Freeze Warning 6, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Elbert County, GA, Franklin County, GA, Hart County, GA, Stephens County, GA, Alexander County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Union County, NC, Abbeville County, SC, Anderson County, SC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Greenwood County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Union County, SC, York County, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
340 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold Canadian high pressure will continue to bring below normal
temperatures to our region for the next 48 hours, and as a result
some of the coldest air we've seen in weeks is expected tonight.
Temperatures will moderate ahead of another cold front,
which will approach the area Saturday. However, seasonable
temperatures are expected to start the new week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday: Still seeing some NW flow snow showers
hitting the mountains, with occasional showers breaking containment.
KAVL reported snow with reduced visibilities for a brief time, and
received a report from McDowell County that some roads were getting
slick. Issued an SPS for counties/areas up against the current
Winter Weather Advisory to hit some of these issues. The upper low
will continue to lift NE today, with NW flow continuing over the
mountains, but moisture pretty much dries up by sunrise across our
area.  The current timing of 12z to end the Winter Weather Advisory
works well. However, gusty winds will continue through the day, and
though they're not quite wind advisory levels in the mountains,
they're JUST under those levels, so combined with the low teens to
single digit lows we'll have this morning, wind chills will be an
issue. Will issue a Wind Chill Advisory starting 12z for
Avery/Mitchell/Yancey through 18z. Some areas >3500ft across the
rest of the mountains will meet advisory levels this morning, but
only for an hour or two after the Winter Weather Advisory expires,
so will continue to wrap that wording into that product.

Very strong CAA will continue today, and highs will struggle to
reach 40 across the NC Piedmont, and maybe low 40s across the
Upstate and NE GA. The mountains will be downright frigid (for
March) with highs below freezing. Winds will drop off somewhat (but
not completely) tonight as the Arctic surface high continues to
settle south, so lows tonight will likely be colder than this
morning - though wind chills will not be quite as brutal. Avery
County however may meet wind chill criteria again, but would be
borderline so without more confidence will defer to the day shift
if a product is needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 AM Wed: High pressure drifts across the area to end the
work week. We will still feel the effects of the Canadian airmass
Thursday; despite sunshine and fairly light winds, maxes should only
reach the lower 50s in the Piedmont and mid to upper 40s in the
mountain valleys. RH is expected to be even lower in the afternoon
compared to today, so at least slightly elevated fire danger will
exist.

The center of the high moves east of the area Thursday night. A warm
front will approach from the southwest as a low-amplitude ridge
begins to build in. Based on current guidance, at least partly cloudy
skies will develop in the western CWFA, if not more of the area. With
thickness trending higher and the potential for cloud cover, the temp
guidance is not as solidly sub-freezing as it was for this morning,
when this morning was at forecast hour 48, so we are a bit more leery
of issuing a fourth-period watch. While it looks like another freeze
is more likely than not over the eastern half of the CWFA, we are
opting to give the next shift a chance to evaluate sky/temp model
trends to better place a Freeze Watch. Especially if the sky cover
trends downward, NE GA and the western Upstate still could dip below
freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 AM Wed: Shortwave ridging flattens over the Southeast
Friday night as another sfc/upper low sink into the eastern
Great Lakes. This will bring another cold front through our area on
Saturday, though max temps that day will manage to rise slightly
above normal. Current model progs don't depict a significant amount
of CAPE ahead of it despite the fropa occurring during the day,
though deep layer flow will be quite strong. If any CAPE were to
develop, so would some severe concern. Temps are expected to be too
warm during the day for any wintry precip, though following the fropa
Saturday night, a brief NW Flow snow event could occur in the
mountains, though at this point accums look minimal.

A more robust upper ridge and high pressure move east in the wake of
the front and will keep settled conditions over the CWFA through at
least Monday evening. Mins will remain below normal Sun-Mon, but
after a cool Sunday maxes are again about normal Monday. A weakening
cold front will lay out south of the Ohio River Monday night, sinking
through the area late Tue if GFS/EC timing hold. This could bring a
few T-storms Tue aftn, though the chance of severe looks small, with
only modest upper flow.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere except KAVL: VFR through the period. SCT low
VFR clouds will continue off and on through the early part of the
overnight hours, with SCT-BKN cirrus clearing through the day. Gusty
NNW winds will continue, with speeds picking up during the day.
Winds will begin to die off after midnight.

At KAVL: -SN/SHSN will continue off and on for the next few hours,
with TEMPO to cover MVFR conditions. Intermittent IFR cannot be
ruled out in heavier showers. Low clouds will begin to scatter out
later this morning. Gusty NNW winds continue this evening and
overnight, with gusts beginning to drop off after midnight but still
low-end gusts possible through the end of the period.

Outlook: The Arctic airmass will persist through the remainder of
the work week, with restrictions unlikely outside the mountains. The
next chance of precipitation and restrictions will be on Friday or
Saturday as another cold front pushes in.

Confidence Table...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A much drier airmass will dominate the region today in the wake of
Tuesday's cold front. Relative humidity values outside the mountains
will drop into the lower 20% range, possibly lower. Gusty winds
will continue as well, with highest winds (outside the mountains)
expected across the NW NC Piedmont. These winds will help to dry
out fuels after yesterday's rain, but fuel moistures remain a bit
too high for any fire danger products today. Winds will be less
of a concern Thursday, but RH that afternoon may drop below 20%,
and fuels are likely to be drier. The need for special products
for Thursday will be re-evaluated this afternoon and tonight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 03-16

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      81 1945     26 1890     60 1945      9 1893
   KCLT      83 1945     32 1892     66 1990     18 1970
   KGSP      83 2015     33 1960     62 1990     20 1916
                2012

RECORDS FOR 03-17

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      85 1945     34 1915     58 1945     17 1890
   KCLT      90 1945     32 1892     66 1945     23 1900
   KGSP      85 1945     38 1998     64 1945     21 1981

RECORDS FOR 03-18

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      83 1908     33 1936     56 1927     15 1941
                            1928
   KCLT      85 2011     35 1892     62 1945     21 1967
   KGSP      86 1963     44 1958     60 1945     19 1902
                                        1927

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Freeze Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for GAZ018-026-028-
     029.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 11 AM EDT Thursday for
     GAZ018-026-028-029.
NC...Freeze Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ035>037-056-
     057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 11 AM EDT Thursday for
     NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059.
     Wind Chill Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this
     afternoon for NCZ033-049-050.
SC...Freeze Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for SCZ004>014-019.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 11 AM EDT Thursday for
     SCZ004>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...TDP
FIRE WEATHER...TDP/Wimberley
CLIMATE...Wimberley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
342 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-151945-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-
342 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...Winter weather and low wind chill possible. Snowfall
will taper off to flurries Wednesday morning. Very cold and windy
conditions will continue and may produce dangerously cold wind
chills at times. Wind gusts as high as 45 mph may occur in high
elevations, and could cause a few power outages.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ501-503-505-151945-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
342 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...Winter weather and low wind chill possible. Snowfall
will taper off to flurries Wednesday morning. Very cold and windy
conditions will continue and may produce dangerously cold wind
chills at times. Wind gusts as high as 45 mph may occur in high
elevations, and could cause a few power outages.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ004>014-019-151945-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Caldwell-
Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
342 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Freeze Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...Frost/freeze likely. Subfreezing temperatures are
likely throughout the early morning hours Wednesday. Additionally,
in the presence of very dry air and breezy conditions persisting
over the region, Fire Danger is likely to be elevated Wednesday
afternoon.
..Thursday...Frost/freeze likely. Subfreezing temperatures are
likely throughout the early morning hours Thursday. A Freeze Watch
is in effect for Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Fire Danger
could increase again Thursday afternoon on account of the very dry
conditions.
..Friday...Frost/freeze possible. Subfreezing temperatures are
possible around daybreak Friday.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-NCZ062>065-507-509-SCZ001>003-151945-
Rabun-Habersham-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
342 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1014 PM EDT TUE MAR 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1013 PM     SNOW             WAYNESVILLE             35.48N  83.00W
03/14/2017  E2.0 INCH        HAYWOOD            NC   PUBLIC

            3500 FEET

&&

VISIN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
231 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017

NCZ062>065-501-503-505-507-509-150945-
Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-
Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-
Including the cities of Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle,
Nantahala Lake, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard,
Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana,
East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Patterson, Jonas Ridge, Ashford,
Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Lake Lure, and Saluda
231 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017

...BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS...

Bands of snow showers coming off the higher peaks along the
Tennessee/North Carolina state line will slowly dissipate over
the next few hours. However, with temperatures below freezing and
continuing to fall into the teens, any snow that falls will likely
create slicks spots especially along elevated surfaces such as
bridges and overpasses. Motorists should exercise caution on area
roads tonight.