Special Weather Statement, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
359 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

Warm and humid with several more rounds of thunderstorms the next
few days, then drier and less humid for the latter part of the
work week.

The large scale pattern across the CONUS is dominated by a trough
in the west and ridge around 75W. The western trough will dig a
little more, then become progressive, lifting out into south-
central Canada by the latter part of the work week.

Warm and humid conditions are expected the next few days, though
temperatures could be held back at times by clouds and
thunderstorms. A return to more seasonable humidities is expected
by the end of the work week, with a little cooler temperatures by
next weekend. Precipitation amounts for the period are likely to
be well above normal, and possibly excessive.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

WW313 will expire at 400 pm, but the severe weather threat has not
ended. Low level SSW flow will continue to feed moist unstable
air into the forecast area. Storms have redeveloped in northwest
Wisconsin, and trail back to the west. Those storms are expected
to eventually organize and push southeast. The potential certainly
exists for additional severe weather with the storms. In
addition, given the rain that fell earlier today and the W-E
orientation of the line, heavy rainfall and flooding are also a
concern.

The boundary will still be lingering across the area Monday. So
the marginal risk of severe weather specified in the SWODY2
outlook seems reasonable.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

Shortwave ridging will sharpen across the area Tuesday, to that
looks like a relative min in the thunderstorm chances/coverage.
Another more significant round of storms is likely again Wednesday
as the main upper trough advances in from the west. Quieter
weather will return for the rest of the week as the upper flow
tilts WNW behind the trough.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

Thunderstorms will be the main aviation weather concern during the
period. The specifics of the redevelopment behind the initial
complex of storms is still unclear. Winds above the surface are
strong enough to carry LLWS in the TAFS into tonight.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....Skowronski
LONG TERM......Skowronski
AVIATION.......Skowronski

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
340 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-121100-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
340 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible this evening and overnight. Some of the
storms could be severe, and produce damaging winds and large hail.
Torrential rains and flooding are also possible. The greatest risk
of flooding will be across north-central and far northeast
Wisconsin, which received the most rainfall from the round of
storms that moved through during the mid-day hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

Additional periods of thunderstorms will occur from Monday
through Wednesday night. It is difficult to pinpoint the specific
timing and impacts of these storms, but it appears that a severe
weather threat could develop on both Monday and Wednesday
afternoon and evenings.

The combination of very warm temperatures and humid air on Monday
through Wednesday could result in conditions that are hazardous
to people in poor health. The worst conditions are expected to
occur during the afternoon hours and be in central and east-
central Wisconsin.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Formal spotter activation probably will not be needed this evening
or overnight. But spotters are requested to report and winds over
50 mph, hail over 1/2 inch in diameter, or any flooding.

LMZ521-522-541>543-121100-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
340 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms and patchy fog will pose a hazard to boaters
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

Periods of thunderstorms are likely to occur from Monday through
Wednesday night. The storms may pose a hazard to mariners.

Dense fog will also be possible at times through Wednesday as a
humid airmass settles across the region.

Skowronski

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
416 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SE GLEASON            45.26N 89.44W
06/11/2017                   LINCOLN            WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            15-20 FOOT SECTION OF BARN ROOF BLOWN OFF 400-500 YARDS
            INTO THE FIELD. DEBRIS APPEARS TO BE BLOWN IN ONE
            DIRECTION. ADDITIONAL BARN DESTROYED 1/2 MILE AWAY.

&&

BERSCH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
417 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

WIZ010-011-019-112200-
Langlade WI-Oneida WI-Forest WI-
417 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO FOREST COUNTY...

At 416 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles west of Crandon, moving east at 50 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Crandon around 435 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Post Lake, Blackwell,
Pelican Lake, Nashville, Mole Lake, Laona, Argonne, Lennox, Wabeno
and Cavour.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4541 8925 4561 8919 4572 8857 4543 8848
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 260DEG 37KT 4551 8913

Eckberg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
424 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

WIZ005-010-112245-
Vilas WI-Oneida WI-
424 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN VILAS AND NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 423 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Squirrel Lake, or 17 miles southeast of Turtle Flambeau Flowage,
moving east at 50 mph.

Pea size hail, winds in excess of 40 mph and torrential rainfall
will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Lac Du Flambeau around 430 PM CDT.
  Eagle River around 505 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Arbor Vitae, Sayner,
Anvil Lake Campground, Trout Lake, Hazelhurst, Star Lake, Woodruff,
St Germain, Conover and Minocqua.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4595 8905 4588 8905 4572 9004 4598 9004
      4598 8993 4600 8993 4612 8911
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 254DEG 44KT 4585 9000

Eckberg