Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

041 
WWUS52 KGSP 052302
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
702 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

NCC179-052330-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-170705T2330Z/
Union NC-
702 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY...

At 702 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles southeast of
Monroe, or 4 miles south of Wingate, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines. 

Locations impacted include...
Monroe, Wingate, Marshville, Mineral Springs, Sturdivants, Trinity
and Wesley Chapel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Scattered trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned
area. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 8032 3482 8069 3500 8069 3504 8030
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 270DEG 21KT 3492 8045 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JPT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
429 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad high pressure will remain centered over the western Atlantic
while a slow moving, weak frontal zone lingers over the region
into Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected
each day. A second front will push through the area this weekend
with somewhat drier and cooler air briefly settling in behind it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 420 pm: Numerous strong convective cells are initiating along a
series of E/SE moving outflow boundaries from the northern SC
Piedmont into the NC foothills and far western Piedmont. It appears
there is very little change in the thermodynamic environment
downstream of this activity, so pops have been increased to likely
along the I-77 corridor. Meanwhile, a weakening line of convection
continues to push into far western NC from east TN, and despite the
weakening trend, likely pops appear warranted across much of the NC
mtns over the next couple of hours. Considering the atmosphere  is
getting a bit overturned over the foothills, it's not entirely
obvious what impact the remnant outflow associated with this feature
will have on convective trends into early evening, but solid chance
pops will be maintained across the foothills in the wake of the
current activity. Farther south, the cu field appears uninspired to
say the least across much of the Upstate and northeast GA foothills
and Piedmont, and with outflow propagation from NC convection having
a strong eastward component, this trend may persist into the
evening. Therefore, pops ranging from 10-30 percent will be held
over these areas. A few brief severe wind reports will remain
possible with the strongest cells.

As long as the axis of a positively tilted upper trof remains
to our west, keeping the wrn Carolinas in a WSW flow aloft with
plenty of low level moisture in place, expect our weather to be
persistent over the next 24 hours. That means more showers and
storms lingering into the late evening hours with more activity
upstream closer to the trof axis, which would drift in from the
west over the mtns toward daybreak. On Thursday, new convection
would break out across the mtns during midday, or perhaps
closer to outflows or cloudy/clear boundaries. We could see some
extra enhancement to convective potential in the afternoon as a
better upper wave moves in from the west with the main trof axis
approaching slowly. The models suggest the best chances over the
NC mtns, and that seems reasonable, but suspect as in the last
few days, the better instability to the S will be fuel enough for
better coverage than indicated in the guidance across northeast
GA and upstate SC. Cannot rule out a few more severe storms, with
damaging wind the main threat, given mid-level dry air and decent
dCAPE once again. Temps will continue to run a bit above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday:  Complicated portion in this part of the
forecast cycle. There should be an ongoing slug of showers and
thunderstorms early Thursday evening and mainly in the mountains of
western North Carolina. Elsewhere chance or slight chance in the
evening. The precipitation will be tied into weak surface
convergence, the end of the diurnal heating cycle, and upslope
flow in the mountains.

We will then draw back on the POPS, except maintaining middle of the
road chance POPS in the mountains, with the approach of an upper
level trough and pre-frontal wind shift. We brought back some token
small chance values elsewhere.

The Friday and Saturday portion of the forecast remains iffy! There
still in not a large QPF response from the NAM and GFS, although
they have had an uptick in precipitation. The older European model
and latest Canadian model were a tad more robust for the
precipitation potential Friday. Considering we should still be moist
and unstable, with heights falling and lapse rates steepening, plus
preliminary wind shift line and channeled vorticity, all lead
to a continuation of precipitation potential. We have tapered
POPS down by evening with the idea that the initial primary
forcing will have passed.

Once again late Friday night we go back to the mountains of western
North Carolina for an uptick in showers and thunderstorms, with a
secondary wind shift dropping into the area. We then carry chance
POPS into Saturday across the remainder of the forecast area (FA).
Perhaps once all the models reach more of a consensus, POPS will go
up across the board on Friday.

Our thermal pattern does not show a great deal of change, although a
bit lower on Saturday. We will follow the trends as they appear to
fit the idea of the ongoing forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 155 PM Wed: This period begins Saturday evening with the 500mb
trough over the East with axis along or near the Appalachians. The
surface cold front pushes south of I-85 and becomes stationary from
Alabama to GA near Savannah.  As weak high pressure predominates
north of the front Sunday and Monday, slightly drier air will keep
convection at a minimum. Heights will slowly rise Monday and Tuesday
and a few models are showing the stationary front lifting north.
Although timing is different among the models, they are showing
another cold front crossing the Great Lakes Monday night or Tuesday.
This will focus more convection over our region in mid week as weak
high pressure loses its influence. The GFS is most progressive in
taking the front all the way to the Carolinas Wednesday night. By
Wed night on the EC, the front would still be from near Memphis to
Indiana.  Toward the end of the week, the upper ridge remains over
the four corners area while models show the trough reasserts itself
over the East.

Max Temps will be a couple degrees below normal and Min Temps near
or slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT: VFR for the time being, but a small potential
for a temporary MVFR ceiling for the first hour or
two. Convection-allowing models not as keen on developing precip
across the CLT metro area later today as they were yesterday,
but prefer to keep a TEMPO in the fcst rather than just a VCTS as
a slim majority favors a round of thunderstorms beginning approx
21Z. This could be a bit too early depending on the movement of
the numerous storms upstream over ern TN/nw GA. Wind should stay
light SW. Will keep a vicinity shower for a few hours afterward
into the late evening, thereafter just mid/high level convective
debris and a light SW wind. Could see another round of low stratus
around daybreak if we get the precip today, but chances are too
low to mention. The SW flow looks a bit stronger on Thursday.

Elsewhere: Similar conditions to KCLT. Confidence high enough
to include TSRA at KAVL, but not the other sites where a
VCTS is kept. Will monitor convective trends and amend TAFs
accordingly. KAVL and KHKY have the best chance of seeing any
restrictions overnight.

Outlook: Moist and unsettled weather will continue through
the late week. Thunderstorms may become more numerous Thursday
afternoon into Friday as an upper wave passes followed by a cold
front. Nocturnal restrictions can be expected in any locations
receiving heavy rainfall, and also in the mountain valleys. Some
drying is indicated this weekend.

Confidence Table...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  81%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
640 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-061045-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
640 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon.
Dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning is possible with any of these
storms. However, conditions will be favorable for a few of them to
produce brief damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of damaging
winds to our office.

Wimberley

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
630 PM EDT WED JUL 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N DYSARTSVILLE        35.66N 81.89W
07/05/2017                   MCDOWELL           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE ON DEER PARK RESORT DR OFF DEER PARK
            RD.

&&

CARROLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
631 PM EDT WED JUL 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N DYSARTSVILLE        35.66N 81.89W
07/05/2017                   MCDOWELL           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWN ON DEER PARK RD.

&&

CARROLL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
633 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

NCZ082-052315-
Union NC-
633 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN UNION COUNTY UNTIL 715
PM EDT...

At 633 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Monroe, or near Mineral Springs, moving east at 25
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Monroe, Wingate, Waxhaw, Marshville, Mineral Springs, Sturdivants,
Wesley Chapel, Marvin, Weddington and Jaars.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and small hail will be possible over these
areas.

LAT...LON 3481 8032 3483 8080 3494 8078 3496 8081
      3499 8080 3502 8030
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 275DEG 21KT 3492 8069

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
634 PM EDT WED JUL 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE HARRISBURG        35.30N 80.65W
07/05/2017                   CABARRUS           NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE DOWN ON CAR ON 4800 BLOCK OF SHERBORNE DR.

&&

CARROLL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
638 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

NCZ068-070-SCZ008-009-052330-
Gaston NC-Cleveland NC-York SC-Cherokee SC-
638 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CLEVELAND...SOUTH
CENTRAL GASTON...NORTHWESTERN YORK AND NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES
UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 637 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southeast of Shelby, or near Kings Mountain State Park, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
York, Kings Mountain, South Gastonia, Clover, Town Of Lake Wylie,
Grover, Crowders Mountain State Park, Kings Mountain State Park,
Newport and Crowders.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible over
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3515 8102 3515 8104 3513 8105 3512 8104
      3493 8115 3511 8150 3528 8142 3517 8101
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 293DEG 20KT 3516 8138

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
639 PM EDT WED JUL 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNW HICKORY           35.81N 81.35W
07/05/2017                   CALDWELL           NC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LARGE TREE UPROOTED ON ICARD DAM RD AT ADDISON LN. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

CARROLL