Frost Advisory 8, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

908 
WWUS72 KGSP 270254
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1054 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017

...FROST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT...

.Cold air will remain in place across the area tonight, leading
to potential frost development across portions of the western
North Carolina Piedmont and adjacent foothills.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>070-072-501>510-271100-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0008.171027T0700Z-171027T1300Z/
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Cabarrus-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-
Eastern Polk-
Including the cities of Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, 
Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Statesville, Mooresville, 
Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, Hickory, Newton, 
St. Stephens, Salisbury, Shelby, Kings Mountain, Lincolnton, 
Crouse, Gastonia, Concord, Kannapolis, Patterson, Kings Creek, 
Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge, Morganton, 
Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort,
Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Forest City, 
Rutherfordton, Spindale, Saluda, Tryon, Columbus, and Mill Spring
1054 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Portions of the western North Carolina Piedmont 
  and adjacent foothills.

* TEMPERATURES...Lows in the mid to upper 30s.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions may damage sensitive 
  vegetation. Take steps now to protect tender plants from the 
  cold.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected.
Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

&&

$$

PM

858 
WWUS72 KGSP 270726
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
326 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...FROST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS MORNING...

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>070-072-501>510-271300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-171027T1300Z/
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Cabarrus-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-
Eastern Polk-
Including the cities of Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, 
Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Statesville, Mooresville, 
Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, Hickory, Newton, 
St. Stephens, Salisbury, Shelby, Kings Mountain, Lincolnton, 
Crouse, Gastonia, Concord, Kannapolis, Patterson, Kings Creek, 
Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge, Morganton, 
Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort,
Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Forest City, 
Rutherfordton, Spindale, Saluda, Tryon, Columbus, and Mill Spring
326 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...Portions of the western North Carolina Piedmont 
  and adjacent foothills.

* TEMPERATURES...Lows in the mid to upper 30s. Some rural,
  sheltered locations may reach the lower 30s. 
  

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions may damage sensitive 
  vegetation. Take steps now to protect tender plants from the 
  cold.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected.
Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

&&

$$
Lane

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
133 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Gradual warming is expected through the remainder of the work week
as dry high pressure prevails ahead of another cold front moving
into the region on Saturday.  Chances for precipitation associated
with this front will increase significantly Saturday and Saturday
night.  Another round of dry/cool conditions will dominate behind
the front to start the new work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1100 AM EDT Thursday: Temperatures look good for the late
morning update. Did adjust winds down a tad and reduced sky cover
(as in, there is none out there), but overall trends fairly
unchanged.

The passing upper trough will move off the east coast this morning
and a period of northwesterly flow will set up behind the trough
axis along with deep layer drying. Any lingering low level moisture
impinging on the southern Appalachians in this flow regime early
this morning will be quite shallow and diminish quickly, with mostly
sunny conditions developing throughout. Max temps will rebound at
least a category east of the mountains, and perhaps some 8 to 10
degrees in the high mountain locations.

The upper pattern will flatten out tonight as another trough begins
to carve out from the upper midwest to the southern plains. Good
radiating conditions will be present tonight, but the low level
airmass will also warm slightly. It's possible that the NC mountain
frost/freeze program will be shut down for the season later this
morning once the morning observations are in, and temperatures in
other locations look a category warmer, so no new frost/freeze
hazards will be issued pending this later morning analysis of
observed temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday:  The short range fcst period kicks off on
Friday morning amidst an amplified upper pattern highlighted by
ridging along the east coast and deep full latitude troffing
westward across the plains.  At the surface, high pressure will be
centered over the Outer Banks of NC while a cold front moves into
the MS River valley setting up a zone of baroclynicity across the
deep south.  Pattern evolution through the period will feature
erosion of the surface high mentioned above as the cold front
approaches from west.  Across northeast GA and the western
Carolinas, weak waa will be in play as flow veers sly while the
front looks to slowly track through the TN valley into western NC by
late Saturday morning.  As stated above, dewpoints attempt to
recover ahead of the front across the NC fthills/piedmont and the SC
Upstate into the afternoon hours, however soundings look rather
moist through the profile and thus exhibit poor lapse rates, albeit
with modest shear given the dynamics at play.  That said, still
think chances for severe convection are low at this point, with
perhaps a strong storm not to be ruled out with heavy rainfall and
gusty winds being the primary concerns.  The front looks to move
across the piedmont and into central NC around the end of the
period, with abundant caa underway among developing nwf across the
western tier of the cwfa, possibly supporting a few high elevation
snow showers.

As for the fcst, dry through the day/evening on Friday before pops
gradually ramp up from the west into Saturday morning with likely
levels favored along the TN line by sunrise.  From that point pops
increase further regionwide topping out at categorical levels
Saturday night, then tapering gradually through the overnight.
Temperatures through the period will remain at or just above normal
levels given waa ahead of the front, with cooling trends to commence
near periods end.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Thursday: The medium range fcst period initializes
on Sunday morning as a cold front exits the region to the east and
cold/dry nwf settles across northeast GA and the western Carolinas
beneath a deep upper trof.  Guidance continues to hint at a brief
shot of nwfs along the TN line given sufficient remnant moisture in
place as low/mid lvl thicknesses will be supportive, with little/no
accum expected.  Therefore minimal slight/chance pops will remain in
the fcst through the day while the remainder of the fcst area is
dry.  Said pops are allowed to fall off into Monday morning as
moisture subsides.  Quasizonal flow aloft looks to move across the
region to start the new work week as high pressure sets up across
north FL Monday into Tuesday keeping conditions over the cwfa dry.
Upper heights fall somewhat on Tuesday as troffing digs to the west
setting up swly flow and thus a gradual warming trend ahead of
another cold front that makes a run into the TN valley on Wednesday.
 Some uncertainty remains regarding this long range front as it
could stall just north of the fcst area thus pops will be kept
somewhat conservative to round out the period.  As for temperatures,
expecting below normal levels Sunday/Monday with slight warming to
near normal for Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR through the period, but with the
possibility of increasing high clouds at the very end of the period;
did not include at this time but will have to start trending that
way as moisture increases from the west ahead of the next system.
Light WSW winds will back slightly toward SW through the period, but
lgt/vrb overnight with high pressure overhead.

Outlook: Deep moisture will return ahead of another cold front
during the weekend. Conditions dry out again early next week.

Confidence Table...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...HG/TDP
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...TDP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
912 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-271315-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
912 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1008 AM EDT THU OCT 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     FLOOD            1 E OLD FORT            35.63N 82.17W
10/23/2017                   MCDOWELL           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            OAKDALE RD AND PARKER PADGETT RD FLOODED FROM THE CATAWBA
            RIVER OVERFLOWING ITS BANKS

&&

JMP