Alert archive / Michigan / River Flood Advisories in 2017

River Flood Advisory 91, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

April 11, 2017Kalamazoo County, Michigan

NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued this river flood advisory at Apr 11, 2017, 12:31 AM EDT for Kalamazoo County, Michigan. It was in force for 3 days.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Apr 11, 2017, 12:31 AM EDT (04:31 UTC)
Expired: Apr 14, 2017, 2:00 AM EDT
In force: 3 days
Issued by: NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Area: Storm-based polygon

County Kalamazoo County, MI

The radar

The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Kalamazoo River at Comstock (CMSM4).

Action stage: 7 ft
Minor stage: 9 ft
Moderate stage: 10 ft
Major stage: 11 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 04106000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Rapids, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood advisory went out at Apr 10, 9:41 PM EDT, 2 hours 50 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 10, 9:41 PM EDT, 2 hours 50 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
941 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017

LATEST UPDATE...
Update

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017

Showers and thunderstorms...some strong to severe...will move
through West Michigan this evening. Cooler and drier weather is
expected Tuesday into Wednesday...with another chance of rain on
Thursday. Warmer temperatures are expected Friday into the weekend
with rain chances also increasing from Friday night through early
Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017

The main area of convection is moving east with the frontal wave.
Within the next 2 hours the convection should be out of the area.
We could have a few lingering light rain showers will follow as
the colder air comes in.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017

Immediate concern is impact of convection tonight.  Radar indicates
showers and thunderstorms over Illinois moving to the northeast.
Short range models are in good agreement moving the showers and
thunderstorms through the forecast area by 06Z. Precipitable water
values are well above normal...just over an inch on the 12Z DTX
sounding. Models show values increasing to between 1.25 and 1.5
inches as the system moves through this evening. Ground moisture
is still high from the rainfall event last Wednesday. While heavy
rainfall will accompany the stronger storms...do not think that
the coverage or duration will be enough to warrant a flood watch
headline. Thanks to DTX and APX for coordination on this issue.

May see some light rain across northern sections in the wrap
around early Tuesday. Will maintain low chance pops for the first
part of Tuesday...before 18Z. Dry weather is then expected
Wednesday...with another weather maker approaching late Wednesday
night into Thursday. Trend has been for the system to weaken as it
moves east...so will continue to advertise rain but expect
amounts to be on the light side.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017

Rain chances will increase once again late Friday night as strong
warm advection redevelops over the region. Expect significant
chances for rain to continue through Sunday afternoon when a cold
front moves through...ushering in a drier and cooler airmass for
the first part of the upcoming work week. Rain chances will
increase again by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017

The area of convection tracking east with and just ahead of the
main surface low (which is just ahead of the developing upper low)
will track east across the TAF sites between now and 10 pm. The
I-96 TAF sites will have a more continuous rain event than those
along I-94 but even there they should get the convection with the
cold front. I did not put gusty winds in the TAF for the storms
but it is not out of the question.

Behind the convection we have a large area of low clouds that will
move in behind the rain area so I would expect IFR cigs at most of
the TAF sites between 09z and 18z. Conditions should improve
slowly after that.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017

Small Craft Advisory continues in effect this evening. Latest
guidance suggests a continued weakening trend in wave heights and
wind speeds...so will maintain the advisory through this evening
but expect it to be allowed to expire.  East to southeast wind
develops Wednesday through Thursday...but wave activity will not
increase significantly in the nearshore.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017

Minor river flooding is ongoing across Southwest Lower Michigan. The
Grand River in Comstock Park is the only site at, or expected to
reach, moderate flood levels. The river should continue in moderate
flood through Tuesday. Most sites have crested or are cresting and
should fall into tonight. Showers and thunderstorms today and
tonight should produce up to an inch of rain. However if multiple
storms move over the same area, locally heavy rain is possible.
The rain from these storms should not be a problem, unless they
track over a river basin.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MWS

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 10, 11:26 PM EDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1126 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-120200-
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
1126 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The heavy rain from earlier has caused some minor flooding in low
lying areas. Some roads remain blocked due to flooding in some
areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

High water levels will continue through the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ844>849-120200-
St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI-
Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI-
Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI-
1126 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

wdm

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 10, 9:20 PM EDT, 3 hours 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
920 PM EDT MON APR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 W ADA                 42.95N 85.53W
04/10/2017  M1.91 INCH       KENT               MI   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 60
            MINUTES.

&&

JAM

Local storm report, Apr 10, 9:22 PM EDT, 3 hours 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
922 PM EDT MON APR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW FREEPORT          42.80N 85.34W
04/10/2017                   KENT               MI   PUBLIC

            KENT COUNTY SAR REPORTS BARN DESTROYED ON
            92ND STREET. DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH TORNADIC
            DEBRIS SIGNATURE SEEN ON RADAR.

&&

TJT

Local storm report, Apr 10, 9:23 PM EDT, 3 hours 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
923 PM EDT MON APR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 PM     HAIL             4 NW SAINT JOHNS        43.04N 84.61W
04/10/2017  E0.25 INCH       CLINTON            MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JAM

Local storm report, Apr 10, 9:24 PM EDT, 3 hours 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
924 PM EDT MON APR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0903 PM     HAIL             3 SSE HAMILTON          42.64N 85.98W
04/10/2017  E0.25 INCH       ALLEGAN            MI   PUBLIC

            REPORTED AT 130TH AND M40, HAMILTON, MI.

&&

JAM

Local storm report, Apr 10, 9:34 PM EDT, 2 hours 57 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
934 PM EDT MON APR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW FREEPORT          42.80N 85.34W
04/10/2017                   KENT               MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            UPDATED: KENT COUNTY SAR REPORTS BARN
            DESTROYED ON 92ND STREET. DAMAGE ASSOCIATED
            WITH TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE SEEN ON
            RADAR. TREES REPORTED BLOCKING 92ND STREET
            BETWEEN WINGEIER AND FREEPORT AVE.

&&

JAM

Local storm report, Apr 10, 9:39 PM EDT, 2 hours 52 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
939 PM EDT MON APR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     HEAVY RAIN       EAST GRAND RAPIDS       42.95N 85.61W
04/10/2017  M1.38 INCH       KENT               MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR. OBSERVER NOTED
            STANDING WATER IN STREET. BRETON/ELMWOOD IS
            CLOSED DUE TO STANDING WATER.

&&

JAM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 10, 8:02 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GRR	Kent	28 min
Apr 10, 8:03 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	GRR	Allegan, Kent, Ottawa	6 hr
Apr 10, 8:11 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Kent	34 min
Apr 10, 8:26 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GRR	Barry	34 min
Apr 10, 8:34 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	GRR		26 min
Apr 10, 8:37 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	GRR	Ionia, Kent	23 min
Apr 10, 8:47 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Allegan	28 min
Apr 10, 9:03 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	GRR	Clinton, Gratiot, Ionia	6 hr
Apr 10, 11:00 PM EDT	River Flood Warning	GRR	Clinton	5 days
Apr 10, 11:46 PM EDT	River Flood Warning	GRR	Kent	50 hr
Apr 10, 11:46 PM EDT	River Flood Warning	GRR	Kent	50 hr
Apr 11, 12:31 AM EDT	River Flood Advisory	GRR	Ingham	37 hr
Apr 11, 1:59 AM EDT	River Flood Advisory	GRR	Calhoun	42 hr
Apr 11, 10:25 AM EDT	River Flood Advisory	GRR	Kalamazoo	36 hr
Apr 11, 4:25 PM EDT	River Flood Advisory	GRR	Ionia	29 days

Nearby

River Flood Advisories in Michigan, 2017 Every river flood advisory in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.