High Wind Watch 1, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

854 
WWUS72 KGSP 120851
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
351 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2017

...VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...

.Strong northwest winds will develop behind a cold front across
the North Carolina mountains by the end of the day today. The 
winds will strengthen overnight and start to weaken Monday morning,
as low pressure intensifies off the New England coast. Pockets of
damaging winds are expected, especially along and just below the 
eastern escarpment of the Blue Ridge, and across portions of the 
upper French Broad Valley.

NCZ033-049-050-053-065-501-503-505-507-509-121700-
/O.UPG.KGSP.HW.A.0001.170212T2100Z-170213T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.HW.W.0001.170212T2100Z-170213T1800Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-
Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Asheville, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, 
East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, 
Old Fort, and Saluda
351 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM
EST MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued
a High Wind Warning...which is in effect from 4 PM this afternoon
to 1 PM EST Monday. The High Wind Watch is no longer in effect.

* LOCATIONS...Locations along and just beneath the eastern Blue 
  Ridge escarpment, the upper French Broad Valley.

* HAZARDS...Strong to damaging winds.

* TIMING...Winds will turn from the northwest by around sunset
  early this evening. Winds will gradually strengthen throughout
  Sunday night, likely peaking between midnight and sunrise Monday
  morning. 

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. Gusts 
  of 70 mph or more will be likely on high peaks and ridge tops.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs...trees...and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

Please report damaging winds by calling the National Weather
Service toll free at...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. Leave a message
with your observation and the specific location where it
occurred. You can also post your report to National Weather
Service Greenville Spartanburg Facebook or tweet your report
using hashtag nwsgsp.

&&

$$

NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062>064-121700-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.170212T2100Z-170213T1800Z/
Madison-Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Including the cities of Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, 
Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, 
Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, 
Cove Creek, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, 
Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, 
Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, and Little River
351 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued
a Wind Advisory...which is in effect from 4 PM this afternoon to
1 PM EST Monday.

* LOCATIONS...The North Carolina mountains along and west of the
  French Broad River Valley.

* HAZARDS...Strong winds gusts.

* TIMING...Winds will turn from the northwest by around sunset
  early this evening. Winds will gradually strengthen throughout
  Sunday night, likely peaking between midnight and sunrise Monday
  morning.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* IMPACTS...A few trees and tree limbs may be blown down. Isolated
  power outages are also possible. Travel may be difficult for
  high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

GAZ010-NCZ035-502-504-506-508-510-SCZ001>003-121700-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.170212T2100Z-170213T1800Z/
Rabun-Alexander-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, 
Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, 
Stony Point, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, 
Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, 
Fero, Glenwood, Forest City, Rutherfordton, Spindale, Tryon, 
Columbus, Mill Spring, Mountain Rest, Walhalla, Pumpkintown, 
Tigerville, Gowensville, and Cleveland
351 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued
a Wind Advisory...which is in effect from 4 PM this afternoon to
1 PM EST Monday.

* LOCATIONS...Foothills and eastern Escarpment of northeast
  Georgia and the Carolinas.

* HAZARDS...Strong winds gusts.

* TIMING...Winds will turn from the northwest by around sunset
  early this evening. Winds will gradually strengthen throughout
  Sunday night, likely peaking between midnight and sunrise Monday
  morning.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...A few trees and tree limbs may be blown down. Isolated
  power outages are also possible. Travel may be difficult for
  high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

ARK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
222 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Western Atlantic high pressure combined with flat ridging aloft will
work to keep conditions mostly dry and unseasonably warm through the
remainder of the weekend.  A mostly dry cold front will pass through
the region Sunday night leading to much cooler and drier conditions
into midweek.  Another frontal system looks to move into the area
late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 2pm Saturday:  Upper pattern transitions from broad zonal to
an upper trough digging into the northeast CONUS over the next 24
hours.  Surface trough anchored east of the Appalachians is greatly
strengthened as upper trough forms Sunday afternoon, leading to an
increase in winds at higher elevations.  Surface flow will be
southerly veering to southwesterly Sunday afternoon, and will serve
to increase BL moisture, with dewpoints rising from the low 40s now
to upper 50s Sunday afternoon.  There is not a lot of upper dynamics
to support significant precipitation, but upslope flow from the west
into the mountains along the TN/NC line may give some scattered
light showers today and tonight; and increasing moisture creates a
better opportunity on Sunday for some light showers from the
mountains into Piedmont areas.

Sunday evening, the surface trough/front begins to move eastward,
and winds turn to northerly behind the front, with continued
upslope generated showers along the TN/NC line.  Models have a
slight amount of CAPE Sunday afternoon, but capping is quite strong
and deep convection would seem unlikely.

Temperatures today and Sunday are 10 to 15 degrees above normal,
being supported by mild synoptic pattern with warm low-level
advection.  Sundays low temps in Piedmont areas may approach Record
warm lows, which are in the upper 50s

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday, a deep and strong NW flow/cold advection
regime will develop early in the period, as an intense short wave
trough digs off the Northeast Coast, forcing bombogenesis off the
New England coast. This is typically a pattern that favors high
terrain and downslope/mountain wave high wind events across the
southern Appalachians and foothills. Indeed, numerical guidance
depicts H8 winds accelerating to 50 to 60 kts Sunday night from the
Blue Ridge east. The surface gradient is not quite as strong as we
typically see during damaging wind events, but the very strong H8
winds and strong mountain wave signal depicted in model cross-
sections cannot be ignored. These types of nocturnal mountain wave
events are typically confined to a fairly narrow corridor from the
top of the Blue Ridge to the base of the escarpment, with
channeling into the upper French Broad Valley being a secondary
area of concern. A High Wind Watch will thus be issued for the
northern NC mtns, Henderson/Buncombe Counties, and the high
elevations of the NC foothill counties, which are typically ground 0
for these events. Winds should remain strong through Monday morning
before diminishing during the afternoon.

Otherwise, the short term will be dry, except for a small chance of
lingering NW flow showers at the beginning of the period, which
could briefly change over to snow in the high elevations before the
moisture scours. Temps through the period will be considerably
cooler than this weekend's readings, but temps should still be a
good 5-10 degrees above climo through much of the period, the only
exception being Mon night/Tue morning, when good radiational cooling
conditions should allow min temps to settle close to normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Saturday: A closed upper low will move southeast
across the Great Lakes and settle over New England on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, a southern stream closed low pressure system will migrate
east of the lower Mississippi River Valley, open up, and gradually
get absorbed into the deepening eastern trough. Moisture
accompanying the reinforcing cold front from the northern system,
and from the phasing southern system, could merge over our forecast
area briefly on Wednesday before the better precipitation axis moves
offshore Wednesday night. This may lead to a brief overlap of
northern tier cold profiles and moisture. The primary model
discrepancy centers around the location of the southern system
surface low center track. The GFS keeps the low center over the
northern Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday before it moves off the
southeast coast Wednesday night. This results in a colder and drier
GFS solution for Wednesday. The ECMWF tracks the low from central LA
to the GA coast and yields a warmer and wetter solution, while the
Canadian is a compromise. Will feature a consensus blend favoring
the ECMWF consistency which confines any chance snow shower mention
to mainly the higher terrain of the mountains.

Expect dry conditions under northwest flow for Thursday and Friday.
Another southern tier low pressure system developing over TX should
amplify the downstream ridge over the southern Appalachian
region to keep conditions dry and warm through early next
weekend. Temperatures should run about 10 degrees above climo
next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere:  Areas west of KGSP and KCLT have a large
area of BKN to OVC stratus down to FL050.  This has made little
eastward progress this afternoon, but model soundings show
increasing low clouds all areas this afternoon through Sunday
morning.  Southerly to southwesterly flow will increase surface
moisture, leading to lowered CIGs Sunday morning down to 1000 feet,
with some improvement with diurnal warming after sunrise Sunday.
Current southwesterly wind gusts to 25kts will relax some later this
afternoon, but will pick-up from the northwest Sunday afternoon as a
cold front moves eastward off of the mountains and 850mb flow
improves to 40kts.

Outlook: Restrictions in low cigs and some precip possible on
Sunday. Gusty NW winds expected behind a front crossing the
mountains late Sunday afternoon thru Monday morning. Dry NW flow and
downsloping should clear out the low clouds by Sunday night or early
Monday morning, with VFR conditions expected thru midweek.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High  95%     High  84%     High  84%
KGSP       High  83%     Med   72%     High  82%     High  84%
KAVL       High 100%     Med   71%     Med   61%     High  84%
KHKY       High 100%     High  80%     Low   52%     Med   73%
KGMU       Med   74%     Med   76%     High  85%     Med   77%
KAND       Med   66%     Med   77%     High  83%     High  87%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 02-11

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      74 1932     21 1895     50 1999      7 1955
                                        1965        1936
                                        1922
   KCLT      75 1965     23 1899     57 1932     12 1885
                1932                    1922
   KGSP      75 1965     30 1934     58 1922     11 1899

RECORDS FOR 02-12

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      73 1922     13 1895     49 1932      6 1981
                                        1880        1955
   KCLT      73 1999     14 1899     57 1932     11 1899
   KGSP      75 1987     27 1899     57 1932     13 1981
                1961                    1922        1968
                                                    1955

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon
     for NCZ033-049-050-053-065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...WJM
CLIMATE...GSP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
430 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2017

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-120930-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
430 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

..Sunday...High winds possible. Strong and gusty northwest winds
will develop across the North Carolina mountains on Sunday afternoon
behind a departing cold front. Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible during the afternoon and Sunday night.
..Monday...High winds possible. Strong wind gusts will taper off
through the day on Monday.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-120930-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
430 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.