Small Craft Advisory 26, NWS Green Bay, WI

503 
WHUS73 KGRB 031516
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1016 AM CDT MON APR 3 2017

...BLUSTERY NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY...

.AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, GUSTY NORTHEAST TO
NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. THE 
GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE WAVES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON.

LMZ521-522-541>543-032330-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0026.170404T0300Z-170404T1800Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
1016 AM CDT MON APR 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 1 PM CDT TUESDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING.
  GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS TURNING
  NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING THEN DECREASING TUESDAY
  AFTERNOON. 

* WAVES...BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE BAY...AND 4 TO 7 FEET ON
  LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET ON THE
  BAY AND TO 2 TO 4 FEET ON LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
  NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.  INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

BERSCH

320 
WHUS73 KGRB 032046
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
346 PM CDT MON APR 3 2017

...BLUSTERY NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY...

.AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, GUSTY NORTHEAST TO
NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. THE
GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE WAVES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

LMZ521-522-541>543-040500-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0026.170404T0300Z-170404T1800Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
346 PM CDT MON APR 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 1 PM CDT TUESDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING. 
  GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS TURNING 
  NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING THEN DECREASING TUESDAY 
  AFTERNOON. 

* WAVES...BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE BAY...AND 4 TO 7 FEET 
  ON LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET ON 
  THE BAY AND TO 2 TO 4 FEET ON LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 

* ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY 
  NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.  INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

242 
WHUS73 KGRB 040228
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
928 PM CDT MON APR 3 2017

...BLUSTERY NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

.AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, GUSTY NORTHEAST TO
NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. THE
GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE WAVES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

LMZ521-522-541>543-041030-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0026.170404T0300Z-170404T1800Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
928 PM CDT MON APR 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO
  TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS TURNING NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
  MORNING THEN DECREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 

* WAVES...BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE BAY...AND 4 TO 7 FEET 
  ON LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET ON 
  THE BAY AND TO 2 TO 4 FEET ON LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 

* ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY 
  NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.  INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

856 
WHUS73 KGRB 040908
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
408 AM CDT TUE APR 4 2017

...BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING...

.LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND HIGH WAVES THIS MORNING. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL SUBSIDE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER EAST THIS
AFTERNOON.

LMZ521-522-541>543-041715-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-170404T1800Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
408 AM CDT TUE APR 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS. 

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

* STRONG NORTH WINDS MAY GUST TO GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
  THURSDAY NIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.  INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
TSK

850 
WHUS73 KGRB 041508
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1008 AM CDT TUE APR 4 2017

...BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...

.HIGH WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN LOWER MICHIGAN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

LMZ521-522-541>543-041800-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-170404T1800Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
1008 AM CDT TUE APR 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON.

* STRONG NORTH WINDS MAY GUST TO GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
  THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.  INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
341 AM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Tuesday
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017

Precipitation trends and amounts the primary issue today into
Tuesday morning.

Area radars early this morning show isolated showers or sprinkles
across the state as forcing is limited to weak warm air return
across the area for starters.  A cold front over the northern
plains early this morning will slide into the state today while a
low pressure region centered over far southwest Missouri early
this morning will track northeast. Progs 24 hours ago tracked the
surface low over central Illinois by late today. This morning the
consensus is a little more northwest. Model QPF is projecting
more deformation type rainfall with the approaching system and
near the cold front over central Wisconsin at the onset this
morning, but eventually all will get rain as the system tracks
across the region through tonight. A LFQ region of the upper
jetlet also passes over central Wisconsin this morning before
sliding northeast.

As the surface low deepens tonight, steady rains and increasing
wind will produce rather raw conditions overnight. Cooler and drier
air working in from the north as winds turn more northerly, may
attempt to produce a light mix across the far north or far
northeast late tonight or Tuesday morning before the system
departs later Tuesday morning.

Winds will begin to relax later Tuesday as the system shifts
eastward. Drier air pouring in should aid with decreasing clouds
from north to south.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017

Split flow is still forecast to consolidate by the middle of the
week, leading to an amplified flow across the CONUS by the end of
the week. Two weather systems will affect northeast WI this week.
The first system is a strong upper trough that is forecast to
close off into an upper low during the Wednesday-Friday time
frame. Models have finally come into better agreement with
potential phasing of northern stream energy to occur to our east,
as well as the track of the surface low on a more southern track.
The second system will be a weakening upper ridge axis that is
forecast to reach WI this weekend.

The southeast fringe of Canadian high pressure is expected to
stretch across northern sections of the Great Lakes Tuesday night.
While partly cloudy skies should suffice through the night,
attention will be focused over the Mid-MS Valley where the last of
these southern stream systems to be situated. Models pretty much
keep any precipitation well to our south, but this precipitation
will be approaching the WI/IL border by daybreak. Min temperatures
to range from the upper 20s to around 30 degrees north, mainly
middle 30s south.

The system is progged to track northeast toward southern sections
of the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Model run-to-run consistency had
been poor overall, but now there is a definite trend to a more
southern track. What does that mean for northeast WI? If this
solution holds true, the heavier QPF would stay to our south and
east with the northern edge of the main precipitation shield
reaching east-central WI. Northern and most of central WI would
now see no precipitation at all. The problem here would be
precipitation type as a southern track would allow for colder air
to settle farther south and bring a wintry mix of rain and snow to
east-central WI. The NAM is the only model now that is a bit
farther north and brings accumulating snow Wednesday afternoon,
while the GFS, CMC and ECMWF pretty much keeps much of the
precipitation to our south and east. Have kept any precipitation
type as all rain during the daylight hours with surface
temperatures reaching at least the lower to middle 40s.

The deepening surface low will continue moving northeast toward
southeast Lower MI Wednesday night. Depending on how the back edge
of the precipitation shield pivots, east-central WI could see
precipitation chances linger into at least Wednesday evening.
Temperatures by this time would cool enough to all for mixed
precipitation to transition to snow with a minor accumulation
possible. The rest of northeast WI would remain mostly cloudy with
increasing north winds. Min temperatures will drop into the upper
20s to around 30 degrees north-central, lower to middle 30s south.
Clouds will likely linger over eastern WI into Thursday morning
due to a weakening cyclonic flow from the departed system.
Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure is expected to move into the
Upper MS Valley and begin to advect drier air into WI. Central WI
should see some afternoon sun intermix with the clouds. Max
temperatures will remain cool (north winds) with readings in the
lower 40s north/east, middle 40s central WI.

This surface ridge axis will slide into the western Great Lakes on
Friday, bringing abundant sunshine and the start of a nice warm-
up. Max temperatures for Friday will range from the lower 40s near
Lake MI (still a north wind), but be around 50 degrees across
central/north-central WI.

As the surface ridge slips to our east on Saturday, return flow
develops over WI and WAA sets up over the region. The weakening
upper ridge also arrives over the east-central CONUS on Saturday,
thus anticipate another mostly sunny day with max temperatures
around 50 degrees along Lake MI, upper 50s over central/north-
central WI. Once this upper ridge shifts to our east toward the
latter half of the weekend, a southwest flow aloft will take over
the central CONUS into the Great Lakes. Stronger WAA, coupled with
weak shortwave energy within this southwest flow and the approach
of a cold front, could bring the next chance of showers into the
forecast for Sunday. Would not be surprised if there is a little
thunder as well as mid-level lapse rates steepen during the day.
Max temperatures would continue to warm with readings in the
middle 50s near Lake MI, lower to middle 60s over central WI.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

Clouds will continue to lower with a period of relatively quiet
weather expected early this morning. Rain is expected to redevelop
over the taf sites later Monday morning as a low pressure system
passes to our south. Conditions are expected to lower to MVFR/IFR
with these rain showers. The best potential for dense fog will be
in the far east as higher dewpoints arrive over the cold waters
of Lake Michigan.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......Kallas
AVIATION.......Kurimski

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
248 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-031100-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
248 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

Hazardous travel conditions could develop mid-week as a strong
storm system tracks through the region. The exact track of the
system remains uncertain, but the potential exists for it to
produce at least a slushy accumulation of snow to roads Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. Be sure to closely monitor later
forecasts if you have travel plans anytime during the period from
Wednesday night through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

LMZ521-522-541>543-031100-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
248 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

A period of gusty north winds could result in conditions
hazardous to small craft late night into Tuesday.

A period of north to northeast gales is possible late Wednesday
night into early Friday.

Skowronski