Severe Thunderstorm Warning 218, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

961 
WWUS52 KGSP 190114
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
914 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

NCC071-119-190123-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0218.000000T0000Z-170719T0115Z/
Mecklenburg NC-Gaston NC-
914 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG AND
SOUTHEASTERN GASTON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 915 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty winds
and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3521 8068 3509 8092 3511 8094 3508 8098
      3525 8112 3540 8085
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 056DEG 15KT 3518 8101 

$$

ARK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
751 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary will slowly dissipate over the next
few days as a strong upper ridge gradually builds into the region.
This will bring hot temperatures and a reduction in the coverage of
diurnal showers and thunderstorms through the end of the work week.
Temperatures will begin to moderate by the weekend while enhanced
thunderstorm chances return to the forecast early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 730 pm EDT: Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop
along outflow boundaries, mainly in the Srn Piedmont of NC/metro
CLT, the GSP area, and the srn mountains of NC. Expect areas to
the south to have a continued chance for more storms for the next
several hours as the environment still has sbCAPE on the order of
1500-2500 J/kg. Precip prob will be adjusted accordingly. Cannot
rule out a few more severe storms given all the mid-level dry air
seen on water vapor imagery and dCAPE above 800 J/kg across the
aforementioned area.

Otherwise...a closing upper-level low pressure system will
migrate slowly east across the piedmont and coastal plain of
the Carolinas tonight through Wednesday. Meanwhile, heights will
steadily recover from the west. A weak vorticity lobe will cross
the mountains on the back side of the main trough late today and
this feature, along with weak upslope flow, will generate scattered
convection into the mid-evening along and east of the Blue Ridge,
mainly in SC/northeast GA. After the convection wanes, PoPs will
diminish greatly later this evening and overnight, with the main
overnight issue likely being low clouds and fog in the mountain
river valleys. Low clouds east of the mountains should be less
widespread given the slightly drier boundary layer.

On Wednesday, profiles exhibit less instability, lapse rates are
more modest, and triggering should be weaker. Scattered ridge top
coverage still seems likely as sbCAPE rebounds to 1500+ J/kg in
many areas. 850 mb flow will acquire a light downsloping component
to further limit PoPs east of the high terrain. Anticipate max
temps another 2 degrees above current day maxes, with Heat Index
values likely reaching the upper 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday:  The short term fcst period kicks off on
Wednesday evening amidst gradually building heights from the west
as a large upper anticyclone strengthens over the plains, while an
H5 depression/low slowly meanders along the Carolina coastline.
At the surface, high pressure anchored over the western Atlantic
will remain dominant, likely suppressing convection to some degree.
With that, the fcst will kick off to feature low end pops,
mainly along the high terrain where inhibition will be weakest.
Said pops will taper into the overnight leading into a dry fcst for
Thursday morning.  By that time the upper ridge will have shifted
over the MidSouth region with enough warming aloft to suppress
convection across much if not all of the fcst area for Thursday
therefore pops will remain below mentionable levels.

Meanwhile, the aforementioned H5 depression is progged to
retrograde westward along the SC/FL coastline, eventually moving
inland by Friday.  This feature looks to complicate fcst somewhat
as it pertains to excessive heat, especially on Friday when the
upper ridge weakens slightly as these two features interact.
As a result, fcst pops will be slightly higher on Friday as deep
subsidence is weaker across the mtns/fthills, however remaining dry
over the piedmont.  As for temperatures and heat indices, expecting
highs in the lower/mid 90s across the low terrain, with upper 80s in
the mtn valleys on Thursday.  Further warming is fcst on Friday when
maxes push into the mid/upper 90s for the low terrain, while lower
90s are favored in the mtn valleys.  Given very moist dewpoints
and minimal mixing, heat index values for Thursday and Friday will
be critical, with values approaching 100 and 105 respectively,
the highest of those indices to be observed along/south of I85.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday: Large shifts in the guidance with this
medium range package. Previous forecasts hinged on the expansion of
a strong upper level ridge into the southeast as an upper level
trough axis shifted eastward into the Atlantic. For the latest
cycles though, all major models are now showing the upper trough
over the east coast pinching off an upper level disturbance that
hangs over the southeast and migrates towards the Gulf coast through
the weekend. This will prevent major height rises over the weekend,
so temperatures were trimmed down a few degrees on Saturday and
Sunday, while pops were raised to come closer to climo. Upper level
troughing will return early next week, and with it more moderate
temperatures and a surface front that will provide a focus for some
enhanced diurnal convection, especially Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT: main concern initially is the development of thunderstorms
on an outflow boundary over the CLT metro area...with potential
for the boundary to fill in between a storm near KIPJ and another
near KJQF. For that reason, will keep the TEMPO for thunderstorms
in the initial period and re-evaluate shortly. The arrival of the
outflow boundary will probably bring the wind around to N or NE
for the first hour or two. Thereafter, expect wind to go light and
variable and clouds to thin out to debris cirrus. Overnight, the
weak upslope flow of last night is not expected to be significant
and the boundary layer has dried out somewhat, so think we should
be limited to a possible MVFR fog restriction around the start of
morning operations. Any restriction should burn off quickly. The
models are much less keen on developing any storms on Wednesday
afternoon, so the fcst was kept with only scattered high based
stratocu. Wind should come around to light SW in the afternoon.

Elsewhere: a few storms in the vicinity of the Upstate TAF sites to
begin with.  After that, convective debris clouds and wind going
light/variable overnight. No precip to speak of at the TAF sites
so the potential for any thing more than brief MVFR restrictions
is lower than the past few nights. So, the fcst sticks with an
MVFR fog right around daybreak. The mountain valleys will once
again see the best chance of low clouds and fog. Only KAVL gets
a VCTS for Wednesday afternoon as the environment looks much less
conducive to convection outside the mtns. Light winds will remain
mainly southerly, turning more westerly on Wed.

Outlook: Morning fog development can be expected in the
mountain valleys and in areas that receive rainfall the previous
afternoon/evening. Drier air will likely limit convective coverage
for Thursday, with typical mid-summer conditions returning by
Saturday.

Confidence Table...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High  91%     High  97%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High  97%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  97%     High  97%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High  97%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High  97%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High  94%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Carroll
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...Carroll
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
651 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-191100-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
651 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop again
across the area this afternoon and evening. The main threats will be
from cloud to ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall. However,
a few storms could become briefly severe, with damaging winds being
the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
707 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

SCZ006-007-182330-
Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
707 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL GREENVILLE AND WEST
CENTRAL SPARTANBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 707 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northeast of Greenville Downtown, or over Taylors, moving south
at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenville Downtown, Greenville Eastside, Greer, Mauldin, Taylors,
Five Forks, Paris Mountain State Park, Cherrydale Point, GSP Airport
and Donaldson Center.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3494 8243 3500 8222 3478 8209 3477 8213
      3478 8215 3476 8216 3471 8240
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 343DEG 7KT 3491 8230

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
739 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

NCZ071-072-190015-
Cabarrus NC-Mecklenburg NC-
739 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CABARRUS AND EAST CENTRAL
MECKLENBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

At 739 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Downtown Concord, moving south at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Downtown Concord, Kannapolis, West Concord, Mint Hill, Harrisburg,
Midland, Charlotte Motor Speedway, Coddle Creek Reservoir, Reedy
Creek Park and Mt Pleasant.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3528 8044 3521 8048 3520 8050 3519 8050
      3520 8052 3521 8055 3517 8060 3515 8070
      3545 8073 3549 8051 3530 8042
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 347DEG 15KT 3540 8060

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
740 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

NCZ056-069-190015-
Lincoln NC-Catawba NC-
740 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CATAWBA AND CENTRAL
LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

At 740 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northeast of Lincolnton, or near Maiden, moving south at 5 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Lincolnton, Maiden, Boger City, Iron Station, Denver, Bandys, Crouse
and Lowesville.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3544 8097 3541 8118 3541 8130 3561 8130
      3565 8108
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 348DEG 6KT 3553 8117

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
752 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

NCZ082-190015-
Union NC-
752 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY UNTIL
815 PM EDT...

At 750 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles southwest of Albemarle, or 10 miles east of Midland, moving
southwest at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Unionville, Marshville, Wingate, Fairview and New Salem.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3493 8031 3506 8059 3518 8048 3517 8047
      3516 8044 3517 8042 3516 8041 3518 8037
      3517 8036 3518 8031 3519 8030 3519 8028
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 028DEG 13KT 3518 8033

ARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
817 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             3 SW HENDERSONVILLE     35.30N 82.50W
07/18/2017  E1.00 INCH       HENDERSON          NC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR CUMMINGS COVE COUNTRY CLUB.

&&

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
827 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

NCZ071-190100-
Mecklenburg NC-
827 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MECKLENBURG COUNTY UNTIL
900 PM EDT...

At 827 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Uptown Charlotte, or near The Plaza, moving southwest at 5 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Uptown Charlotte, Central Charlotte, South Charlotte, Southwest
Charlotte, East Charlotte, Northwest Charlotte, Freedom Park, Reedy
Creek Park, The Plaza and Charlotte Douglas Airport.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.

&&

LAT...LON 3506 8074 3505 8075 3518 8100 3520 8101
      3521 8100 3535 8084 3525 8066
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 031DEG 4KT 3524 8080

ARK