Small Craft Advisory 68, NWS Green Bay, WI

660 
WHUS73 KGRB 200226
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
926 PM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017

LMZ541>543-201030-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0068.170920T1800Z-170921T0300Z/
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
926 PM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS 
  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 

* WAVES...BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.  INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HYKIN

009 
WHUS73 KGRB 200909
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
409 AM CDT WED SEP 20 2017

LMZ541>543-201715-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0068.170920T1800Z-170921T0300Z/
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
409 AM CDT WED SEP 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS 
  AFTERNOON. 

* WAVES...BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.  INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

706 
WHUS73 KGRB 201447
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
947 AM CDT WED SEP 20 2017

LMZ541>543-202300-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0068.170920T1800Z-170921T0300Z/
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
947 AM CDT WED SEP 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS 
  AFTERNOON. 

* WAVES...BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.  INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

856 
WHUS73 KGRB 201914
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
214 PM CDT WED SEP 20 2017

LMZ521-522-210300-
/O.EXA.KGRB.SC.Y.0068.000000T0000Z-170921T0300Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
214 PM CDT WED SEP 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING. 

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 

* WAVES...1 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.  INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ541>543-210300-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0068.000000T0000Z-170921T0300Z/
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
214 PM CDT WED SEP 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 

* WAVES...BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.  INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

MPC

565 
WHUS73 KGRB 202034
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
334 PM CDT WED SEP 20 2017

LMZ521-522-541>543-210300-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0068.000000T0000Z-170921T0300Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
334 PM CDT WED SEP 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS VEERING
  SOUTH.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE BAY
  THROUGH THIS EVENING, SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FEET OVERNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.  INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

BERSCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
316 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

A frontal boundary across the plains, combined with short wave
energy in amplifying mid level flow and the right entrance region
of an upper level jet will bring thunderstorms to the area mainly
Wednesday into the early part of the extended forecast. There
could be some showers and/or storms tonight, toward daybreak,
across central and north central Wisconsin.

The timing of the front will allow the atmosphere to become quite
unstable, with MUCAPE values greater than 2,000 J/kg at some
locations ahead of the front. Looking at the 12Z NAM on Bufkit,
there were 50 kt or stronger winds around 7kft at Wausau at 19Z
when WBZ heights are forecast to be around 10kft. SPC had a
marginal risk of severe storms for much of the area and that
seemed reasonable. Would not be too surprised if they upgrade to
slight risk with subsequent issuances for 12Z Wed - 12Z Thu.

Cooler temperatures are in store for north central Wisconsin
Wednesday due to clouds, rain and the front, but the rest of the
area should be warmer than today. Much of the forecast area will
see highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

The chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue Wednesday
night as a cold front sweeps through the western Great Lakes.
There is a marginal risk for severe weather during the evening
before instability wanes quickly after sunset. After a brief
period of dry weather on Thursday, a warm front will bring the
chance for additional showers and thunderstorms on Thursday night.

High pressure will then keep most of the region dry and hot to end
the week and into the weekend as 850 mb temperatures soar to
around +20 celsius as a large dome of mid level ridging settles in
across the Great Lakes. Daytime highs on Friday and Saturday will
rise into the middle to upper 80s, with 90 degree readings
possible. These temperatures will be a good 15 to 20 degrees above
normal for this time of year. The main exception to the dry
weather could be across the far north as a low pressure system
stalls over the upper Mississippi Valley.

This slow moving low will eventually be allowed to track east
during the early part of next week as the aforementioned high
slides east. This will bring cooler temperatures and the chance
for showers and thunderstorms to the western Great Lakes Monday
and next Tuesday.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Most of the area was free of clouds at 17Z but MVFR ceilings
lingered in parts of eastern Wisconsin where light easterly winds
prevailed and dew points were mostly in the lower 60s. Visible
satellite imagery showed a decrease in the clouds over the east
so would expect VFR conditions by late afternoon or early
evening.

Models had IFR ceilings moving into central and north central
Wisconsin tonight in southeast surface flow. The rest of the area
should see some MVFR, and possibly IFR, fog overnight. Showers
will move into central and east central Wisconsin from the west
on Wednesday morning. Did not include thunder at this point, but
by later in the day there is plenty of instability ahead of an
approaching cold front so showers and thunderstorms will spread to
the east later in the afternoon.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......Kurimski
AVIATION.......MG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
243 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-200745-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
243 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance for thunderstorms late tonight over central and
north central Wisconsin. Severe storms are not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is marginal chance of severe storms Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday evening.  Large hail, gusty winds and heavy rain
would be the main threats.

Other spotty thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and
Thursday night across much of the area, and across the north
Friday night. Chances of thunderstorms return across the entire
area Sunday and may continue into Monday. It is too early to
determine if any of these storms could become severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.

LMZ521-522-541>543-200745-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
243 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon or
evening. A few of these storms could contain strong wind gusts and
large hail. There is a small chance of thunderstorms Thursday
night north of Sturgeon Bay, and then across the entire again
Sunday into Monday that may pose a hazard to mariners.

TDH/Eckberg