Special Weather Statement, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
439 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017

The main emphasis to this part of the forecast will be
precipitation trends through this evening due to the advancing
cold front and mainly for Wednesday afternoon due to instability
and passage of a mid-level shortwave.

The 19z MSAS surface analysis indicated a pre-frontal trough that
stretched from central Lake Superior southwest through northeast
WI into northeast IA. The cold front extended from western Lake
Superior southwest through northwest WI into southeast MN. The
radar mosaic showed two lines of showers and thunderstorms
associated with the aforementioned features.

Scattered showers/thunderstorms will continue to push across the
forecast area as the pre-frontal trough exits the area late this
afternoon and the cold front slowly moves southeast tonight. Lack
of shear and weakening instability should preclude any storms from
becoming severe, however small hail and gusty winds are possible.
The main impact from this frontal passage may be heavy rain with
dew points in the 60s to around 70 degrees and PW values around
1.5 inches. Most of the precipitation is expected to diminish this
evening north, around or shortly after midnight south. There could
be some patchy fog development late tonight depending on how much
precipitation fell. Min temperatures to range from the middle to
upper 50s north-central, middle 60s east-central WI.

Drier air will be slow to overspread the region on Wednesday and
with some models showing a weak mid-level shortwave moving across
WI during peak heating, there will be a chance of mainly afternoon
showers and thunderstorms over most of northeast WI. The exception
may be far eastern WI where northeast winds to bring a stable
marine layer inland. Otherwise, morning clouds should break into a
mix of sun and clouds with cooler temperatures. Look for readings
to only reach the lower to middle 70s north-central/near Lake MI,
mainly upper 70s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017

The main concerns during this part of the forecast are potential
for showers and storms, especially for the latter half of the work
week. Models continued to show differences in the track of a
surface low that is forecast to move across Wisconsin Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night. The NAM, GFS, Canadian and ECMWF
all showed measurable rain across the entire area. The NAM kept
the low to our south, while the others had at least part of the
area in the warm sector of the system. The SPC severe outlook for
day 3, 12Z Thu through 12Z Fri, had a small part of the southern
forecast area in a marginal risk of severe. This may need to be
pushed a little farther north since the 12Z model run showed the
low taking a more northerly track than 00Z run. An upper level
cyclone is expected to pass through Wisconsin on Friday, keeping
at least chance PoPs going through the day. Looks like there could
be some rainfall totals in excess of 2 inches across some part of
the area before the event is done.

Much cooler temperatures are in store for Thursday and Friday,
with warmer, though cooler than normal, air moving back in for
the weekend into early next week.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 439 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017

Two primary locations for convection through the early evening
hours. The first area developed mid afternoon along a pre frontal
trough over eastern Wisconsin and continues to pass over the Door
Peninsula area and adjacent water late this afternoon. Next band
associated with the cold front working into north central
Wisconsin late this afternoon. Anticipate convection to gradually
diminish this evening with loss of daytime heating but convection
will still linger at least through the early evening hours as low
level instability will still be available with surface dewpoints
in the 60s. Otherwise between bands of convection, VFR conditions
should dominate this evening. Patchy MVFR fog is possible later
tonight. Low level surface dewpoints remain in the lower 60s to
possibly produce more isolated storms Wednesday afternoon.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....Kallas
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
248 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-022000-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
248 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the entire area. A
few strong thunderstorms with small hail and gusty winds are
possible, but organized severe weather is not anticipated at this
time. Heavy rainfall appears to be the main threat which could
create ponding on area roadways.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

There is a chance of thunderstorms from Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday night. Locally heavy rainfall is possible. There
is a marginal risk of severe storms late Thursday into Thursday
evening, generally south of a line from Berlin to Manitowoc.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report hail, wind gusts over 40 mph and
rainfall amounts over one inch to the National Weather Service in
Green Bay.

LMZ521-522-541>543-022000-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
248 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected. Any storms would pose a
hazard to mariners.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

There is a chance of thunderstorms again late Wednesday night
through Thursday night.

A period of conditions hazardous for small craft is likely
Thursday into Friday. Gale force gusts are possible late Thursday
night into Friday.

AK/MG

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