286DEG 11KT 3599 8176 3571 8228

RWH