Gale Watch 2, NWS Green Bay, WI

355 
WHUS73 KGRB 230248
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
848 PM CST WED FEB 22 2017

...DENSE FOG OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING, STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.A MOIST AIRMASS FLOWING OVER THE COLD WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THEN, AS A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WESTERN 
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AND APPROACH GALE FORCE AT TIMES.

LMZ541>543-231100-
/O.EXT.KGRB.MF.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-170223T0600Z/
/O.CON.KGRB.GL.A.0002.170224T0600Z-170224T2100Z/
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
848 PM CST WED FEB 22 2017

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS VEERING NORTHWEST TONIGHT, 
THEN VEERING NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 
30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 35 KNOTS THURSDAY EVENING. 

* WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT.

* VISIBILITY...WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE MILE. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED, BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND LOCATION IS
STILL UNCERTAIN.  IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME
FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

029 
WHUS73 KGRB 231042
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
442 AM CST THU FEB 23 2017

...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...

.A DEVELOPING AND STRONG WINTER STORM WILL TRACK OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST GALES ARE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 

LMZ541>543-231845-
/O.UPG.KGRB.GL.A.0002.170224T0600Z-170224T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KGRB.GL.W.0004.170224T0900Z-170225T0000Z/
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
442 AM CST THU FEB 23 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY. THE
GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY...TURNING NORTHEAST THIS
  EVENING AND INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS WITH GALE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
  LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

* WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS OR GREATER ARE
EXPECTED.  OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS.  IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1204 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Thursday
Issued at 327 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Height 850 warm air advection producing mainly mid level clouds
across the region early this morning with isolated showers across
northern Wisconsin. Primary forecast issue today will be max
temperatures with respect to the amount of clouds and light
precipitation developing over the northwest half of the state
today with the 850 front sagging southward. At least northern
wisconsin will see more clouds today for slightly cooler but still
well above normal temperatures.

To the west, isolated storms were noted over Minnesota closer to
the mid level trough axis and north of the surface low pressure
system and warm front. Will watch the minnesota convection this
morning for any southern adjustments with the showers as a weak
surface low tracks over central Wisconsin today. Short range progs
weaken the minnesota convection and redevelop any light rain over
northern wisconsin today into tonight with the sagging boundary.
Boundary layer temps begin to cool enough over the far north for a
mix late.

Southwest boundary layer winds were also producing enough
mixing and an offshore wind to keep dense fog, located over far
southeast Wisconsin and lower Lake Michigan near the warm front,
south of the area.

Weak ridging late tonight into Thursday morning will produce a
brief period of quiet weather, along with cooler but still above
normal temperatures. Light rain ahead of the developing system
over the Plains will begin to approach parts of central Wisconsin
later Thursday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 327 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

The main concern during the early part of the forecast is with a
surface low approaching from the Plains and then passing through,
or just to the south of, Wisconsin. The system will take a while
to depart, so precipitation issues linger into Saturday.

00Z models were a bit more consistent than that were 24 hours
prior, but minor differences in the path of the system could
result in significantly different precipitation types and amounts.
Indications are that the heaviest snowfall will be across the
northwest part of the forecast area where 8 to 10 inches of snow
could fall over the course of about 36+ hours. Snow totals are
expected to be lower farther south and east, with some rain and/or
freezing rain keeping totals down there. Have decided not to go
with any headlines at this point since there are still questions
regarding the exact path of the system and the snowfall totals
stretch over a few forecast periods. If models take the system
even farther north the snow totals in north central Wisconsin
should be lower.

Colder air behind the system will result in high temperatures a
few degrees below normal over the weekend, with a slight warming
trend for the early part of the new work week. Some lake effect
snow showers are possible in the north into Sunday. The next
system approaching the area will bring snow and/or rain for
Monday night and Tuesday.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1203 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

VFR conditions will persist across the area this afternoon with
mid and upper level clouds spreading across the area. Then look
for ceilings to lower from north to south as a cold front sags
across the area this evening into tonight. Rain showers are also
expected over northern WI (KRHI) tonight, mixing with snow
overnight, with only a few sprinkles or light rain showers
possible farther south, but some drier air is in place so the
activity is expected to be less widespread than across northern
WI. The lower cigs (mainly mvfr) will continue into Thursday
morning with some improvement by late morning or early afternoon.
Some mvfr fog is also expected across the area tonight.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 327 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Glance of area rivers over Central Wisconsin were near crest and
should begin falling later this morning. Although fluctations
downstream of hydro plants will continue. Another Storm system
with water equivalent of up to an inch of precipitation over 2
days approaching the region late this week. This will produce more
run off for the rivers, depending on precipitation type.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......Bersch
HYDROLOGY......TDH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
414 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-231200-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
414 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Runoff from snow melt and a recent rain will continue to
produce minor flooding along some rivers over central Wisconsin,
and slowly rising rivers over north central Wisconsin and
far northeast Wisconsin. These conditions will continue to
produce ice breakup or make ice conditions unstable on area
rivers, lakes, and reservoirs. Monitor local ice conditions and
consider securing and protecting equipment, and removing ice
shacks. Colder but closer to normal temperatures will be arriving
later this week.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A strong low pressure system will bring wintry precipitation to
the area from Thursday night through Saturday. This system has the
potential to bring several inches of accumulating snow to north-
central and northeast Wisconsin. The best chance for heavy snow
appears to be north of a line from Wausaukee to Marshfield. Areas
south of this line have an increased chance for a wintry mix of
snow, sleet, and freezing rain. The exact track of the low will
determine where the swath of heavy snow will end up falling,
therefore future forecasts should be closely monitored.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.

LMZ521-522-541>543-231200-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
414 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The continued warm temperatures may make ice conditions unstable
on the Bay of Green Bay. All interests should closely monitor
local ice conditions in the coming days, and consider securing and
protecting equipment. Colder but closer to normal temperatures
will be arriving later this week.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There is a chance of gale force gusts with the passage of a
strong cyclone on Thursday night through Saturday.

TDH/MG