Frost Advisory 9, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

147 
WWUS72 KGSP 310614
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
214 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017

...PATHY FROST IN ROWAN AND DAVIE COUNTIES THIS MORNING...

.Dry air, clear skies, and light winds will allow surface
temperatures to cool enough to allow frost to form in some areas.

NCZ037-057-311300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0009.171031T0700Z-171031T1300Z/
Davie-Rowan-
Including the cities of Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, 
Advance, and Salisbury
214 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...Areas in Rowan and Davie Counties.

* TEMPERATURES...Lows in the upper 30s. 

* WINDS...West 5 mph or less.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions may damage sensitive 
  vegetation. Take steps now to protect tender plants from the 
  cold. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected.
Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

&&

$$

444 
WWUS72 KGSP 310623 CCA
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
223 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017

...AREAS OF FROST IN ROWAN AND DAVIE COUNTIES THIS MORNING...

.Dry air, clear skies, and light winds will allow surface
temperatures to cool enough to allow areas of frost to form.

NCZ037-057-311300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0009.171031T0700Z-171031T1300Z/
Davie-Rowan-
Including the cities of Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, 
Advance, and Salisbury
223 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...Areas in Rowan and Davie Counties.

* TEMPERATURES...Lows in the upper 30s. 

* WINDS...West 5 mph or less.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions may damage sensitive 
  vegetation. Take steps now to protect tender plants from the 
  cold. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected.
Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
241 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak and dry high pressure will build over the region through
Tuesday. A moderating and marginally moist southerly flow will
then settle over the region by midweek. Another cold front may
cross the area next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 2pm EDT Monday:  Conditions through Tuesday should remain fair
as next upstream synoptic system reaches only as far as AR/MO
Tuesday evening. In post-frontal regime, soundings are very dry up
to the tropopause and skies are clear.  Temperatures are warming
following this mornings cool/cold temperatures to highs that will be
5 to 10 degrees below normal.  An upper 500mb wave passes through
the northeast CONUS on Tuesday, and will drag a trailing cold front
across the area Tuesday morning.  Airmass will be very dry and most
dynamical lift passes well to the north, and this FROPA will be weak
and have little impact beyond a wind shift from southwesterly to
northwesterly.  Tuesday will see continued fair weather with clear
skies and temperatures warming 5 to 10 degrees above Monday for
highs and lows.  Lows Tuesday morning will reach the mid 30s or
lower in western North Carolina.  With clear skies, dry air, and
calm winds overnight, there is a good chance for skin temperatures
to reach freezing and to generate some frost.  As Rowan and Davie
counties have not yet experienced a freeze this year, a frost
advisory will be issued for them.  As temperatures warm later in the
forecast, this should be the only cold product needed for awhile.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 2:30 PM Monday: A weak cold front will continue to drop
towards the southeast Tuesday night, per latest guidance, but is
progged to stall and decay just northwest of the forecast area.
The remainder of the period will be dominated by a broad, weak
upper trough, as the flow pattern becomes nearly zonal into
Thursday. Though a fairly dry airmass will be in place to begin
the period, a shift to southerly flow at the lower levels will
advect moisture into the area, as seen from an increase in PWATs
from just over one half of an inch to just over an inch. Thus,
have kept potential for rain showers across portions of the area
Wednesday evening into Thursday. Given the gradual warming
trend to near-normal temperatures through midweek, do not
anticipate any wintry precipitation during this forecast period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 pm Monday: Forecast confidence a bit below average out in
the medium range, mostly because we are expecting the passage of
weakly forced systems without much moisture. Fortunately, without
any strongly forced systems to latch onto, it also means the medium
range is relatively low-impact. Still expecting a lull Thursday
night and Friday morning with weak high pressure overhead and an
upper wave lifting out of the Srn Plains. The latest model guidance
has trended more toward moving a sfc front along a boundary strung
out across the OH Valley Friday night and Saturday, and away from
a pure cold air damming wedge scenario. The short wave dampens and
the sfc reflection is nearly lost as it attempts to cut through the
wedge to our N on Saturday night and Sunday, but the whole while
the sfc pressure pattern remains wedge-like across the western
Carolinas. Chances of precip still look modest (that is to say,
in the chance range) and cloud cover does not look extensive at
this time (but the fcst has more cloud cover than guidance). One
can easily imagine a scenario where both of these low confidence
elements are greater, which is to say more precip and clouds, in
which case the temps would be on the order of ten degrees cooler
than fcst. For now, the fcst remains non-committal and closer to
normal temps. Expect some movement on this as we get closer. We
end on a dry note, as a chunk of the sfc high should break off
across the Carolinas on Monday allowing us to dry out.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere:  good VFR conditions will prevail for the
next 24 hours with nearly clear skies and modest to variable winds.
5 to 10 kts of southwesterly winds this afternoon become more
northwesterly to variable and lighter following passage of a weak
front early Tuesday morning.  Very dry air up to FL500 will lead to
nearly clear skies.

Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conds expected through mid-week. A
front approaches the area on Wednesday, with increasing chances of
precipitation and possible restrictions.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...WJM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1040 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-311445-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
1040 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.