High Wind Watch 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

560 
WWUS72 KGSP 051931
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
331 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

.A strong cold front will sweep across the area by early tomorrow
morning. Very strong west to northwest winds will develop behind 
the front. Wind gusts of 45 to 60 mph will be possible, especially
for counties along the Blue Ridge Escarpment. The most likely 
period for these strong wind gusts will be Thursday afternoon and 
especially Thursday evening and through early Friday. At least 
isolated downed trees and power outages can be expected.

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-064-065-501-503-505-507-509-SCZ002-003-
060400-
/O.UPG.KGSP.HW.A.0002.170406T1600Z-170408T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.HW.W.0002.170406T1200Z-170408T0000Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-Buncombe-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, 
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, 
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, 
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, 
Cove Creek, Asheville, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, 
Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, 
Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Saluda, Pumpkintown, 
Tigerville, Gowensville, and Cleveland
331 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued
a High Wind Warning, which is in effect from 8 AM Thursday to
8 PM EDT Friday. The High Wind Watch is no longer in effect.

* LOCATIONS...The North Carolina mountain counties north and 
  east of the Balsams, and much of the South Carolina mountains.

* HAZARDS...Strong and occasionally damaging wind gusts.

* TIMING...Strong wind gusts are expected to develop Thursday
  morning, increasing throughout the afternoon and reaching a peak
  during Thursday night.

* WINDS...Northwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

Please report damaging winds by calling the National Weather
Service toll free at...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. Leave a message
with your observation and the specific location where it
occurred. You can also post your report to National Weather
Service Greenville Spartanburg Facebook or tweet your report
using hashtag nwsgsp.

&&

$$

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-051-056>059-062-063-068>072-
082-502-504-506-508-510-SCZ001-004>014-019-060400-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0007.170406T1200Z-170408T0000Z/
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Swain-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, 
Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Boydville, Toccoa, 
Royston, Lavonia, Franklin Springs, Canon, Hartwell, Nuberg, 
Reed Creek, Elberton, Fortsonia, Middleton, Ruckersville, 
Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, 
Stony Point, Statesville, Mooresville, Farmington, Fork Church, 
Mocksville, Advance, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, 
Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Salisbury, Robbinsville, Stecoah, 
Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, 
Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Shelby, Kings Mountain, 
Lincolnton, Crouse, Gastonia, Charlotte, Concord, Kannapolis, 
Monroe, Trinity, Indian Trail, Weddington, Kings Creek, Lenoir, 
Sawmills, Granite Falls, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, 
Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Forest City, 
Rutherfordton, Spindale, Tryon, Columbus, Mill Spring, 
Mountain Rest, Walhalla, Westminster, Seneca, Oakway, Easley, 
Dacusville, Clemson, Greenville, Taylors, Greer, Mauldin, 
Fork Shoals, Simpsonville, Berea, Spartanburg, Gaffney, Catawba, 
Rock Hill, Anderson, Abbeville, Calhoun Falls, Laurens, Clinton, 
Union, Monarch Mills, Chester, Cornwell, Great Falls, 
Ware Shoals, and Ninety Six
331 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued
a Wind Advisory, which is in effect from 8 AM Thursday to 8 PM
EDT Friday.

* LOCATIONS...The Piedmont and lower foothills of the western
  Carolinas and northeast Georgia, plus the Smoky Mountains of 
  North Carolina.

* HAZARDS...Strong wind gusts.

* TIMING...Winds and gusts will be strongest during the day Thursday.
  While they will become less gusty for a time Thursday night, on
  Friday the gusts will strengthen again.

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 mph with occasional gusts up to 45 mph.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$
Wimberley

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1033 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will cross our area through tonight.  A strong cold
front approaches on Wednesday preceded by another round of showers
and thunderstorms with some of the storms being severe with large
hail and wind damage. Expect much below normal temperatures at the
end of the week with snow showers in the North Carolina mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1020 PM EDT Tuesday: skies remain mostly clear with only some
widely sct cirrus lingering across the region. Sfc winds have been
weakening over the past few hours and remain mostly out of the SW
with some sites already reporting calm conditions. Most locations
will likely go clam to light and vrb during the overnight and early
morning. Temps should bottom out a few degrees cooler than last night,
but not by much with the light SLY flow.

Otherwise, another impressive upper lvl trof will approach the fcst
area later tomorrow with the trof axis taking on a distinct negative
tilt as it moves across the CWFA early Thursday. At the sfc, the
associated low pressure system will move a warm front across the CWFA
during the mid to late morning with deep lyr moisture and sky cover
increasing as it does. The actual cold front is not expected to reach
the fcst area until Wednesday night and then move across the area
in the 03 to 09z Thurs timeframe. The potential for another round of
widespread svr weather remains high with this system. The dynamical
support/synoptic scale forcing associated with the upper trof is
tremendous as is the expected deep-lyr shear. The main sticking point
remains the distribution of low-lvl instability across the CWFA.
The highest amounts are expected over the southern and southwestern
zones, with less likely to develop to the NE. In addition, the main
FROPA is not expected until later Wed night into early Thurs. This
of course, may limit instability across the region considerably when
the main front moves through. At any rate, the public should be
aware that widespread strong to svr thunderstorms will likely develop
across the area before this system is done. The most likely threats
include damaging straight line winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday: A very active short range period is
upcoming - with an ongoing severe weather outbreak quite possible
Wednesday night, strong gradient wind conditions developing Thursday
into Friday, and a period of uplsope snow in the western mountains
Thursday through Friday.

The closed low upper center over the Midwest on Wednesday evening
will be in the process of rapidly acquiring a negative tilt and
sending strong upper support to the southern Appalachians and points
east for the nighttime hours Wednesday night. Upper level divergence
should peak during the evening hours, but strong DPVA will race
eastward overnight to enhance lift along the passing cold front. The
southerly low level jet should reach 50 kt or better in most areas
ahead of the cold front Wednesday night. With southerly flow
battering away at the retreating in situ stable layer, the current
feeling is that enhanced sbCAPE should reach at least 1000 J/kg just
ahead of fropa throughout the area, and especially across the
southeast half. Surface to 3 km bulk shear should reach 50 kt, with
60 to 70 kt through the lowest 6 km layer. The squall line ahead of
the strong cold front should cross the region fairly quickly from
03Z west to 09Z east to end the threat by the early morning hours
Thursday. Will feature the HWO mention of wind, hail, and tornadoes,
and also post a severe safety rules PNS. QPF will be heavy for
training thunderstorms, but the wettest Blue Ridge escarpment areas
may not receive the heaviest rainfall in this event. Isolated flash
flooding is definitely possible, but it will be very hard to pin
down a flash flood watch area.

The closed upper system will pivot eastward through Thursday and
carve out a broad prominent trough over the entire eastern U.S. Deep
moisture will wrap back into the picture from the west around the
cyclone Thursday. Subfreezing 850 mb temps will also crash into the
western mountains Thursday morning. The best combination of cold
temperatures, deep moisture, and upslope flow will occur Thursday
afternoon through Friday morning - with upslope moisture slowly
diminishing through late Friday. Higher terrain and western mountain
snow accumulations could reach 4 inches or more.

Strong gradient winds will be the other concern, especially during
the deeper mixing periods Thursday afternoon. High wind conditions
are likely across all the higher terrain from Thursday through
Thursday night, and quite possible out across foothill and piedmont
sections Thursday afternoon and evening with mixing. Wind gusts
could worsen east of the mountains if any passing showers manage to
break containment in the mountains and aid evaporatively cooled
downdrafts into the drier boundary layer east of the mountains.

All told, no wind wind headlines will be posted yet, but are quite
likely for Thursday into Friday at some point. A flash flood watch
will not be posted but isolated flash flooding will be possible in
any thunderstorm training locations. And, a Snow Advisory will
likely be needed at some point for higher elevation accumulations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 205 PM Tuesday, after the rough week we will have had, the
weekend and the early part of next week should feature a period of
relatively fair weather that will bring a welcome relief. Some
elevation-dependent snow/rain showers will persist through Friday
night and into Saturday morning near the TN border as the NW flow of
moisture slowly diminishes. After sunrise on Saturday, a slowly-
evolving upper pattern will keep a broad upper ridge to our west
through Sunday night that supports dry high pressure moving over the
Southeast. Temperatures will start out below normal, but should
moderate through early next week. The upper ridge axis will cross
overhead on Monday which will bring a SW flow aloft for Monday night
and Tuesday, but moisture will be slow to return and the next cold
front remains to our west through the end of the period. Prefer to
keep Tuesday dry as a result. Temps will be back above normal with
warm advection and the cold front to our west.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: VFR conditions should prevail thru tomorrow
morning with MVFR and then IFR conditions expected during the
afternoon and evening as another round of showers and thunderstorms
moves thru the area. Some of the convection could become severe
later in the afternoon and into the evening depending on how much
sfc heating we get, and thus the amount of instability present.
Winds will become light and variable overnight and then SELY to SLY
during the day tomorrow. Speeds will increase during the afternoon
as the low-lvl jet ramps up across the region and persists thru the
end of the taf period.

Outlook: Thunderstorm activity is likely to persist over the area
thru early Thursday with additional restrictions likely. Widespread
strong gradient winds are expected on Thursday behind the front.
Amidst this cold advective flow, frost conditions are possible Fri
and Sat.

Confidence Table...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  86%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  86%
KAVL       High 100%     High  87%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  86%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     Med   66%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  94%     High  81%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JPT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
431 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2017

NCZ033-048>052-058-052045-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
431 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Tennessee border counties
of the western North Carolina mountains.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...Severe weather possible. A strong cold front will
approach western North Carolina late Wednesday. Scattered to
numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the
front Wednesday afternoon and evening. Conditions will be favorable
for severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large
hail, and even isolated tornadoes. Localized flash flooding will
also be possible.
..Thursday...High winds and winter weather possible. In the wake of
the cold front, strong west to northwest winds will bring much
colder air to the mountains. Winds may become strong enough from
Thursday into Thursday night to blow down trees and power lines.
Meanwhile, snow showers are expected across the high elevations
Thursday and Thursday night. At least light accumulations of snow
will be possible, mainly at elevations above 3500 feet near the
Tennessee border.
..Friday...Winter weather possible. Snow showers are expected to
gradually taper off across the high elevations late in the week.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large
hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office on
Wednesday.

NCZ035>037-053-056-057-059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008-009-
014-052045-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Northern Jackson-
Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Caldwell Mountains-
Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-Chester-
431 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina and
the eastern Upstate of South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...Severe weather possible. A strong cold front will
approach the region from the west late Wednesday. Scattered to
numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the
front. Conditions are expected to be favorable for severe
thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and
isolated tornadoes. Localized flash flooding will also be possible.
..Thursday...High winds possible. In the wake of the cold front,
strong west to northwest winds will develop across the area. Winds
may become strong enough from Thursday into Thursday night to cause
at least isolated downed trees and power lines.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large
hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office on
Wednesday.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001>007-010>013-019-052045-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Union-Greenwood-
431 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and upstate
South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...Severe weather possible. A strong cold front will
approach the region from the west late Wednesday. Numerous
thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front.
Conditions will be favorable for severe thunderstorms capable of
producing damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. Strong
and long-track tornadoes are possible. Localized flash flooding will
also be possible.
..Thursday...High winds possible. In the wake of the cold front,
strong west to northwest winds will develop across the area. Winds
may become strong enough from Thursday into Thursday night to cause
at least isolated downed trees and power lines.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large
hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office on
Wednesday.

HG