Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

173 
WGUS62 KGSP 211537
FFAGSP

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1137 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

...HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE TODAY...

.A cold front will approach the area through tonight. Abundant 
moisture streaming into the western Carolinas and northeast 
Georgia from the Gulf will allow for development of numerous to
widespread showers through this evening. The heaviest rainfall 
amounts are expected along and just east of the Blue Ridge, 
spreading from south to north through the day.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>050-052-053-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-
212100-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-170522T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-Buncombe-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, 
Cornelia, Baldwin, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Ingalls, 
Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, 
Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, 
Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Mount Mitchell State Park, 
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, 
Cove Creek, Lake Junaluska, Asheville, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, 
Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Nantahala Lake, 
Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, 
Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, 
Tuxedo, Etowah, Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, 
Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, 
Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo, 
Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Lake Lure, Forest City, 
Rutherfordton, Spindale, Saluda, Tryon, Columbus, Lake Adger, 
Mill Spring, Mountain Rest, Walhalla, Westminster, Pumpkintown, 
Tigerville, Gowensville, Caesars Head, Cleveland, and Marietta
1137 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of northeast Georgia, western North Carolina, and 
  upstate South Carolina, including the following areas, in 
  northeast Georgia, Habersham and Rabun. In western North 
  Carolina, Avery, Buncombe, Burke Mountains, Caldwell 
  Mountains, Eastern McDowell, Eastern Polk, Greater Burke, 
  Greater Caldwell, Greater Rutherford, Haywood, Henderson, 
  Macon, Madison, McDowell Mountains, Mitchell, Northern 
  Jackson, Polk Mountains, Rutherford Mountains, Southern 
  Jackson, Transylvania, and Yancey. In upstate South Carolina, 
  Greenville Mountains, Oconee Mountains, and Pickens Mountains. 

* through late tonight

* Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall are expected to impact the
  Blue Ridge and surrounding areas today and tonight. Total 
  rainfall amounts of up to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts 
  are expected through tonight. This includes what has already 
  fallen across the area. 
 
* Heavy rainfall will lead to rapid rises on area creeks and 
  streams, including the headwaters of the Catawba, Broad, 
  Saluda, Chattooga, Tallulah, French Broad and Little Tennessee 
  Rivers. Urban areas may experience isolated flash flooding as 
  well. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
Lane

891 
WGUS62 KGSP 211858
FFAGSP

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
258 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

...HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE TODAY...

.A cold front will approach the area through tonight. Abundant
moisture streaming into the western Carolinas and northeast
Georgia from the Gulf will allow for numerous to widespread 
showers to continue near the Carolina Blue Ridge through this 
evening. 

GAZ010-017-NCZ048-052-059-062>064-SCZ001-002-212000-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-170522T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Rabun-Habersham-Madison-Haywood-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, 
Cornelia, Baldwin, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Faust, 
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, 
Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, 
Lake Junaluska, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, 
Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Nantahala Lake, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, 
Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Mountain Rest, 
Walhalla, Westminster, and Pumpkintown
258 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina, and upstate South Carolina has been cancelled.
Periods of rain will continue through the afternoon across the
area. However, the heaviest rain is expected along the eastern
escarpment of the Blue Ridge and additional rainfall amounts
outside of those areas should be light. 

$$

NCZ033-049-050-053-065-501>510-SCZ003-220300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-170522T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-
Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Greenville Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, 
Mount Mitchell State Park, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Asheville, 
Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, 
Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, 
Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Ashford, 
Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero,
Glenwood, Lake Lure, Forest City, Rutherfordton, Spindale, 
Saluda, Tryon, Columbus, Lake Adger, Mill Spring, Tigerville, 
Gowensville, Caesars Head, Cleveland, and Marietta
258 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina, 
  including the following areas, in western North Carolina, 
  Avery, Buncombe, Burke Mountains, Caldwell Mountains, Eastern 
  McDowell, Eastern Polk, Greater Burke, Greater Caldwell, 
  Greater Rutherford, Henderson, McDowell Mountains, Mitchell, 
  Polk Mountains, Rutherford Mountains, and Yancey. In upstate 
  South Carolina, Greenville Mountains. 

* until 2 AM EDT Monday

* Periods of heavy rainfall will continue to impact the Blue Ridge
  and surrounding areas into the evening hours before the
  precipitation tapers off. Total rainfall amounts of up to 4
  inches, with locally higher amounts are possible through this
  evening. This includes what has already fallen across the area.
  
* Heavy rainfall will lead to rapid rises on area creeks and
  streams, including the headwaters of the Catawba, Broad, Saluda,
  and French Broad Rivers. Urban areas may experience isolated 
  flash flooding as well. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
Lane

409 
WGUS62 KGSP 220228
FFAGSP

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1028 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

...WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THIS EVENING...

NCZ033-049-050-053-065-501>510-SCZ003-220330-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-170522T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-
Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Greenville Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, 
Mount Mitchell State Park, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Asheville, 
Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, 
Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, 
Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Ashford, 
Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero,
Glenwood, Lake Lure, Forest City, Rutherfordton, Spindale, 
Saluda, Tryon, Columbus, Lake Adger, Mill Spring, Tigerville, 
Gowensville, Caesars Head, Cleveland, and Marietta
1028 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of western North Carolina and
upstate South Carolina has been cancelled. No significant heavy 
rainfall is expected overnight in the watch area. High water
levels will slowly recede through the night as well.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
407 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected today
through at least Monday as a large frontal system passes
through the area.  This frontal passage will bring cooler
temperatures as well with Tuesday through Thursday highs 5 to 10
degrees below normal. A deep upper trough approaching in mid week
will result in another area of heavier showers and storms Wednesday
and Wednesday night. Expect dry high pressure and milder
temperatures next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday: We remain in the warm sector this morning,
with backdoor cold front draped from VA into northern NC, and cold
front approaching from the west, attached to a surface low over the
Upper Mississippi Valley. High-amplitude ridging in place up the
Eastern Seaboard will be squished and pushed east from strong upper
low over the Northern Plains, pushing the cold front toward the
Appalachians this morning. Add to this the complication of an MCS
over the Deep South which may leave a remnant MCV to move over the
area today. PW will also be on the increase today, with values of
1.8" or so this morning, which are pretty close to the daily max.
Southerly winds ahead of the front will help to pool this moisture
against the Blue Ridge, with plenty of orographic lift in play. As
the front approaches, low-level flow will begin to veer, losing the
orthogonal component and more mountain-parallel by midday today.
Still, plenty of moisture and synoptic lift combined with surface
flow that will remain backed through the end of the day will still
allow for some decent rainfall totals to start adding up. WPC QPF
from 18-00z tonight is over 1.25" (basin-average) for parts of the
northern mountains. 1hr flash flood guidance is about 2" for those
same areas, and excessive rainfall outlook has kept slight risk over
the area. WPC seems to have slightly higher QPF than some of the
global models, but adding in the convection-allowing schemes and
could see 2-3", possibly up to 4" through the near term along the
Blue Ridge. With that and after collaboration from neighbors
(specifically FFC and RNK), have opted to hoist a Flash Flood Watch
along the Blue Ridge.

As for convective trends today, initial round of rain came through
early this morning, with another round moving into the western
portions of the forecast area at AFD time. Hires guidance has this
weakening but marching across the area through the morning hours,
and then as the remnant MCV moves across, depicting a flare-up in
intensity this afternoon in almost a QLCS-looking feature. Shear is
minimal, but even with rainfall and clouds in place, should see
instability increase to around 1000J/kg at least across the Upstate
this afternoon. While heavy rainfall remains the primary threat,
cannot rule out some gusty winds. We remain only in general thunder
on the Day1 Convective Outlook, but SPC did mention the possibility
of adding a risk area with later updates.

Temperatures will be highly dependent on the few, if any, breaks
that develop in the clouds, especially over the Catawba River
Valley, where it will take a little longer for rain to develop.
Across the rest of the area, should see temperatures at least 10
degrees cooler than what we saw yesterday, and some areas in the
mountains will be over 15 degrees cooler. Plentiful low-level
moisture will result in reduced diurnal range so not significantly
cooler overnight tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Sunday: A cold front will cross the southern
Appalachians Monday morning, weakly pushing through the
CWFA. Abundant moisture and low level convergence will continue
to warrant elevated PoPs, tapering as the frontal zone sets up
east and south of the area Monday night. Synoptic models depict
embedded shortwaves moving across the Deep South within the broader
upper trough, subsequently causing cyclogenesis along this stalled
boundary early Tuesday. As usual there is disagreement in the
exact location thereof, thus causing wide spread in the timing
and expanse of the next wave of precip for the area.

Some drying could occur in the wake of the Tuesday low, particularly
if the GFS verifies. However there is enough spread between
the various solutions that it is prudent to maintain PoPs until
the cyclogenesis process more or less repeats Tuesday night and
Wednesday. That occurs as the next embedded shortwave encounters
the front in a similar position relative to our CWFA. Furthermore,
Wed morning the closed upper low in the core of the trough will be
just to our west, and a secondary shot of dynamic forcing and/or a
cold front will impinge on the area. PoPs finally begin to decline
late Wednesday.

Obviously, hydrologic impacts will continue as rounds of rainfall
continue across the area. NAEFS ensemble mean PWAT values peak
around 2 SD above climo (above 1.75"), and NAM and GFS each depict
a PWAT plume of 1.8" to 2.0" preceding each low. Currently the most
likely track of these lows will keep the best moisture confined to
the Piedmont, a positive note given the expected heavy rainfall
today in the mountains and foothills. I can't rule out that an
extension/expansion of the Flash Flood Watch won't be needed,
however.

Thunderstorms, primarily but not exclusively diurnal in nature, are
forecast each day during the period over most of the area. Sharp
differences in depicted instability limit confidence Tue and Wed.
Relatively small shear on Monday indicates little severe threat,
but hodographs look much more interesting Tue-Wed as the flow
strengthens aloft and with the possibility of the lows enhancing
the low level winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 am Sunday:  The axis of the deep upper trough at 12Z
Thursday should roughly be near a line from Cincinnati to Atlanta.
All deep moisture should be off the Carolina coast and moving away.
Moisture will linger under the trough axis mainly over western
North Carolina and in particular the mountains. At 12Z Thursday, the
new GFS has a closed upper low over KY and the old ECMWF has a
closed low over the Great Lakes. Some instability will be in place
Thursday and if storms develop with the low freezing levels, expect
hail. Both models maintain the closed upper low as they move NE out
of our region with rising heights coming from the Mississippi
Valley. Active weather is shown to ride up the west side of the
upper ridge from TX to the Great Lakes next weekend while our region
stays mostly dry. Passing shortwaves over the Upper Miss Valley
brush a little moisture over the NC Mtns Friday night into Saturday
but otherwise no rain expected across our area. Temperatures on
Thursday about ten degrees below normal rising to around 5 degrees
below Friday and at or slightly above on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Convection and widespread restrictions can be
expected for most of the TAF sites today, with area of TSRA
spreading north from KAND/KGSP/KGMU toward KAVL at TAF time ahead of
an approaching front. Additional convection in GA will work its way
east through the early morning hours. Have prolonged periods of SHRA
VCTS for most sites, though of course the TS may be more
intermittent. For KCLT and KHKY, convection will likely hold off
till closer to noon. Mainly MVFR conditions will prevail, but IFR
also expected this morning for most sites, and occasional IFR to
LIFR conditions can be expected in +SHRA. Winds SSE to start the
period will slowly veer SSW, generally around 5kt, and subsiding
again overnight, but brief vrb gusts in TSRA cannot be ruled out.

Outlook: Periods of showers and thunderstorms with associated
restrictions will continue off and on through the middle of the week.

Confidence Table...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       High  93%     High  82%     Med   68%     Med   77%
KGSP       Med   67%     High  94%     Med   75%     High  86%
KAVL       High  84%     High  89%     Med   77%     High  91%
KHKY       High  89%     High  95%     High  83%     High  83%
KGMU       High  92%     High  89%     Med   79%     High  82%
KAND       High  89%     High  81%     Med   72%     Med   79%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through late
     tonight for GAZ010-017.
NC...Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through late
     tonight for NCZ033-048>050-052-053-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through late
     tonight for SCZ001>003.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...TDP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
330 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-211930-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
330 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorm chances will gradually increase through the evening
hours and overnight. Heavy rainfall is likely with the stronger
thunderstorms and local one inch plus amounts will be possible,
especially in the southern mountains and across northeast Georgia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

..Sunday...Heavy rain with flooding possible. Additional rounds of
heavy rainfall will develop across the area Sunday through Sunday
evening. Localized flooding will be possible in areas receiving
repeated heavy rainfall.
..Monday...Heavy rain possible. A cold front moving slowly through
the region could contribute additional rounds of heavy rainfall.
..Tuesday...Heavy rain possible. Low pressure returning from the
southwest may produce yet another round of heavy rainfall on Tuesday.
72-hour totals could reach 2 to 4 inches in some areas - especially
in southwest sections.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed to relay flooding reports through early in the
week.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1222 AM EDT SUN MAY 21 2017

SCZ002-003-005>007-012-210500-
Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-Laurens SC-
Greenville Mountains SC-Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
1222 AM EDT SUN MAY 21 2017

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL LAURENS...
GREENVILLE...SOUTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG AND NORTHEASTERN PICKENS
COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM EDT...

At 1221 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from near Easley to 8 miles
north of Laurens, and moving north at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenville Downtown, Spartanburg, Greenville Eastside, West
Greenville, Greer, Mauldin, Taylors, Simpsonville, Berea and Five
Forks.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3489 8264 3514 8261 3515 8257 3516 8255
      3516 8254 3517 8250 3516 8250 3517 8249
      3518 8246 3517 8246 3517 8244 3519 8242
      3490 8185 3459 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 0421Z 196DEG 18KT 3486 8258 3462 8207

08