Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

520 
WWUS52 KGSP 141829
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
229 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

NCC175-SCC045-077-141900-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0124.000000T0000Z-170614T1900Z/
Transylvania NC-Greenville SC-Pickens SC-
229 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN TRANSYLVANIA...NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE AND
NORTHWESTERN PICKENS COUNTIES...

At 228 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 12 miles south of
Brevard, or 5 miles northwest of Table Rock State Park, moving south
at 5 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind 
         damage to trees and power lines. 

Locations impacted include...
Rosman, Table Rock State Park, Sassafras Mountain, Rocky Bottom,
Caesars Head State Park, Connestee, Lake Jocassee, Gorges State Park
and Jocassee Gorges.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Scattered trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned
area. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

This storm is producing frequent and intense lightning. Turn off
electrical appliances. Do not use corded telephones. Do not take a
bath or shower.

This storms is also producing extremely heavy rainfall. Flooding of
drainage ditches and low lying areas may occur. Small streams will
rise rapidly. Do not drive through areas where water is flowing over
the road.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3515 8288 3517 8269 3505 8260 3503 8259
      3500 8292 3501 8291 3501 8292 3505 8290
      3505 8291 3506 8290
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 001DEG 5KT 3506 8278 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HG

249 
WWUS52 KGSP 141840
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
240 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

NCC175-SCC045-141849-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0124.000000T0000Z-170614T1900Z/
Transylvania NC-Greenville SC-
240 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN TRANSYLVANIA AND
NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3507 8280 3507 8278 3506 8276 3505 8275
      3505 8274 3506 8273 3505 8272 3506 8271
      3506 8267 3503 8264 3500 8289 3504 8290
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 342DEG 11KT 3501 8277 

$$

SCC077-141900-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0124.000000T0000Z-170614T1900Z/
Pickens SC-
240 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN PICKENS COUNTY...

At 239 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles north of
Pickens, or 4 miles southwest of Table Rock State Park, moving south
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind 
         damage to trees and power lines. 

Locations impacted include...
Table Rock State Park, Sassafras Mountain, Rocky Bottom and Jocassee
Gorges.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Scattered trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned
area. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

This storm is producing frequent and intense lightning. Turn off
electrical appliances. Do not use corded telephones. Do not take a
bath or shower.

This storms is also producing extremely heavy rainfall. Flooding of
drainage ditches and low lying areas may occur. Small streams will
rise rapidly. Do not drive through areas where water is flowing over
the road.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3507 8280 3507 8278 3506 8276 3505 8275
      3505 8274 3506 8273 3505 8272 3506 8271
      3506 8267 3503 8264 3500 8289 3504 8290
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 342DEG 11KT 3501 8277 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HG

634 
WWUS52 KGSP 141845
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
245 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

SCC077-141854-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0124.000000T0000Z-170614T1900Z/
Pickens SC-
245 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN PICKENS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled. However, heavy rain is 
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3507 8280 3507 8278 3506 8276 3505 8275
      3505 8274 3506 8273 3505 8272 3506 8271
      3506 8267 3503 8264 3500 8289 3504 8290
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 011DEG 2KT 3501 8277 

$$

HG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
207 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Subtropical high pressure centered to our east will continue to
weaken, allowing increasing moisture to spread over the forecast
area from the south. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
increase each day through the work week and remain elevated through
the weekend. A more well-defined cold front will approach the area
early next week. Maximum and minimum temperatures will remain above
average through the entire forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM: This afternoon, we'll remain in a similar pattern to
that seen yesterday, still with the potential for strong to severe
storms. A flat upper ridge persists over the Southeast, with a
weakness in the form of a shortwave centered over VA/NC. Profiles
are uncapped across the area and storms are growing in coverage over
the high terrain. Under a very weak NW flow these cells will drift
into the Foothills with time. Latest meso model runs depict little
upscale growth along the updrafts, but sfc-delta theta-E values are
high enough to expect some severe downbursts are possible even from
discrete cells. A shear axis does exist over the southern CWFA,
associated with an offshore trough, and this too may focus some
in-situ development, posing similar threats.

Tonight the axis of the upper ridge continues to advance toward
the East Coast, and a backdoor cold front sags further south into
the Mid-Atlantic region at the leading edge of the associated
sfc high. Patchy fog is expected to develop over the wet soils
left behind after this afternoon's storms.  However, before that
front pushes as far south as our area, the high moves offshore
and heights begin to rise over the Appalachians and Piedmont. I
can't say this will have a tremendous effect on our sensible wx;
we will again see diurnal destabilization and scattered to numerous
tstms under a weak shear profile, like that today. Even the same
shear axis will persist across northern SC. Most models develop
slightly more QPF tomorrow, perhaps attributable to our being on
the upstream side of the ridge vs. the downstream side today. There
is the additional possibility that the shortwave moving acrs the
Tenn Valley will drive better convective organization to our west,
and that a cluster of storms could move into the NC mtns in the
evening. This is the main reason our west is included in the
marginal risk on the SPC Day 2 outlook.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Wednesday: Upper-level support will a bit better
Friday and Saturday with troughiness developing over, and just west
of, the southern Appalachians with associated upper level divergence
increasing slightly atop the region. The first upper level vorticity
lobe will reach the western mountains during the nighttime hours
Thursday night, and might keep some degree of precipitation going
there through the early morning hours Friday. In addition to the
upper support, terrain forcing and low level wind field convergence
will be best over the mountains Friday and Saturday afternoons, with
a secondary axis of low level convergence out over the piedmont in a
persistent surface trough. 850 to 500 mb lapse rates will also be
best over the mountains each afternoon, with values generally 6.5
deg C/km or better. Piedmont instability should feature sbCAPE
values of 2000 to 2500 J/kg Friday afternoon, and a bit higher on
Saturday afternoon. Shear profiles will remain weak through the
short-term period. This will make slow moving cells and associated
heavy rain an increasing threat as precipitable water values remain
1.6 to 1.9 inches around the region. This will also keep the
microburst threat elevated. Temperatures will remain one to two
categories above climo through the period, but with afternoon Heat
Index values probably no higher than the lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Wednesday: The diurnal convective loop is still on
through much of the weekend as deep southwesterly flow continues to
transport warm, moist air into the southeast CONUS. Numerous waves
will round the longwave trough digging into the eastern CONUS, and
upper divergence and support for large-scale lift will only increase
as heights fall across the area through early next week. Decent
instability will be present across the majority of the area each
afternoon over the weekend, so some pulse severe storms each day
cannot be ruled out. A surface cold front will approach the area
Monday and Tuesday, and shear profiles will become a little better
as far supporting possible organization of storms.

The other threat that will bear watching will be flash flood
potential with widespread convection expected each afternoon through
early next week. Specific areas are hard to nail down due to the
scattered nature of the convection, but precipitable water values
will be close to the 90th percentile or higher as compared to
climatology through the period. The main concern would be that areas
that get repeated convection over multiple days could be primed for
a quicker flash flooding response by early next week. Confidence in
any one area is low, but it will be a threat that needs to be
monitored each afternoon. There are some indications that steering
flow will improve through the period, which would be a very good
thing for areas that may become waterlogged through the next week.

The debate continues whether or not the frontal passage on Tuesday
will be clean or not, with multiple global models suggesting the
front could stall near coastal SC/NC and provide a focus for
continued diurnal convection, especially in the southern upstate SC
zones. Max and min temperatures will decrease slightly from current
levels over the weekend and early next week as heights fall across
the eastern CONUS, though they will remain near 5 degrees above
average.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Modest chances for TSRA exist at all the
terminals, warranting a TEMPO. Winds will be somewhat variable this
aftn but mainly NW in the mountains and WSW elsewhere. Once again
moderately dry and weakly sheared profiles will allow storms to
produce gusty outflows. Overnight the main impacts will be from
patches of fog and low stratus forming over soils saturated by
rainfall this aftn. With the support of vsby guidance, confidence
is good enough at KAVL/KHKY seeing rainfall that restrictions for
fog are included with this issuance, but at other sites confidence
is too low.

Outlook: Chances for shra/tsra remain elevated through the
weekend, possibly resulting in afternoon restrictions. Chances
for morning visibility restrictions increase as well, mainly in
the mountain valleys, but also possible outside of the mtns where
any precipitation has recently occurred.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  94%     High  94%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  94%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  97%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Carroll
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...Carroll
AVIATION...Wimberley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
458 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-150900-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
458 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop once
again across the area this afternoon into the evening. A few of the
storms should produce brief severe weather in the form of damaging
wind gusts and hail to the size of quarters. In addition, slow
movement of the storms could result in locally excessive rainfall and
flash flooding, especially in locations that received heavy rain on
Tuesday. Otherwise, dangerous cloud to ground lightning can occur
with any thunderstorm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
152 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

NCZ065-507-509-510-141815-
Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-Rutherford Mountains NC-
Eastern Polk NC-
152 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL RUTHERFORD...
NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON AND NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM
EDT...

At 152 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles north of Columbus, or near Chimney Rock State Park, moving
south at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Chimney Rock State Park, Bat Cave, Dana, Gerton, Edneyville, Lake
Adger and Mill Spring.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3546 8225 3549 8223 3549 8213 3546 8213
      3540 8219 3541 8217 3541 8216 3539 8213
      3530 8213 3530 8240 3549 8235 3550 8234
      3550 8232
TIME...MOT...LOC 1752Z 003DEG 9KT 3543 8225

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
155 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

NCZ063-064-141830-
Transylvania NC-Southern Jackson NC-
155 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN TRANSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

At 154 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles southwest of Brevard, or near Lake Toxaway, moving south at 10
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Lake Toxaway, Gorges State Park, Rosman, Wolf Mountain, Sapphire and
Balsam Grove.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3519 8310 3524 8289 3507 8278 3508 8279
      3509 8281 3501 8307
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 343DEG 10KT 3515 8297

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
200 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

SCZ002-003-141830-
Pickens Mountains SC-Greenville Mountains SC-
200 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE AND
NORTHWESTERN PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

At 159 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles north of Pickens, or near Table Rock State Park, moving south
at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Table Rock State Park, Caesars Head State Park, Jocassee Gorges,
Sassafras Mountain, Rocky Bottom, Pumpkintown and Sunset.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3509 8279 3508 8278 3507 8278 3507 8275
      3508 8275 3508 8274 3509 8273 3510 8270
      3513 8268 3512 8266 3513 8264 3513 8263
      3502 8258 3498 8284 3507 8285
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 354DEG 10KT 3506 8274

HG