Frost Advisory 1, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
638 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool, dry high pressure will remain in control of the area before a
warming trend commences ahead of a cold front early next week. The
front will bring rain chances back into the forecast on Tuesday
before a dry high moves back into the region to end the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM EST: Current fcst still looks like it is in decent
shape. Most of the outlying areas east of the mtns, away from the
large population centers and large lakes, are below freezing. No
changes.

A slowly progressive upper pattern, featuring a ridge approaching
from the west, will continue to support a large surface high to our
north. The high will keep our weather fair and cool through the next
24 hours. A passing short wave may bring some mid-level clouds
across the northern half of the fcst area during the day, otherwise
sky will be mostly clear and wind should be light. As a result,
expect another seasonally cool night tonight, with temps dropping
down to at or below freezing across parts of the Upstate and the
Foothills/Wrn Piedmont of NC. Will keep the Freeze Watch intact with
this issuance and will plan to upgrade to a Freeze Warning for
tonight across much of that area once the ongoing Freeze Warning
runs out later this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EST Saturday: the short term fcst picks up at 12z on
Sunday with broad upper trofing moving off the New England Coast
and upper ridging slowly building over the Eastern CONUS. The ridge
axis is expected to be centered over our area by Monday afternoon
and should be over the East Coast by the end of the period 12z Tues.
As the ridge axis drifts farther east, another broad upper trof
will dig down across the Northern Plains and approach the Great
Lakes. The trof is not expected to approach our area until later
in the medium range.

At the sfc, broad high pressure will be centered over New England
to start the period. This will cause low-lvl winds to veer around
to southerly allowing temps to begin warming. By early Monday, a
broad plume of deep lyr moisture will begin to move into the CWFA
from the west as the high begins to drift offshore. By early Tuesday,
another significant cold front will approach the Western Carolinas
from the NW, however the system is not expected to reach the CWFA
by the end of the period. As for the sensible fcst, the period should
be mostly dry with dewpts rebounding on Monday. Could cover will
steadily increase across the CWFA from late Sunday onward. POPs
also increase from just a slight chance on Monday to a high-end
solid chance by the end of the period at 12z Tuesday. Temps will
be above normal thru the period with isolated patchy frost still
possible Monday morning over portions of the NC Foothills and Northern
Piedmont as temps drop into the mid 30s and winds remain light.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM EST Saturday: Guidance has come into generally better
agreement on most features in the medium range. The extended period
starts Tuesday morning with an upper level trough approaching the
eastern CONUS and a surface high off the east coast. Global models
are showing far better consistency in the earlier timing of the
surface low deepenging over Ontario and the associated frontal
system sweeping acorss the central and eastern CONUS. Plentiful
moisture will be in place over the southeast Tuesday morning and pre-
frontal precipitation will be beginning across most of the area as a
well-defined cold front approaches the Appalachians. Despite the
strength of the front and decent upper level support, thunder is not
advertised in the public forecast considering instability (surface-
based or elevated) is practically nonexistent during the Tuesday-
Wednesday time frame. QPF will be generally light (one inch or less)
and beneficial for most of the area.

After the front passes Wednesday morning, rapid clearing will take
place during the day on Wednesday. Heights will rise relatively
quickly after the frontal passage as a dry surface high moves into
the southeast, keeping maximum temperatures well above average and
only dropping overnight lows to a few degrees above average. Dry
conditions will then persist through the balance of the work week as
the flow flattens aloft. The combined influence of a clipper and
another surface low spinning up via lee-side cyclogenesis may begin
to increase rain chances next weekend, though there remains
substantial uncertainty regarding the evolution of these features.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR through the period as dry high pressure
remains in control. Wind should be light from the N/NE or calm to
begin with, but wind comes up, expect a progression from ENE by mid
morning to ESE in mid/late morning, to SW in the afternoon as the
high pressure center moves east. Could see an increase in midlevel
clouds across the northern tier as a weak system passes to our north
today, but it does not look like we will have enuf cloudiness to
constitute a ceiling. Wind should go light/variable or calm again
with sunset.

Outlook: VFR. Drier conditions will continue into early next week.

Confidence Table...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Although a Fire Danger Statement was not needed, increased fire danger
will persist across the fcst area today and tonight especially for the
non-mountain zones. Fuel moisture and RH values remain low, however winds
are expected to be weaker compared to the past few days. RH values will
likely increase a bit for Sunday with considerable increases expected for
Monday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
     GAZ018-026-028-029.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ018-026-028-
     029.
NC...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
     NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ035>037-056-
     057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
     SCZ004>014-019.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ004>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...JPT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
602 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-051115-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-
Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-
602 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Freeze Warning.
   Freeze Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

..Sunday...Frost/freeze possible. A Freeze Watch is in effect for
late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-051115-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
602 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-SCZ001>003-051115-
Rabun-Habersham-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-
602 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and upstate
South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Increased wildfire danger. Low relative humidity values and dry
fuels will result in increased fire danger.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ018-026-028-029-SCZ004>014-019-051115-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Union-Chester-Greenwood-
602 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and upstate
South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Increased wildfire danger. Low relative humidity values and dry
fuels will result in increased fire danger. In addition, please
listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet
for more information about the following hazards.

   Freeze Warning.
   Freeze Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

..Sunday...Frost/freeze possible. A Freeze Watch is now in effect
for late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

JPT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
821 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-050000-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City,
Cornelia, Baldwin, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Boydville,
Toccoa, Royston, Whitworth, Lavonia, Franklin Springs, Canon,
Hartwell, Nuberg, Reed Creek, Elberton, Fortsonia, Middleton,
and Ruckersville
821 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

Dry high pressure has settled over Northeast Georgia today.
Relative humidity values will drop to 25 percent or less for at
least four hours while winds remain light out of the southwest
during the afternoon. The low humidity will combine with dry
fuels to produce an increased risk of fire danger this afternoon
and continue into the early evening.

Please refer to your local burn permitting authorities on whether
you can burn today. If you do burn...use extreme caution since
fires can quickly get out of hand under these conditions.

ARK