Freeze Warning 12, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Habersham County, GA, Rabun County, GA, Alexander County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Union County, NC, Abbeville County, SC, Anderson County, SC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Greenwood County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Union County, SC, York County, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
406 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move northeast of the forecast area today while
lingering light rain and snow showers persist across western North
Carolina into the afternoon. Dry and cool air returns to the region
Monday with a warming trend to above normal temperatures through the
end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Increasingly ragged frontal band of showers will become more
confined to the NC foothills and western Piedmont over the next hour
or so, as it continues to move steadily east. The cold front
currently extends from the Upper Savannah River Valley through the
Blue Ridge escarpment. The front will continue to make slow eastward
progress, until negatively tilted short wave trough ejects over the
region late this morning into the afternoon. That being the case, a
deep NW flow is not expected to overspread the Piedmont and
foothills until afternoon, so clouds/moisture will not completely
scour east of the mountains until that stronger downslope flow is
realized. Meanwhile, as NW flow deepens throughout the morning and
snow levels drop across the mtns, and the short wave approaches the
region, showers are expected to begin generating near the TN border,
with snow becoming likely in the high elevations by mid-day. The
best ingredients for accumulating snow showers will exist this
afternoon into the evening, as the depth of the moisture extends to
the -8C level. Nevertheless, this doesn't appear to be the greatest
setup, and while some light accumulations are expected, mainly above
4000 ft across the TN border counties, amounts are not expected to
be enough to warrant a high elevation advisory. While no accums are
expected in the valleys, a few flurries will probably be seen this
afternoon/evening in the valleys near the TN border.

A very raw/windy day is expected across the mtn today, with maxes
likely occurring this morning (at 20-25 degrees below climo),
followed by steady or slowly falling temps through the afternoon.
Even across the Piedmont and foothills, where a downslope flow will
eventually develop the cool/cloudy start to the day should result in
max temps more than 10 degrees below climo. For tonight, clear skies
and a relaxing gradient are expected to allow min temps to settle to
or just below freezing across much of the NC foothills and western
Piedmont, as well as the SC/GA mtns. A freeze warning will therefore
be issued for these locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Sunday: Upper level heights begin to rise Mon and
will become nearly zonal or very broadly cyclonic thru the short
term. A modified srn stream sfc high will also build north during
this time and become the dominant synoptic feature over the SE
states. Hourly temps will rise fairly quickly and any frost/freeze
issues will be over by 14z. There will be strong winds persisting
across the NC mtns abv 3.5 Kft...which will subside as the p/grad
loosens through noon. A llvl thermal trof will be slow to modify
Mon...even with high insol...holding max temps about 8 degrees F
below normal. In mostly sw/ly flow...temps and td/s will warm to
near normal levels with dry conds persisting thru the column.
Soundings indicate no good chance of Cu nor adv upper clouds as
PWATs remain arnd 0.5 in...thus two sunny to mostly sunny days are
in store.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday: The biggest change made to the ext range
fcst was the lowering of PoPs Thu thru the period. The upper pattern
will remain quasi-zonal or flat cyclonic with some low energy waves
propagating within the mean flow over the FA. The best chance for
precip looks to be Wed night as a good amount of energy interacts
with a moisture over the TN Valley and brings -shra to the mtn
regions enhanced somewhat by s/ly mech lift. The flat pattern wont
allow for the wrn front to move into the area nor retain much
strength. Meanwhile...a broad sfc high will engulf the ern CONUS
allowing little in the way of Atl/GOM moisture adv to the region.
Thus...the going mtn PoPs have been cut back generally into the
slight range Thu thru Fri night. A well defined h5 s/w could reach
the wrn zones Sat which would make for relatively higher precip
coverage over the FA and perhaps some thunder...but most areas shud
remain dry as sfc ridging strengthens and llvl moisture remains
limited. Max temps will begin the period arnd normal and end a cat
or so above normal. The same warming trend is fcst/d for min temps.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Messy aviation weather through at least the
next 6 hours, as gradually diminishing frontal band of showers
continues to work across the area, with at least a couple of hours
of low cigs and perhaps fog expected once the precip end. All TAF
sites except KAVL and KCLT get at least a tempo for LIFR/IFR through
daybreak, while IFR is advertised at KCLT from 09-14Z. Certainly
can't rule out IFR conditions at KAVL either, but we are
anticipating the gusty NW winds that have developed there will keep
the cigs in the MVFR range. Otherwise, reduced visby will generally
be limited to periods of heavier rainfall, mainly over the first 2-4
hours of the period. Winds will begin shifting to the NW around
daybreak, and this will start the process of lifting cigs to MVFR,
which is expected to occur by 10Z at the Upstate SC terminals, but
not until late morning at KHKY/KCLT. Cigs should then lift to VFR at
all terminals by early/mid afternoon. Thinning of the clouds should
also occur, but occl cigs in the 035-050 range will remain possible
through the afternoon. While NW gusts will be most likely at KAVL,
where gusts in the 25-30 kt range will be common, occl gusts to
around 20 kts will be possible at the other terminals from late
morning through the afternoon.

Outlook: Expect clouds to clear by Sunday evening, with breezy
conditions persisting Sunday night. Dry weather expected from that
point into mid-week.

Confidence Table...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       High  92%     High  89%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       Med   79%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  92%     Med   76%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High  85%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High  87%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       Med   66%     Med   73%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday for GAZ010-017.
NC...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday for NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>070-501>510.
     Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Monday for
     NCZ033-048>050-052-501-503-505.
SC...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday for SCZ001>003.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JDL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
513 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

NCZ033-049-050-292115-
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-
513 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

..Sunday...High winds likely. See the latest Wind Advisory product
for more details.
..Monday...High winds likely.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ048-052-053-505-292115-
Madison-Haywood-Buncombe-McDowell Mountains-
513 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY
ABOVE 3500 FEET...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

..Sunday...High winds likely. See the latest Wind Advisory product
for more details.
..Monday...High winds likely.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-051-056>059-062>065-068>072-
082-501>504-506>510-SCZ001>014-019-292115-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Swain-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
513 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...Frost/freeze possible. Cold high pressure will build in
behind a cold front Sunday night and create conditions favorable for
frost, as well as freezing temperatures in some spots.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.