Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
329 AM EST Tue Mar 7 2017

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM EST Tue Mar 7 2017

A powerful low pressure system will track eastward through Ontario
today through Wednesday. This system will generate high winds
across the Great Lakes Region over the next couple of days. A cold
airmass will flow in from the Canadian Prairies through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM EST Tue Mar 7 2017

Will go with a wind advisory for lakeshore counties today. Strong
mixing coupled with favorable wind fields around the frontal zone
will support some gusts over 40 knots. We may need to expand the
headlines inland as models are suggesting a few hours of deeper
mixing behind the front which could resulting in tapping the 40
knot winds. Scattered power outages look possible.

A greater risk for numerous power outages exists for Wednesday.
The question is how deep will we mix. If we end up with mostly
cloudy to cloud skies...the mixing may not reach to 50 knot winds.
Nearly all guidance shows the mixing heights reaching this
level...so will hoist the watch and see how it evolves. High wind
watch for Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM EST Tue Mar 7 2017

Temperatures will average around 5 to 15 degrees below normal for
this time of year Friday through the weekend. A ridge of high
pressure will build in from the northwest and bring fair weather
Friday through Friday night.

A consensus of latest medium range guidance continues to suggest
that all of the snow with the system that will move east from the
southern Plains to the Carolinas will stay well south of lower
Michigan Saturday into Saturday night. A ridge of high pressure will
briefly build in for Sunday.

A low pressure system which will move east from the upper midwest
into our region will bring a chance of light snow Sunday night
through Monday. Fair wx will return Tuesday as another ridge builds
in.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1107 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2017

A mix of mvfr/ifr conditions will continue overnight with
scattered showers. Scattered thunderstorms will also develop
during the early morning hours mainly between 07Z Tue and 11Z Tue.
It will remain breezy overnight with southerly winds of 20 to 25
kts and gusts to around 30 kts.

Conditions will gradually improve to primarily mvfr later Tuesday
morning with some lingering showers and it will remain windy.
Conditions should improve to mainly vfr from late Tuesday morning
through Tuesday evening but windy conditions will continue through
the afternoon with wsw winds sustained at 20-25 kts with gusts to
around 30 kts and even a bit higher than that at KMKG and KGRR.
Winds will finally diminish Tuesday evening before ramping back up
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM EST Tue Mar 7 2017

To keep marine headlines simple...I decided to stretch the Gale
Warning through Wednesday...otherwise we would have 3 headlines to
cover the windy conditions. Gales to start today...then a lull to
20 to 30 knot winds...followed by a return to Gales for later
tonight into Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 330 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2017

Most rivers are falling and only minor or nuisance flooding is
occurring near the banks of four river points. Basin average
rainfall amounts around a quarter inch are expected Monday night,
which may cause the rivers to temporarily level off or rise
slightly. Significant rainfall events do not appear likely this
week, so this should give rivers time to subside.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Wind Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ037-043-050-
     056-064-071.

     High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening
     for MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ844>849.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...Laurens
AVIATION...Laurens
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
343 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2017

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-070845-
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
343 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Locally heavy rain and a few thunderstorms are possible tonight.
Cloud to ground lightning strikes and ponding of the water on the
roadways are the main hazards. Any stronger storm could cause the
winds to gust over 40 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Very windy conditions look likely for Wednesday. Power outages
are possible.

Over the weekend there may be some slick roads as a result of
possible light snow.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ844>849-070845-
St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI-
Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI-
Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI-
343 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The wind is forecasted to increase to gale force this afternoon
and persist into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Hazardous boating conditions will continue into the end of the
week.  Gales look likely for Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
122 AM EST TUE MAR 7 2017

MIZ037-038-043-044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072-070915-
Oceana-Kalamazoo-Muskegon-Lake-Allegan-Van
Buren-Ottawa-Barry-Newaygo-Mason-Kent-
122 AM EST TUE MAR 7 2017

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS ...

Winds will gust over 40 mph at times tonight. Wind gusts of 50 to 55
mph are possible between 3 and 4 AM as a line of showers and
thunderstorms moves through.

LAT...LON 4207 8622 4224 8622 4224 8636 4245 8626
      4272 8621 4309 8625 4362 8654 4382 8643
      4406 8651 4416 8640 4416 8558 4329 8556
      4329 8546 4277 8539 4277 8507 4242 8507
      4242 8534 4207 8529
TIME...MOT...LOC 0616Z 113DEG 38KT 4377 8567

OSTUNO

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