Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

333 
WWUS52 KGSP 060010
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
810 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

GAC105-147-SCC001-007-060020-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0155.000000T0000Z-170706T0030Z/
Elbert GA-Hart GA-Anderson SC-Abbeville SC-
810 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN ELBERT...SOUTHEASTERN
HART...SOUTHWESTERN ANDERSON AND CENTRAL ABBEVILLE COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled. However gusty winds are 
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3408 8248 3408 8249 3409 8265 3417 8304
      3440 8300 3438 8239 3407 8239
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 281DEG 20KT 3423 8267 

$$

JPT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
429 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad high pressure will remain centered over the western Atlantic
while a slow moving, weak frontal zone lingers over the region
into Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected
each day. A second front will push through the area this weekend
with somewhat drier and cooler air briefly settling in behind it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 420 pm: Numerous strong convective cells are initiating along a
series of E/SE moving outflow boundaries from the northern SC
Piedmont into the NC foothills and far western Piedmont. It appears
there is very little change in the thermodynamic environment
downstream of this activity, so pops have been increased to likely
along the I-77 corridor. Meanwhile, a weakening line of convection
continues to push into far western NC from east TN, and despite the
weakening trend, likely pops appear warranted across much of the NC
mtns over the next couple of hours. Considering the atmosphere  is
getting a bit overturned over the foothills, it's not entirely
obvious what impact the remnant outflow associated with this feature
will have on convective trends into early evening, but solid chance
pops will be maintained across the foothills in the wake of the
current activity. Farther south, the cu field appears uninspired to
say the least across much of the Upstate and northeast GA foothills
and Piedmont, and with outflow propagation from NC convection having
a strong eastward component, this trend may persist into the
evening. Therefore, pops ranging from 10-30 percent will be held
over these areas. A few brief severe wind reports will remain
possible with the strongest cells.

As long as the axis of a positively tilted upper trof remains
to our west, keeping the wrn Carolinas in a WSW flow aloft with
plenty of low level moisture in place, expect our weather to be
persistent over the next 24 hours. That means more showers and
storms lingering into the late evening hours with more activity
upstream closer to the trof axis, which would drift in from the
west over the mtns toward daybreak. On Thursday, new convection
would break out across the mtns during midday, or perhaps
closer to outflows or cloudy/clear boundaries. We could see some
extra enhancement to convective potential in the afternoon as a
better upper wave moves in from the west with the main trof axis
approaching slowly. The models suggest the best chances over the
NC mtns, and that seems reasonable, but suspect as in the last
few days, the better instability to the S will be fuel enough for
better coverage than indicated in the guidance across northeast
GA and upstate SC. Cannot rule out a few more severe storms, with
damaging wind the main threat, given mid-level dry air and decent
dCAPE once again. Temps will continue to run a bit above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday:  Complicated portion in this part of the
forecast cycle. There should be an ongoing slug of showers and
thunderstorms early Thursday evening and mainly in the mountains of
western North Carolina. Elsewhere chance or slight chance in the
evening. The precipitation will be tied into weak surface
convergence, the end of the diurnal heating cycle, and upslope
flow in the mountains.

We will then draw back on the POPS, except maintaining middle of the
road chance POPS in the mountains, with the approach of an upper
level trough and pre-frontal wind shift. We brought back some token
small chance values elsewhere.

The Friday and Saturday portion of the forecast remains iffy! There
still in not a large QPF response from the NAM and GFS, although
they have had an uptick in precipitation. The older European model
and latest Canadian model were a tad more robust for the
precipitation potential Friday. Considering we should still be moist
and unstable, with heights falling and lapse rates steepening, plus
preliminary wind shift line and channeled vorticity, all lead
to a continuation of precipitation potential. We have tapered
POPS down by evening with the idea that the initial primary
forcing will have passed.

Once again late Friday night we go back to the mountains of western
North Carolina for an uptick in showers and thunderstorms, with a
secondary wind shift dropping into the area. We then carry chance
POPS into Saturday across the remainder of the forecast area (FA).
Perhaps once all the models reach more of a consensus, POPS will go
up across the board on Friday.

Our thermal pattern does not show a great deal of change, although a
bit lower on Saturday. We will follow the trends as they appear to
fit the idea of the ongoing forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 155 PM Wed: This period begins Saturday evening with the 500mb
trough over the East with axis along or near the Appalachians. The
surface cold front pushes south of I-85 and becomes stationary from
Alabama to GA near Savannah.  As weak high pressure predominates
north of the front Sunday and Monday, slightly drier air will keep
convection at a minimum. Heights will slowly rise Monday and Tuesday
and a few models are showing the stationary front lifting north.
Although timing is different among the models, they are showing
another cold front crossing the Great Lakes Monday night or Tuesday.
This will focus more convection over our region in mid week as weak
high pressure loses its influence. The GFS is most progressive in
taking the front all the way to the Carolinas Wednesday night. By
Wed night on the EC, the front would still be from near Memphis to
Indiana.  Toward the end of the week, the upper ridge remains over
the four corners area while models show the trough reasserts itself
over the East.

Max Temps will be a couple degrees below normal and Min Temps near
or slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT: VFR for the time being, but a small potential
for a temporary MVFR ceiling for the first hour or
two. Convection-allowing models not as keen on developing precip
across the CLT metro area later today as they were yesterday,
but prefer to keep a TEMPO in the fcst rather than just a VCTS as
a slim majority favors a round of thunderstorms beginning approx
21Z. This could be a bit too early depending on the movement of
the numerous storms upstream over ern TN/nw GA. Wind should stay
light SW. Will keep a vicinity shower for a few hours afterward
into the late evening, thereafter just mid/high level convective
debris and a light SW wind. Could see another round of low stratus
around daybreak if we get the precip today, but chances are too
low to mention. The SW flow looks a bit stronger on Thursday.

Elsewhere: Similar conditions to KCLT. Confidence high enough
to include TSRA at KAVL, but not the other sites where a
VCTS is kept. Will monitor convective trends and amend TAFs
accordingly. KAVL and KHKY have the best chance of seeing any
restrictions overnight.

Outlook: Moist and unsettled weather will continue through
the late week. Thunderstorms may become more numerous Thursday
afternoon into Friday as an upper wave passes followed by a cold
front. Nocturnal restrictions can be expected in any locations
receiving heavy rainfall, and also in the mountain valleys. Some
drying is indicated this weekend.

Confidence Table...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  81%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
720 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-061100-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
720 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue around the region
until just after dark, before waning. Some of the thunderstorms are
expected to produce damaging winds, large hail, torrential rain and
cloud-to-ground lightning. The heavy rain may cause local flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, or flash flooding to our office.

Sturey

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
701 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

NCZ082-052315-
Union NC-
701 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY UNTIL
720 PM EDT...

At 700 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northeast of Monroe, or 5 miles north of Marshville, moving
east at 30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Unionville, Fairview In Union County and New Salem.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and dime size hail will be possible over
these areas.

LAT...LON 3503 8030 3501 8052 3515 8050 3517 8044
      3516 8044 3517 8042 3516 8041 3518 8037
      3517 8036 3518 8031 3519 8030 3519 8028
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 268DEG 24KT 3507 8039

JPT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
705 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

GAZ026-028-029-SCZ010-052345-
Elbert GA-Hart GA-Franklin GA-Anderson SC-
705 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...
NORTHWESTERN ELBERT...HART AND SOUTHWESTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL
745 PM EDT...

At 704 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southeast of Carnesville, or near Royston, moving east at 25
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hartwell, Royston, Bowman, Canon, Franklin Springs, Bowersville,
Russell State Park, Victoria Bryant State Park, Lake Russell and Dewy
Rose.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible over
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3416 8310 3417 8310 3419 8309 3420 8309
      3421 8308 3423 8308 3426 8311 3427 8311
      3424 8317 3425 8317 3439 8320 3440 8275
      3412 8273
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 268DEG 21KT 3425 8310

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
719 PM EDT WED JUL 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W ASHEVILLE           35.58N 82.63W
07/05/2017                   BUNCOMBE           NC   PUBLIC

            FEW TREES AND LIMBS DOWN WEST OF ASHEVILLE

&&

CARROLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
724 PM EDT WED JUL 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE MONROE             34.98N 80.53W
07/05/2017                   UNION              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE AND POWER LINES DOWN ON ELIZABETH AVE.

&&

CARROLL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
733 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

NCZ070-071-082-SCZ009-014-060015-
Gaston NC-Union NC-Mecklenburg NC-York SC-Chester SC-
733 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG...SOUTH
CENTRAL GASTON...WEST CENTRAL UNION...NORTHEASTERN CHESTER AND
EASTERN YORK COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

At 733 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northeast of York, or 5 miles southeast of Clover, moving
southeast at 30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Rock Hill, York, Gastonia, Weddington, Fort Mill, Pineville, South
Gastonia, Tega Cay, Clover and Newport.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and small hail will be possible over these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3494 8078 3508 8091 3503 8090 3501 8091
      3499 8089 3494 8087 3487 8088 3484 8087
      3483 8090 3480 8089 3473 8094 3503 8135
      3525 8119 3503 8071
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 302DEG 25KT 3506 8115

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
736 PM EDT WED JUL 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NE PAW CREEK          35.33N 80.89W
07/05/2017                   MECKLENBURG        NC   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREE DOWN ON POWER LINES ON MIRANDA RD. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

CARROLL