Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

379 
WWUS52 KGSP 152108
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
508 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

SCC023-152130-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0200.000000T0000Z-170715T2130Z/
Chester SC-
508 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHESTER COUNTY...

At 508 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 14 miles southwest
of Lancaster, or near Great Falls, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind 
         damage to trees and power lines. 

Locations impacted include...
Great Falls, Fort Lawn, Richburg and Fishing Creek Reservoir. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Brief damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines over small
areas. A brief period of large hail is also possible. Seek shelter
inside an interior room.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 8089 3463 8090 3462 8089 3460 8089
      3458 8088 3455 8087 3454 8088 3455 8097
      3456 8111 3473 8112 3473 8087 3469 8087
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 278DEG 18KT 3457 8095 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MOORE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
213 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will persist through the weekend, with
scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day.
A cold front will move into the region from the northwest and stall
near the area through Sunday. Another cold front will approach on
Monday and move southeast of the area on Tuesday, with drier and
warmer conditions arriving by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday: The weak cold front has generally moved
south of the area, as evidenced by WNW winds across most of the
Piedmont, but moisture associated with the upper trough will
continue to move across the area with high PW values near 2" and a
potent little vort max swinging through. Deep layer shear isn't
impressive, and while we do have some steering flow, convective
development continues  upstream of current convection, leading to
training storms and a heavy rain threat (with associated Slight Risk
of Excessive Rain from WPC). We remain in Marginal Risk for the SPC
outlook with a low-end wind and hail threat (with slightly improved
lapse rates aloft and some area for hail growth). Despite the
proximity of the front, dCAPEs are actually fairly low, generally
<700J/kg across the area, so storms might not be able to get as
intense as quickly as they did yesterday...which also leads one to
believe this might evolve into more of a heavy rain threat. Basin-
average QPFs are not that all impressive so flash flooding would be
localized, so do not really feel a Flash Flood Watch is warranted.

Convection should wane overnight, but should pick up at least across
southern zones on Sunday. Some of the hires models want to develop
some showery activity across the northern tier as well so have kept
pops a little higher, but these may need to be pulled back down with
later forecasts. Temperatures will be improving through the period,
with highs today near seasonal normals, lows tonight just slightly
above and highs tomorrow actually a couple of degrees below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday: A shortwave embedded in upper longwave
troughing will cross the area Sunday night as a surface front
settles over the forecast area. The front will wash out on Monday as
heights aloft fall and another potent shortwave rounds the trough
base, so widespread showers and thunderstorms are anticipated once
again on Monday. Another front will descend from the northwest on
Monday night and will stall near the forecast area Tuesday,
providing a focus for enhanced diurnal convection in the afternoon.
Mid-level dry air makes an entrance Monday and Tuesday, and with
respectable instability both days, some type of wet microburst
threat is possible. Temperatures will be near climo.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Saturday: The medium range begins Tuesday night
immediately post-frontal passage with a few lingering showers and
thunderstorms. Upper troughing lifts by Wednesday, though there is
some model disagreement in just how far the front is able to
progress as it washes out on Wednesday. Strong upper ridging builds
over the central Plains on Wednesday to exert some influence on the
southeast, though, so maximum temperatures were increased and
"silent 10" pops remain. The extent to which drier air will be able
to work in as the ridge continues to build Thursday and Friday is
also uncertain, but enough moisture lingers in the global model
solutions that slight chance pops were maintained both afternoons. A
back door front dips down from the northeast as upper heights fall
again on Saturday, bringing pops close to climo back into the
forecast. Maximum and minimum temperatures during the middle and end
of next week will be above climo through the period, though the
extent is uncertain due to model inconsistencies in handling the
sprawling high over the central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Convection developing and becoming more
widespread across the area, though still fairly sparse across most
of the Piedmont. Have started all TAFs but KAND with VCTS (KAND at
19z) but with TEMPO TSRA and VRB gusty winds. As the front sags
south, convection should diminish 00-03z or so. Expect another round
of restrictions, probably LIFR, at KAVL, and have brough in some VFR
fog at KHKY, but would not be surprised if other TAFs have morning
fog restrictions as well. With the front stalling across southern
areas, should see an increase in convection again Sunday late
morning, and have introduced PROB30s to account for this. Winds
starting out W to WNW at TAF time, should veer around clockwise to
N/NE/ENE through the end of the period.

Outlook: Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms
are expected through Monday across the area, with higher coverage in
the mountains. Morning fog development can be expected in the
mountain valleys and in areas that receive rainfall the previous
afternoon/evening.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  97%     Med   71%     High  85%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Carroll
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...Carroll
LONG TERM...Carroll
AVIATION...TDP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
507 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-160915-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
507 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop over the
area this afternoon and evening. A few of the storms are expected to
become briefly severe, with damaging downburst winds being the main
threat, although hail to the size of quarters could also occur.
Locally heavy rainfall and frequent cloud to ground lightning can
occur with any thunderstorm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
405 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

GAZ026-028-SCZ004-010-152030-
Hart GA-Franklin GA-Greater Oconee SC-Anderson SC-
405 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...NORTHERN
HART...WEST CENTRAL ANDERSON AND SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL
430 PM EDT...

At 405 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Hartwell, or near Tugaloo State Park, moving east
at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hartwell, Reed Creek, Lavonia, Gumlog, Tugaloo State Park, Lake
Hartwell, Bowersville, Townville, Fair Play and Sadlers Creek State
Park.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Lake Hartwell is in the path of this storm. Cloud to ground
lightning and gusty winds will create dangerous boating conditions.
Move to shore immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3431 8283 3439 8314 3453 8312 3454 8310
      3455 8311 3457 8311 3458 8279
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 277DEG 11KT 3447 8304

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
410 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW HENDERSONVILLE     35.30N 82.48W
07/15/2017                   HENDERSON          NC   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CALL CENTER REPORTED A FEW TREES DOWN IN VALLEY
            HILL.

&&

LEC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
412 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

GAZ017-018-026-152045-
Franklin GA-Stephens GA-Habersham GA-
412 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...STEPHENS
AND SOUTHERN HABERSHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 411 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Clarkesville, or over Cornelia, moving east at 25
mph. Another strong storm was located over the southwestern corner
of Stephens County, also moving east at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Toccoa, Cornelia, Baldwin, Demorest, Mount Airy, Alto, Raoul,
Boydville and Eastanolee.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3462 8324 3461 8323 3461 8321 3441 8321
      3443 8338 3446 8340 3448 8347 3449 8353
      3449 8355 3445 8359 3445 8362 3459 8362
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 266DEG 21KT 3451 8352

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
414 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WSW TUXEDO            35.18N 82.51W
07/15/2017                   HENDERSON          NC   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CALL CENTER REPORTED A FEW TREES DOWN IN GREEN
            RIVER.

&&

LEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
430 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE FAIRVIEW          35.09N 80.51W
07/15/2017                   UNION              NC   PUBLIC

            THE TOWN OF UNIONVILLE HAS MUCH DAMAGE WITH MANY TREES
            DOWN...SEVERAL HOUSES WITH ROOF DAMAGE AND 5 CHICKEN
            HOUSES EITHER HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. THE DAMAGE IS
            IN TOWN AND TRAILS OUT OF TOWN AS WELL.

&&

OUTLAW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
431 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

SCZ014-152100-
Chester SC-
431 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CHESTER COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM
EDT...

At 431 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Chester, or 7 miles east of Carlisle, moving east
at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Chester, Lowrys, Chester State Park, Blackstock, Richburg, Leeds,
Cornwell and Edgemoor.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3457 8126 3457 8139 3458 8143 3460 8142
      3464 8142 3464 8143 3482 8142 3482 8097
      3455 8110
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 279DEG 8KT 3459 8133

MOORE