Severe Thunderstorm Warning 245, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

555 
WWUS52 KGSP 232334
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
734 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

GAC105-232344-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0245.000000T0000Z-170724T0000Z/
Elbert GA-
734 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL ELBERT COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore the warning has
been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3420 8293 3424 8280 3404 8264 3399 8286
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 327DEG 10KT 3412 8281 

$$

KRENTZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
507 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will become stationary from west to east across our
region through the middle of the week then dissipate.  This should
result in a little cooler temperature and better chances for rain
over the next few days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 500 PM EDT Sunday: Line of strong/severe convection has moved
through most of our NC counties and is working its way into SE
zones. Atmosphere has stabilized behind the line, but still plenty
of CAPE (>2k J/kg) and dCAPE (>1k J/kg) ahead of the line, so
certainly not over yet. In addition, atmosphere is beginning to
recover over the mountains with sunshine peeking through again and
instability in E TN starting to nose east. HRRR and other CAMs still
bringing convection down from KY/TN into the northern mountains just
after midnight and have held onto this trend for a while. Have made
some minor adjustments to pops based on this but will continue to
monitor the forecast trends. Temps are all over the place with rain-
cooled air behind the convection, but have tried to trend obs into
the near-term forecast.

Otherwise, mountain valley fog, some dense, is expected again and
locations outside of the mountains that receive rainfall may see
some as well. Lows will again be above normal but not quite as warm
as last night.

Convection redevelops Monday as outflow boundaries from the
overnight MCS move across the area. Coverage will be better along
and south of the I-85 corridor where the timing of the boundary
movement will coincide with the higher instability. North of the
corridor instability will be much less leading to only isolated
coverage at best. DCAPE and sfc delta theta-E values while still on
the high side, will not be as high as Sunday. Instability will reach
moderate levels but just barely. Therefore, the chance of severe
storms will be less but not non-existent. Highs will be in the lower
90s outside of the mountain, and while still humid, heat index
values should remain below 100.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday: A weak and nearly stationary cold front
will remain over central GA and SC Monday night into Tuesday,
immediately south of the CWFA. Aloft, we will remain somewhat
under the influence of the northeast CONUS trough, though
without significant embedded vorticity in play early in the
period. More abundant moisture will be present over the south,
near the front, which could increase cloud cover. But otherwise it
appears conditions will be close to climatology, with seasonably
modest instability and weak shear producing a small pulse severe
threat. Partial thicknesses change little from Monday, so max
temps should be similar.

Tuesday night, high pressure will shift into New England in the
wake of the upper trough. A weak upper low is shown to cut off
and remain over the Carolina coast, and allows enough vorticity
to persist over the area that isolated t-storms still could fire
overnight across mainly the Piedmont. The eastward push of the high
will bring cooler air south into the area, which virtually all
guidance indicates will knock max temps down to a couple degrees
below normal, in conjunction with increased cloud cover. Nonetheless
consensus SBCAPE values remain fairly large given still-elevated
sfc dewpoints and good lapse rates afforded by the upper low. PoPs
peak above climo and pulse threats return once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Sunday: The medium range begins Wednesday evening with
a weak closed off 500mb low over the Carolinas and Georgia. As the
next northern stream shortwave crosses the Great Lakes on Thursday,
it kicks this weak low off to the east with the 500mb trough digging
over the East through the weekend. As the Great Lakes shortwave
moves to far eastern Canada, the associated cold front moves slowly
southeast. This front should be nearing the Ohio River early Friday.
As the front approaches from the north, frontal associated
convection will increase first across areas along and north of I-40
Friday afternoon and then spread across much of the rest of the area
Friday evening. The front becomes stationary west to east across our
region through the weekend. The eventual location of the axis of the
trough next weekend varies among the models. This axis location will
have significant influence on our weather. Also, mesoscale
convective systems are expected to develop near the Rockies or
northern Plains states and track southeast in the northwest 500mb
flow toward our region of the nation. Therefore, our weather will
remain unsettled through the weekend. Temperatures will be near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: No changes to the KCLT TAF for the 21z
AMD. Line of TSRA has moved through but with lingering CGs and some
SHRA still moving into the area, will leave the TEMPO as-is.
Otherwise, guidance not very favorable for restrictions outside of
the mountain valleys overnight, so have limited them to KAVL. That
said, they will be possible as most locations will receive rainfall.
Scattered convection expected Monday for all but KHKY. SW wind today
becomes light overnight, then W to SW for Monday.

Outlook: Increasing chances of convection expected through the
middle of next week ahead of a series of weakening cold fronts.
Overnight restrictions will continue in the mountain valleys with
chance increasing elsewhere.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  90%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RWH/TDP
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...RWH/TDP

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
557 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-241000-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
557 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop across
the area this afternoon into early evening. The air mass in place is
expected to become moderately to highly unstable. Therefore, many
of the storms may become severe, capable of producing damaging
wind gusts and large hail. This is in addition to the usual threat
of cloud- to-ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall. While
most of the activity will diminish after sunset, additional
thunderstorms may move into western North Carolina from Tennessee
and Virginia overnight, bringing a second round of thunderstorms
producing lightning and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

ARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
636 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW UNION              34.68N 81.67W
07/23/2017                   UNION              SC   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 49 SOUTHWEST OF UNION.

&&

TPALMER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
636 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

SCZ012-019-232300-
Laurens SC-Greenwood SC-
636 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL LAURENS AND
CENTRAL GREENWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 636 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Greenwood, or near Ninety Six, moving south at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenwood, Ninety Six, Lake Greenwood, Greenwood State Park, Ninety
Six Historic Site, Cross Hill, Coronaca, Kirksey, Dyson and Epworth.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3398 8205 3398 8210 3423 8222 3433 8187
      3432 8187 3430 8190 3424 8191 3420 8194
      3420 8193 3418 8192 3418 8191 3416 8191
      3413 8187 3409 8192 3404 8194 3396 8201
      3395 8205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 340DEG 23KT 3418 8200

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
652 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

GAZ029-232315-
Elbert GA-
652 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ELBERT COUNTY UNTIL 715
PM EDT...

At 651 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles northwest of Elberton, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Elberton, Russell State Park, Lake Russell, Dewy Rose, Sweet City and
Ruckersville.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3401 8291 3401 8294 3403 8294 3404 8298
      3408 8300 3410 8304 3411 8303 3412 8304
      3424 8293 3425 8290 3417 8273 3415 8272
      3400 8289
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 310DEG 13KT 3415 8292

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
701 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

GAZ029-SCZ011-019-232330-
Elbert GA-Abbeville SC-Greenwood SC-
701 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ELBERT...SOUTHERN
ABBEVILLE AND SOUTHWESTERN GREENWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 701 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 3 miles southwest of Greenwood to 5 miles
southeast of Elberton, and moving south at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Abbeville, Calhoun Falls, Troy, Bobby Brown State Park, Lake Strom
Thurmond, Nancy Hart State Park, Middleton, Lake Russell, Promised
Land and Bradley.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3398 8261 3397 8264 3399 8265 3397 8278
      3399 8283 3398 8286 3401 8290 3411 8278
      3420 8220 3398 8210 3399 8215 3397 8218
      3402 8225 3397 8231 3406 8233 3406 8244
      3408 8248 3407 8253 3401 8260 3396 8257
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 341DEG 23KT 3417 8222 3407 8278

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
702 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N CORNWELL            34.62N 81.18W
07/23/2017                   CHESTER            SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES REPORTED DOWN JUST NORTH OF DOWNTOWN CORNWELL, SC.

&&

JPT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
704 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

SCZ019-232330-
Greenwood SC-
704 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN GREENWOOD COUNTY
UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 703 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Greenwood, or 5 miles southwest of Ninety Six
Historic Site, moving south at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Ninety Six Historic Site, Kirksey, Dyson, Epworth and Callison.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3398 8205 3398 8211 3411 8216 3417 8193
      3413 8187 3411 8190 3410 8190 3409 8192
      3404 8194 3400 8199 3397 8201 3396 8205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 345DEG 10KT 3408 8207

KRENTZ