Small Craft Advisory 7, NWS Green Bay, WI

779 
WHUS73 KGRB 301040
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
440 AM CST MON JAN 30 2017

...GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THIS EVENING...

.AN APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES BY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS AND
WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT.

LMZ541>543-301800-
/O.EXT.KGRB.SC.Y.0007.170131T0000Z-170131T1000Z/
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
440 AM CST MON JAN 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 AM CST TUESDAY...

* SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS THIS EVENING...THEN
  BACK EAST AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT.

* WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET THIS EVENING THEN SUBSIDE TO 2
  TO 4 FEET LATE TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
TSK

572 
WHUS73 KGRB 301529
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
929 AM CST MON JAN 30 2017

...GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THIS EVENING...

.AN APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES BY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS AND
WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT.

LMZ541>543-302330-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0007.170131T0000Z-170131T1000Z/
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
929 AM CST MON JAN 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY...

* SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS THIS EVENING...THEN 
  BACK EAST AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT. 

* WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET THIS EVENING THEN SUBSIDE TO 2 
  TO 4 FEET LATE TONIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

626 
WHUS73 KGRB 302138
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
338 PM CST MON JAN 30 2017

...GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE WAVES TONIGHT...

.AN APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS
AND HIGH WAVES TONIGHT. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY 
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS THE CLIPPER EXITS THE REGION.

LMZ541>543-310545-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0007.170131T0000Z-170131T1000Z/
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
338 PM CST MON JAN 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CST
TUESDAY...

* SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS THIS EVENING...THEN 
  BACK EAST AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT. 

* WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET THIS EVENING SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET
  OVERNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

BERSCH

217 
WHUS73 KGRB 310327
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
927 PM CST MON JAN 30 2017

...GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE WAVES SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT...

.GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS 
A CLIPPER EXITS THE REGION.

LMZ541>543-311000-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-170131T1000Z/
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
927 PM CST MON JAN 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CST
TUESDAY...

* SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS...BACKING EAST AND DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 
  15 KTS OVERNIGHT. 

* WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

BERSCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
836 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2017

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
and new information added to update section

.UPDATE...
Issued at 833 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2017

No changes to winter weather headlines this evening. The 00Z NAM
has finally come into line with the ECMWF/GFS in depicting a more
southerly track of the strong shortwave and associated cyclone
crossing the region tomorrow. Hunch right now is that advisory
start times are a bit early, but confidence in that is not high
enough to adjust with at this point.

Also believe we will eventually need to add another tier of
counties along the northeast edge of the advisory (at least
Oconto/Door, and possibly Forest). The heavier snows could linger
a little longer along the lakeshore--especially in Door and
Kewaunee counties as it appears an inverted trough is likely to
set up near the lakeshore tomorrow night as the surface low
slides by just to the south of the forecast area. There is still a
lot of snow shower activity over the lake now, and temperatures
tomorrow will support at least lake enhancement and possibly even
a true lake-effect band.

As far as snow totals go, this system has quite a bit going for
it. The upper support looks very impressive on water vapor
satellite imagery this evening as it plows across British Columbia
and into Alberta. Temperatures will favor fairly high snow-to-
water ratios, and the available moisture working east in advance
of the cyclone is fairly robust for a northwest flow system. In
addition, the cold pocket that dropped south into the area behind
the shortwave that crossed our area during the past 12-18 hours
will leave behind a fairly strong baroclinic zone with which to
generate isentropic lift. Given these factors, snowfall totals
may need to be edged up, especially along the axis of maximum
snowfall. However, there is concern that the axis of maximum
snowfall will be fairly narrow, so the increase will need to be
targeted, and will defer to the next shift which will have the
benefit of the entire 00Z guidance suite including the ECMWF,
which has been the most consisent model in handling this system.

Updated product suite will be out ASAP.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 225 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2017

The latest rap analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a surface
ridge axis shifting east over the northern Plains.  But cyclonic
northwest flow continues unabated over the western Great Lakes,
which is contributing to widespread clouds, snow showers and
flurries. Clearing has been inching eastward into western Wisconsin
early this afternoon, but flow off Lake Superior has slowed this
progression down somewhat.  Visibilities in the snow belt of Vilas
county have improved this afternoon and have already dropped the
winter weather advisory. Did receive a report of 3 inches at Land O
Lakes.  The next clipper is looking rather impressive over British
Columbia.  Forecast concerns include clouds and snow shower trends
tonight, followed by potential accumulations on Monday.

Tonight...Cyclonic flow will continue through the evening, with
northwest flow off Lake Superior.  Despite clearing taking place
upstream over western Wisconsin, think clouds will hang on a little
longer than anticipated, so increased cloud cover for the evening.
Some flurries may also linger over eastern WI as well. But the
general trend will call for decreasing clouds, especially mid to
late evening through the overnight as a weak surface ridge axis
arrives, causing winds to back to the west.  Temps are rather
difficult to project due to the potential for clearing and light
winds for a few hours late tonight.  Stuck mostly with the previous
forecast, though some of the cold spots of n-c WI could be several
degrees colder than forecast if the clouds erode faster than
expected.

Monday...Clouds will on the increase once again ahead of a fast
moving clipper system which is expected to drop southeast into the
northern Mississippi Valley by the end of the afternoon.  Followed
the southern solutions of the ecwmf/gfs/wrf-arw for the track of the
surface low based on model comparisons.  An area of light to
moderate snow will be spreading southeast into central and north-
central Wisconsin by late morning into early afternoon as mid-level
thetae advection and fgen arrive ahead of the clipper.  This forcing
in conjunction with arrival of a potent vort will then push the
snowfall into eastern WI by around mid-afternoon.  This snowfall
should be of lighter/drier variety due to snow ratios between 15-17
to 1.  By the start of the evening commute, 1 to 3 inches of
accumulations will be possible from east-central to north-central
WI, which will create slippery and snow-covered roads.  With
coordination from offices to the west, will hoist a winter weather
advisory starting around midday over north-central WI and mid-
afternoon over eastern WI.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 225 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2017

The primary isent lift region ahead of a clipper system will
shift over northeast Wisconsin by early Monday evening before
sliding east of the area. Progs still not quite in agreement with
the track and timing of various parameters with this system. The
NAM continues to track the surface low along the Wisconsin and
Upper Michigan border, while the GFS tracks the surface low much
further south, reaching the Fox Cities Monday midnight. The 12z
ECMWF is similar to the GFS run. Focusing at the 700 mb level and
the primary snow growth region shows the mid level trough for the
nam is slower early Monday evening but then catches up with the
GFS and ECMWF solution by Monday midnight.

Primary period of accumulating snow expected through Monday
evening as the mid level trough passes through. Snow is expected
to taper off later Monday night into Tuesday, however upper jet
location is indicating additional brief periods of lighter snow
accumulation through at least Tuesday. Continued height falls
into Tuesday evening hinting on subtle short waves with possible
upper jet let support. Will lean with the higher end GFS chc pops
for Tuesday.

Lake effect snows will linger into Wednesday across the far north,
otherwise a quiet drier and colder period for the rest of the
work week.

Another chance for snow possible the later half of next weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 833 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2017

Scattered SHSN have tapered to flurries. Ceilings were generally
VFR, and clouds were decreasing from the west. Expect generally
good flight conditions for the next 15-18 hours, then conditions
will deteriorate rapidly as a band of snow moves in from the
west. Anticipate flight conditions quickly lowering to IFR as the
band settles over the region tomorrow afternoon, with the poor
conditions lingering into the evening.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Monday to 4 AM CST Tuesday for
WIZ020-031-037>040-048>050.

Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM to 10 PM CST Monday for
WIZ005-010-018-019-030-035-036-045.
&&

UPDATE.........Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......Skowronski

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
155 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2017

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-302000-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-LINCOLN-
LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-
WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-
CALUMET-MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-
155 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH. UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL REMAIN SLIPPERY DUE TO
THE RECENT SNOWFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD RECEIVE
3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. THE PERIOD OF GREATEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY
OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING INCLUDING THE AFTERNOON
COMMUTE.

COLDER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS CLIPPER MAY
ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER FAR
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS IN VILAS COUNTY ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD SNOWFALL
MEASUREMENTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY.

LMZ521-522-541>543-302000-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
155 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

MPC/TDH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
429 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     SNOW             TWO RIVERS              44.15N 87.56W
01/29/2017  M1.5 INCH        MANITOWOC          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
434 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2017

WIZ022-039-040-050-300000-
Door-Brown-Kewaunee-Manitowoc-
434 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2017

...SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

Scattered snow showers were moving through east-central Wisconsin
late this afternoon. The snow showers were mostly light, and just
producing a dusting of snow at most locations. But a cluster of
heavier snow showers was moving through Manitowoc county. A few
locations in Manitowoc county, especially in the eastern and
southern part of the county, could receive a quick inch or two of
fluffy snow from the snow showers. This may lead to locally
hazardous travel conditions.

Anyone traveling across east-central Wisconsin late this afternoon
or early this evening should be prepared for the possibility of
encountering localized low visibilities in the snow showers, and
scattered slippery spots on the roads.

Skowronski

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
600 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2017

WIZ022-039-040-050-300130-
Door-Brown-Kewaunee-Manitowoc-
600 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2017

...SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

Scattered snow showers were moving through east-central Wisconsin
early this evening. The snow showers were mostly light, and just
producing a dusting of snow at most locations. But some heavier
snow showers continued to affect the Lakeshore and especially
Manitowoc county. Some locations in Manitowoc county will receive
1 to 3 inches of snow by the time the snow showers end in an hour
or two. This will lead to locally hazardous travel conditions.

Anyone traveling across east-central Wisconsin this evening should
be prepared for the possibility of encountering localized low
visibilities in the snow showers, and slippery spots on the
roads. Use extra caution if you are traveling this evening.

Skowronski