River Flood Advisory 49, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

308 
WGUS83 KGRR 021657
FLSGRR


FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1157 AM EST THU MAR 2 2017

...The Flood Advisory is cancelled for the following river in 
Southwest Lower Michigan...

  Red Cedar River Above Williamston affecting Ingham County
  Flat River Near Smyrna affecting Ionia County

...The flood advisory continues for the following rivers in Southwest
Lower Michigan...

  Grand River At Lowell affecting Kent County
  Grand River Near Comstock Park affecting Kent County
  Looking Glass River Near Eagle affecting Clinton County
  Thornapple River Above Hastings affecting Barry County
  Kalamazoo River At Marshall affecting Calhoun County
  Muskegon River At Evart affecting Osceola County
  Muskegon River Near Croton affecting Newaygo County
  Grand River At Ionia affecting Ionia County
  Sycamore Creek At Holt affecting Ingham County
  Red Cedar River At East Lansing affecting Ingham County
  Maple River At Maple Rapids affecting Clinton County
  Pere Marquette River Near Scottville affecting Mason County
  Chippewa River Below Mt Pleasant affecting Isabella County

.Cold air and lake effect snow expected into the weekend with
light frozen precipitation. This should help limit the minor
flooding due to the rain over the last 2 days. The following forecast
is based on observed and forecast 48 hour precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message... Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

A flood advisory means minor flooding is possible and rivers are 
forecast to exceed bankfull. If you are in the advisory area, remain 
alert to possible flooding or the possibility of the advisory being
upgraded to a warning. Report observed flooding to local emergency 
services or law enforcement and request they pass this information on
to the National Weather Service.

Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local 
radio, television, or NOAA Weather Radio station for further 
information.

&&

MIC067-031857-
/O.CON.KGRR.FL.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/IONM4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1157 AM EST THU MAR 2 2017

The Flood Advisory continues for
  the Grand River At Ionia
* until further notice.
* at 10 AM Thursday the stage was 16.4 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 13.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast, the river will rise to near 17.3 feet by early Saturday 
  morning.
* Impact, at 18.0 feet...Water surrounds automobile building at Ionia
  Fairgrounds.

&&

LAT...LON 4290 8521 4296 8499 4303 8488 4297 8524
                                      
$$

MIC081-031856-
/O.EXT.KGRR.FL.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-170308T0600Z/
/LWLM4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1157 AM EST THU MAR 2 2017

The Flood Advisory is extended for
  the Grand River At Lowell
* until late Tuesday night.
* There is not current observed data. At 07 AM Thursday the stage
  was estimated at 9.1 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 10.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast, the river will rise to near 10.6 feet Saturday morning.
* Impact, at 10.0 feet...River is bankfull. Expect flooding of low 
  lying areas adjacent to the banks.

&&

LAT...LON 4289 8548 4289 8534 4290 8521 4297 8524
      4296 8534 4298 8541             

$$

MIC081-031856-
/O.EXT.KGRR.FL.Y.0048.000000T0000Z-170308T0600Z/
/CMPM4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1157 AM EST THU MAR 2 2017

The Flood Advisory is extended for
  the Grand River Near Comstock Park
* until late Tuesday night.
* at 08 AM Thursday the stage was 10.1 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 11.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast, the river will rise to near 11.4 feet by Sunday morning.
* Impact, at 11.0 feet...River is bankfull.

&&

LAT...LON 4297 8563 4303 8562 4302 8559 4309 8557
      4308 8570 4298 8572             

$$

MIC065-031856-
/O.CON.KGRR.FL.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-170306T0600Z/
/HHTM4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1157 AM EST THU MAR 2 2017

The Flood Advisory continues for
  the Sycamore Creek At Holt
* until late Sunday night.
* There is not current observed data. At 07 AM Thursday the stage
  was estimated at 7.3 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 6.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast, the river will fall to near 6.9 feet this afternoon.
* Impact, at 6.0 feet...Flooding begins in low lying areas along the 
  creek and at the Lansing Municipal Golf Course and Scott Woods 
  Park.

&&

LAT...LON 4271 8455 4268 8455 4264 8451 4264 8445
      4268 8449 4271 8451             

$$

MIC065-021727-
/O.CAN.KGRR.FL.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-170304T1800Z/
/WMSM4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1157 AM EST THU MAR 2 2017

The Flood Advisory is cancelled for
  the Red Cedar River Above Williamston.
* at 11 AM Thursday the stage was 6.8 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 7.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast, the river will crest below flood stage at 6.9 feet this 
  afternoon.
* Impact, at 7.0 feet...River is bankfull. Overflow begins in low 
  lying areas adjacent to the river.

&&

LAT...LON 4268 8438 4265 8427 4265 8419 4272 8419
      4272 8427 4274 8438             

$$

MIC065-031856-
/O.CON.KGRR.FL.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-170305T1800Z/
/ELNM4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1157 AM EST THU MAR 2 2017

The Flood Advisory continues for
  the Red Cedar River At East Lansing
* until Sunday afternoon.
* at 11 AM Thursday the stage was 5.9 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 6.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Forecast, the river will rise to near 6.1 feet by tomorrow morning.
* Impact, at 6.0 feet...River reaches bankfull and low lying areas 
  flood.

&&

LAT...LON 4271 8455 4270 8447 4268 8438 4274 8438
      4275 8447 4274 8454             

$$

MIC037-031856-
/O.EXT.KGRR.FL.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-170305T0600Z/
/EAGM4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1157 AM EST THU MAR 2 2017

The Flood Advisory is extended for
  the Looking Glass River Near Eagle
* until late Saturday night.
* at 10 AM Thursday the stage was 5.4 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 5.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Forecast, the river will remain near 5.4 feet through this
  afternoon.
* Impact, at 5.0 feet...River is bankfull.

&&

LAT...LON 4283 8489 4279 8474 4281 8455 4287 8455
      4286 8474 4290 8489             

$$

MIC037-031856-
/O.CON.KGRR.FL.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MRPM4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1157 AM EST THU MAR 2 2017

The Flood Advisory continues for
  the Maple River At Maple Rapids
* until further notice.
* at 11 AM Thursday the stage was 8.2 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 7.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast, the river will rise to near 8.4 feet by tomorrow morning.
* Impact, at 9.0 feet...Expect minor flooding of County Line Road and
  a home along County Line Road.

&&

LAT...LON 4298 8493 4308 8468 4310 8457 4317 8456
      4314 8471 4302 8495             

$$

MIC067-021727-
/O.CAN.KGRR.FL.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-170307T0600Z/
/SMYM4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1157 AM EST THU MAR 2 2017

The Flood Advisory is cancelled for
  the Flat River Near Smyrna.
* at 10 AM Thursday the stage was 5.0 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 5.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.5 feet.
* Forecast, the river will crest below flood stage at 5.2 feet 
  Saturday early afternoon.
* Impact, at 5.5 feet...River is bankfull. Overflow begins in low 
  areas adjacent to the river.

&&

LAT...LON 4312 8527 4306 8530 4298 8541 4296 8534
      4296 8528 4308 8520             

$$

MIC015-031856-
/O.EXT.KGRR.FL.Y.0045.000000T0000Z-170306T0600Z/
/HSTM4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1157 AM EST THU MAR 2 2017

The Flood Advisory is extended for
  the Thornapple River Above Hastings
* until late Sunday night.
* at 11 AM Thursday the stage was 4.7 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 5.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Forecast, the river will rise to near 5.1 feet by tomorrow evening.
* Impact, at 5.0 feet...River is bankfull. Expect minor flooding of 
  low lying areas and farmland adjacent to the river.

&&

LAT...LON 4268 8550 4259 8523 4260 8516 4266 8517
      4265 8524 4273 8541             

$$

MIC025-031856-
/O.EXT.KGRR.FL.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-170304T0600Z/
/MARM4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1157 AM EST THU MAR 2 2017

The Flood Advisory is extended for
  the Kalamazoo River At Marshall
* until late Friday night.
* at 10 AM Thursday the stage was 5.8 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 6.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast, the river will rise to near 6.1 feet by this evening.
* Impact, at 6.0 feet...River is bankfull. Expect minor flooding of 
  farmland and pastures adjacent to the river

&&

LAT...LON 4225 8512 4223 8501 4222 8490 4228 8490
      4230 8501 4231 8508             

$$

MIC105-031856-
/O.CON.KGRR.FL.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-170305T1200Z/
/SCTM4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1157 AM EST THU MAR 2 2017

The Flood Advisory continues for
  the Pere Marquette River Near Scottville
* until Sunday morning.
* at 11 AM Thursday the stage was 4.0 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 4.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 5.5 feet.
* Forecast, the river will continue to fall.
* Impact, at 4.0 feet...River is bankfull. Overflow of low lying 
  areas adjacent to the river occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 4391 8627 4391 8624 4390 8619 4396 8619
      4397 8624 4396 8632             

$$

MIC133-031856-
/O.EXT.KGRR.FL.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-170305T1730Z/
/EVRM4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1157 AM EST THU MAR 2 2017

The Flood Advisory is extended for
  the Muskegon River At Evart
* until Sunday afternoon.
* at 11 AM Thursday the stage was 10.3 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 10.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast, the river will remain near 10.3 feet through this
  afternoon.
* Impact, at 10.5 feet...Flood waters begin to surround homes 
  upstream of Evart in the Jeffery subdivision along Linden and 
  Riverside Roads. Portions of Linden and Riverside Roads in the 
  Jeffery subdivision begin to go underwater. High water also begins 
  to cover Trout Drive in the Doc and Tom subdivision located just 
  east of m66 off of 9 Mile Road.

&&

LAT...LON 4384 8532 4387 8523 4391 8515 4398 8515
      4395 8527 4390 8537             

$$

MIC123-031856-
/O.EXT.KGRR.FL.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-170306T1730Z/
/CROM4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1157 AM EST THU MAR 2 2017

The Flood Advisory is extended for
  the Muskegon River Near Croton
* until Monday afternoon.
* at 11 AM Thursday the stage was 7.9 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 8.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast, the river will rise to near 8.2 feet by tomorrow evening.
* Impact, at 8.0 feet...River is bankfull. River begins to exceed its
  banks and minor flooding begins in low lying areas along the river.

&&

LAT...LON 4328 8604 4338 8578 4342 8562 4346 8570
      4345 8582 4335 8604             

$$

MIC073-031800-
/O.CON.KGRR.FL.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-170303T1800Z/
/MPTM4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1157 AM EST THU MAR 2 2017

The Flood Advisory continues for
  the Chippewa River Below Mt Pleasant
* until Friday afternoon.
* at 11 AM Thursday the stage was 6.3 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 6.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast, the river will continue to fall.
* Impact, at 6.0 feet...River is bankfull. Expect minor flooding of 
  low lying areas adjacent to the river.

&&

LAT...LON 4356 8480 4360 8472 4358 8461 4366 8461
      4367 8475 4362 8485             

$$

63

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
931 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

LATEST UPDATE...
Update

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 306 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

A much colder airmass will continue to move in tonight through the
rest of the week. Snow will continue to develop late this
afternoon through this evening. Light lake effect snow showers and
flurries will linger through Friday. Temperatures will undergo
a gradual moderating trend this weekend into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

We have allowed the advisory to expire on time this evening for
the Northern counties. The best snow bands with the deformation
zone/mid level fgen has shifted to the SE corner of the CWFA where
pcpn has just recently turned over to snow. Some visibilities are
still down around a mile, but the radar echoes have lightened up
quite a bit. The snow will end over the next few hours, and even
quicker up north.

Some light lake effect will be possible overnight as low level
temps will drop down into the negative mid teens. Inversion
heights will be quite limited in the wake of the low. This will
limit the amount of snow showers around, and accums.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 306 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

Mid level fgen and deformation zone processes will combine to
bring snow late this afternoon through tonight. Snow accumulations
of up to around 4 inches are anticipated over our northern fcst area
where the transition from rain to snow occurred faster.

The winter wx advisory will remain unchanged for our northern fcst
area since the snow in conjunction with windy conditions and
falling temps late this aftn/eve will result in increasingly
hazardous travel conditions.

Further south we did tweak the snow amount fcst up a bit to around
2 to near 3 inches for the I-96 corridor from near KGRR off the wnw
to near KMKG. This was based on trends of a consensus of latest
higher res guidance and sfc obs/radar trends which show a rather
expansive area of moderate to locally heavy snow over much of WI.

Snow showers will taper off very late tonight into Thursday. An
upper level disturbance will bring a few light snow showers and
flurries tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening but any snow
accumulations would be very light at under an inch.

Temperatures will be unseasonably cold Thursday through Friday
with high temps only reaching the middle 20's to lower 30's with
mins mainly in the teens.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

Our next big storm is in the Mon/Tue time frame. This will be like
the system last Friday and the system yesterday into today. We get a
good surge of warm moist gulf air, that will lead to showers,
thunderstorms (possible severe storms / 60 knot low level jet into
MI) then a Sharp cool down with lake enhanced snow showers by mid
week.

It would seem this up and down weather pattern we now are into will
continue through next week and maybe beyond that. While there are
signals that would support a more stable eastern Trough (MJO /
stratospheric warming over Canada) the much warmer than normal Gulf
of Mexico seems to be trying to force and eastern ridge so we can't
get a stable eastern trough.

One note on the colder side of the forecast, since the ECMWF and GFS
do not agree on how fast to move this system through timing
difference have caused me to lower the Lake effect snow shower
effect pops Wednesday.  Once we figure out just how and when the
cold air comes back in we can increase the pop for snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 702 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

The worst weather over the next 24 hours will be in the first few
hours of this fcst. The snow on the back side of the system is
currently overhead, and will last through most of the evening. We
expect to see the back edge of the snow move through KMKG around
05Z, and progress through the remainder of the area by 08-09z.
IFR conditions will be fairly predominate, mostly due to vsbys.
There will be some IFR also due to isolated cigs. Wind gusts up
around 20-25 knots will persist much of the night.

Conditions will improve to MVFR overnight as snow mostly comes to
an end. Can't rule out a few flurries, but they should not be a
factor. Conditions should become VFR toward 16-18Z on Thu as cigs
lift.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

A small craft advisory remains in effect through early Thursday
morning. Brisk nw winds to 30 kts will result in wave heights to 4
to 8 feet tonight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 141 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

One to over two inches of precipitation fell over most of Southwest
Lower Michigan over the last couple of days and considerable rises
are occurring on area rivers. Only minor flooding is expected
through the weekend. Another system early next week may drop another
inch of rain and may lead to increased flooding problems through
next week.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Thursday for
     LMZ844>849.

     Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for LMZ844>849.

&&

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...Laurens
SHORT TERM...Laurens
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...Laurens

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
320 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-020830-
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
320 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Travel could be impacted by snow this afternoon and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Lake effect snow showers could impact travel Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ844>849-020830-
St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI-
Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI-
Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI-
320 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Winds and waves will pose a hazard to small craft.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

OSTUNO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
907 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 W GRAND HAVEN         43.06N 86.26W
03/01/2017  M53 MPH          LMZ846             MI   MESONET

            WXFLOW MESONET STATION GRAND HAVEN
            BREAKWATER /XGHL/.

0702 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SW WHITEHALL          43.37N 86.42W
03/01/2017  M50 MPH          MUSKEGON           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION WHITEHALL LIGHTHOUSE
            /D2963/.

0733 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNW SAUGATUCK         42.68N 86.22W
03/01/2017  M48 MPH          LMZ845             MI   MESONET

            WXFLOW MESONET STATION SAUGATUCK BREAKWATER
            /XSTK/.

0700 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NW ROOSEVELT PARK     43.23N 86.34W
03/01/2017  M46 MPH          MUSKEGON           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MUSKEGON GLERL /MKGM4/.

0818 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST MACATAWA                42.77N 86.21W
03/01/2017  M44 MPH          OTTAWA             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION HOLLAND HARBOR /HLNM4/.

0640 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 8 NNW LUDINGTON         44.05N 86.51W
03/01/2017  M44 MPH          MASON              MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION BIG SABLE POINT /BSBM4/.

&&

CAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1005 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     SNOW             1 NW MCBRIDE            43.36N 85.06W
03/01/2017  M1.5 INCH        MONTCALM           MI   PUBLIC

            OBSERVER ALSO REPORTED SNOW COVERED/SLICK
            ROADS. .

&&

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1008 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     SNOW             1 WSW GRANDVILLE        42.90N 85.78W
03/01/2017  M1.4 INCH        KENT               MI   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 1.4 INCHES OCCURRED OVER
            THE LAST 4.5 HOURS. MOST OF THE SNOW FELL
            BETWEEN 7P-8P WITH 1.0 IN THE HOUR. .

&&

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1015 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1012 PM     SNOW             NORTON SHORES           43.16N 86.25W
03/01/2017  M1.5 INCH        MUSKEGON           MI   PUBLIC

            OBSERVER REPORTED THAT SNOW IS WET AND HEAVY
            WITH A LAYER OF SLUSH THAT REFROZE. MOISTURE
            CONTENT MEASURED 0.34 INCHES.

&&

JAM