Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
630 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

LATEST UPDATE...
Mesoscale Discussion

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 630 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

Severe weather threat should be limited to isolated, weak
tornadoes and a few hail cores/downbursts this evening. Line of
storms extending from near Traverse City southwest to Milwaukee at
2230Z should be filling in and moving east through the evening
with near sfc winds backed to the east and southeast, enhancing
SRH values and keeping the possibility of transient mesocyclone
formation the next few hours before nocturnal inversion reduces
the threat later this evening.

Some local flooding is also possible as high p-wats and
backbuilding storms could put down 2 to 3 inch rains in an hour.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

A low pressure system will bring showers and thunderstorms through
tonight. Some showers will linger Friday and it will become breezy
and much cooler. Temperatures will average slightly below normal
for this time of year through the weekend into early next week
with high temperatures in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

Primary short term fcst concerns continue to involve determining
convective/svr wx potential through tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop late this
afternoon and early evening as a result of lift/forcing from a
warm front that is draped across our southern fcst area in
conjunction with ml cape values on the order of 1000-1500 j/kg.
This convection will drift slowly northeast and bring potential
for heavy rain and frequent lightning.

Most convection will not be severe but an isolated severe storm
or two is possible late this afternoon with large hail possible with
strongest elevated storms near to north of the warm front. Moderate
elevated instability is present. Isolated damaging wind gusts are
possible mainly over our southern fcst area near to south of I-96
where dcape values have reached around 700-800 j/kg.

Tornadic potential late this afternoon and early evening is very low
due to weak wind fields w/height and weak deep layer shear. The
potential for a very weak tornado is not zero though due to enhanced
directional shear near the warm front.

Additional convective development will occur this evening along
and ahead of the approaching cold front. The better chance for
severe wx with this feature will stay west of our area across
northern IL/southern WI due to more favorable frontal timing
coincident with peak daytime heating.

Nevertheless isolated strong to marginally severe storms are
possible this evening given slowly increasing deep layer shear
in conjunction with weak to moderate instability, lift from the
approaching front and ample low level moisture. Lack of stronger
sfc based instability ahead of the approaching cold front is the
primary mitigating factor for severe wx potential, and upper
level dynamics are also unfavorable.

It will become breezy and much cooler Friday with temperatures
mainly in the 60's most of the day and scattered lingering
showers. Fair wx will return Friday night through Saturday evening
as a high pressure ridge builds in.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

It looks like cooler and wetter weather is on the way for Southwest
Lower Michigan through Thursday and in fact this will go well beyond
that.  CPC shows colder than normal likely through the 16th of
August. The CIPS analogs show a 91 pct chance of being below normal
through the 13th.

As I have continued to write about this week, we have our
hemispheric longwave pattern retrograding about 10 degrees of
longitude by early next week. This puts southwest Michigan near the
base of the longwave trough. For the most part we will be north to
the southern branch of the polar jet too. This will mean a better
chance of widespread rain as each system that moves through and it
also means for the most part cooler than normal.

The first system moves through to our south Sunday into Monday as a
flat wave. Areas near and south of I-96 are more likely to see
rainfall from this event than locations north of I-96. There will be
a dry period in the Tuesday into Wednesday time frame, but then
another system moves into the area as both an northern and southern
stream shortwave move through the base of the longwave trough (near
SW MI).  The models do not have a great handle on this but I do
believe this will be our next general rainfall event.

It should be noted that due the flat nature of these systems it may
well be most of the rainfall will be from rain showers and not
thunderstorms.  We will have to see as we get closer in time just
how much low level jet energy crosses the warm front ahead of each
of these waves.

Once again.... cooler and wetter expected this coming week with the
driest weather likely Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

We have a strong (early fall like intensity) synoptic system
moving through Lower Michigan today and Friday. Several bands of
thunderstorms should cross the TAF sites between now and midnight.
Storms could have hail, gusty winds and will have very heavy rain
and frequent lightning as they move through. Locally LIFR is
expected in the stronger storms.

After the cold front moves through the area just after midnight
VFR conditions should prevail until the secondary cold front
arrives with the colder air and very strong winds (surface and
aloft) just after sunrise. This will bring MVFR ceilings with
strong winds through most of the day Friday. Expect frequent rain
showers at AZO, GRR and MKG but less frequent at BTL, LAN and JXN
on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

A small craft advisory remains in effect from early Friday morning
through Saturday morning. Brisk west winds to 30 knots will cause
wave heights to build to six to near ten feet Friday afternoon
through Friday evening. A beach hazards statement is also in
effect from Friday morning through Saturday morning. Scattered
thunderstorms will also pose a hazard to mariners through late
this evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

Scattered slow moving thunderstorms will bring locally heavy
rainfall late this afternoon and early evening. Localized urban and
small stream type flooding issues are probable where the heaviest
rain falls/rain persists the longest. Significant hydro issues are
unlikely given dry antecedent conditions. An approaching cold front
will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms this evening
before precipitation tapers off rather quickly late tonight.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Friday through Saturday
     morning for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Friday to noon EDT Saturday for
     LMZ844>849.

&&

MESOSCALE...Ostuno
SYNOPSIS...Laurens
SHORT TERM...Laurens
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...Laurens
MARINE...Laurens

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1120 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-040800-
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
1120 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms exists this afternoon
through tonight. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary
risks. Locally heavy rain and frequent cloud to ground lightning
strikes may accompany any of the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A few additional thunderstorms are possible Friday morning. Severe
weather is not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later today into tonight.

LMZ844>849-040800-
St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI-
Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI-
Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI-
1120 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms into tonight may pose a risk to mariners with
frequent cloud to water lightning strikes and gusty winds.

Swimming and boating conditions will become hazardous later
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The hazardous swimming and boating conditions will continue into
Saturday morning. Minor beach erosion is possible Friday due to high
winds and waves.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later today into tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
609 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2017

MIZ059-032315-
Clinton MI-
609 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

At 608 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Edgemont Park,
or near Waverly, moving north-northeast at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph with downed tree limbs
will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
St. Johns...           East Lansing...        Grand Ledge...
Elsie...               Dewitt...              Eureka...
Ovid...                Fowler...              Westphalia...
Maple Rapids...        Pewamo...              Hubbardston...
Eagle...               Wacousta...            Bath...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4277 8484 4312 8484 4312 8437 4277 8437
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 200DEG 29KT 4279 8461

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
625 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     HAIL             2 N EDGEMONT PARK       42.77N 84.59W
08/03/2017  E0.25 INCH       CLINTON            MI   PUBLIC

&&

WH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
631 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2017

MIZ037-043-050-032330-
Oceana MI-Muskegon MI-Mason MI-
631 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

At 630 PM EDT, a strong line of thunderstorms extended from 6 miles
north of Scottville to near Silver Lake SP. Movement was northeast
at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph with downed tree limbs
will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Ludington...           Hart...                Shelby...
Whitehall...           Montague...            Lakewood Club...
Scottville...          Hesperia...            Fountain...
Mears SP...            Silver Lake SP...      Holton...
Weare...               Elbridge...            Colfax...
New Era...             Rothbury...            Custer...
Walkerville...         Stony Lake...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4367 8653 4380 8643 4395 8646 4393 8645
      4394 8643 4396 8646 4405 8642 4410 8604
      4340 8604 4333 8640 4362 8654
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 240DEG 27KT 4404 8633 4367 8649 4334 8682

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
640 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N EDGEMONT PARK       42.78N 84.59W
08/03/2017  M46 MPH          CLINTON            MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION LAN, CAPITAL CITY AIRPORT.

&&

TJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
711 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSW DIMONDALE         42.63N 84.66W
08/03/2017  E55 MPH          EATON              MI   PUBLIC

            SOME TREE BRANCHES AND WIRES DOWN. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

TJT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
725 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2017

MIZ038-044-040015-
Lake MI-Newaygo MI-
725 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

At 725 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Wolf Lake to near Hesperia. Movement was
northeast at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph with downed tree limbs
will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Baldwin...             Hesperia...            Luther...
Chase...               Brohman...             Woodland Park...
Hawkins...             Nirvana...             Wolf Lake...
Idlewild...            Woodville...           Bristol...
Bitely...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4365 8556 4350 8604 4387 8604 4398 8601
      4417 8557
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 241DEG 39KT 4399 8586 4358 8602

CAS