Gale Warning 10, NWS Green Bay, WI

354 
WHUS73 KGRB 040231
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
931 PM CDT THU AUG 3 2017

...HIGH WAVES EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS
TONIGHT...

.INCREASING WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER WAVES THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY,
ALONG WITH STRONGER GUSTS. GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST 
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.

LMZ521-541-041045-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0056.000000T0000Z-170804T2100Z/
/O.CON.KGRB.GL.W.0010.170804T2100Z-170805T0600Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
931 PM CDT THU AUG 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS 
  FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 

* WAVES... BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET, THEN 4 TO 7 FEET FRIDAY 
  AFTERNOON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.  INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS OR GREATER ARE
EXPECTED.  OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS.  IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ522-542-543-041045-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0056.000000T0000Z-170805T0600Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
931 PM CDT THU AUG 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS WITH 
  SOME HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 35 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 

* WAVES... BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.  INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

615 
WHUS73 KGRB 040845
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
345 AM CDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...GALE FORCE WINDS SURROUNDING DOOR COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

.INCREASING WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL 
BRING HIGH WAVES TO THE NEARSHORE AND BAY WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS AS HIGH AS GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED AROUND DOOR
COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
EASE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. 

LMZ521-541-041645-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0056.000000T0000Z-170804T2100Z/
/O.CON.KGRB.GL.W.0010.170804T2100Z-170805T0600Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
345 AM CDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 AM CDT SATURDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
  

* WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET, BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.  INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS OR GREATER ARE
EXPECTED.  OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS.  IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ522-542-543-041645-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0056.000000T0000Z-170805T0600Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
345 AM CDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING 
  TO 30 KNOTS.
  

* WAVES...BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.  INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

KURIMSKI

181 
WHUS73 KGRB 041357
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
857 AM CDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...GALE FORCE WINDS SURROUNDING DOOR COUNTY INTO TONIGHT...

.STRONG WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING 
HIGH WAVES TO THE NEARSHORE AND BAY WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL EASE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

LMZ521-541-042200-
/O.CAN.KGRB.SC.Y.0056.000000T0000Z-170804T2100Z/
/O.EXT.KGRB.GL.W.0010.170804T1357Z-170805T0800Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
857 AM CDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

* WINDS...NORTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS. GALE FORCE GUSTS TO AROUND 40
  KNOTS.

* WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET, BUILDING TO 3 TO 6 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
  HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE AROUND DEATHS DOOR AND TOWARD THE OPEN 
  WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS OR GREATER ARE
EXPECTED.  OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS.  IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ522-042200-
/O.UPG.KGRB.SC.Y.0056.000000T0000Z-170805T0600Z/
/O.EXB.KGRB.GL.W.0010.170804T1357Z-170805T0800Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
857 AM CDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING, WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CDT SATURDAY. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WINDS...NORTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS. GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS.
  
* WAVES...BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS OR GREATER ARE
EXPECTED.  OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS.  IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ542-543-042200-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0056.000000T0000Z-170805T0600Z/
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
857 AM CDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING 
  TO 30 KNOTS. 

* WAVES...BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.  INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

BERSCH

270 
WHUS73 KGRB 042034
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
334 PM CDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...GALE FORCE WINDS SURROUNDING DOOR COUNTY INTO TONIGHT...

.STRONG WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
HIGH WAVES TO THE NEARSHORE AND BAY WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
AND WAVES WILL EASE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

LMZ521-522-541-050445-
/O.CON.KGRB.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-170805T0800Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
334 PM CDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CDT SATURDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS. GALE FORCE GUSTS TO AROUND 40
  KNOTS EARLY. WINDS EASING AND BACKING WEST 15 TO 20 KTS LATE.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET. HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE AROUND DEATHS DOOR 
  AND TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS OR GREATER ARE
EXPECTED.  OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS.  IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ542-543-050445-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0056.000000T0000Z-170805T0600Z/
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
334 PM CDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS, EASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS LATE. 
 
* WAVES...SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.  INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

721 
WHUS73 KGRB 050226
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
926 PM CDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS DOOR COUNTY...

LMZ521-541-051030-
/O.CAN.KGRB.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-170805T0800Z/
/O.NEW.KGRB.SC.Y.0057.170805T0226Z-170805T1400Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
926 PM CDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY. THE
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KTS
  EARLY. WINDS WILL EASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. 

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET...SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.  INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ522-050330-
/O.CAN.KGRB.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-170805T0800Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
926 PM CDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS CANCELLED THE GALE
WARNING. 

$$

LMZ542-543-050330-
/O.CAN.KGRB.SC.Y.0056.000000T0000Z-170805T0600Z/
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
926 PM CDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 



$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1115 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance
and new information added to update section

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1042 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017

A complex forecast situation exists today as a strong mid-summer
cyclone deepens east across the state. Bands of showers and
thunderstorms have been affecting the area. One band is currently
over eastern Wisconsin, with another back along the Mississippi
River. Another appears to be forming between the two. The main
hazard posed by the storms thus far has been heavy rain and
localized ponding of water on roads. Expect more of that during
the rest of the morning and into the afternoon as the showers and
storms continue.

The risk for severe storms is much more unclear. Having a cyclone
of this one's magnitude track across the area mid-summer
quickly puts one on notice. The dynamics and wind fields with the
system certainly would significantly enhance the severe risk with
any discrete storms that can develop. The element in question is
buoyancy. Local meso plots indicate MUCAPES have been holding at
about 500-750j/kg across the southern part of the forecast area,
and that may be an overestimate give the overturning with the band
of storms now over east-central Wisconsin. Given the additional
bands to the west, there does not appear to be much opportunity to
destabilize until the second band clears the area. That may leave
a small window of opportunity behind that band and before the
cold or occluded front sweeps through during the late afternoon
and early evening. The best estimate is that the severe risk would
be from about 21Z-03Z. HRRR runs has gone back and forth on
showing strong cells crossing the southern part of the forecast
area late today, so guidance is struggling with the situation as
well. Suspect we'd need at least a couple hour break in the
precipitation behind the line that is currently near the
Mississippi River now and any subsequent development to generate a
substantial severe threat. Will obviously continue to closely
monitor.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Friday
Issued at 244 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue across central
and northeast Wisconsin early this morning associated with weak
isentropic lift ahead of an approaching low pressure system across
the upper Mississippi Valley region.

As the slow moving low moves through the western Great Lakes today
and tonight it will bring several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms to the area. Upstream radar observations indicate
that its not a matter of if it will rain, rather how much will
fall and and will it be severe. The area appears poised to receive
a widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain given the moisture and potent
dynamics associated with the system. Locally higher amounts are
possible given the nature of thunderstorms, with localized
flooding possible from torrential rains in stronger thunderstorms.

The other concern is severe potential given the high amount of
shear available with bulk shear values of 40 to 50 knots. The main
factor in question is the amount of instability that will be
available across the area. The models suggest MUCAPEs could be as
high as 1-2 J/g during the afternoon and evening hours. Closer
inspection of the CAPE indicates it will be very long and skinny,
which would make it tough for severe weather. In addition the
amount of MUCAPE the models are suggesting may be a bit high given
the expansive cloud cover currently in place and the amount of
cloud cover upstream. There aren't significant breaks in the
clouds to suggest the atmosphere will be able to realize that much
instability this afternoon. Therefore while the potential for
damaging winds is certainly possible given the shear values, there
are certainly a lot of factors going against the severe potential
across the cwa this afternoon and this evening.

Showers will slowly end from west to east on Friday as the low
moves away from the western Great Lakes. In its wake much cooler
temperatures are on tap as highs are limited to the 60s. In
addition a tight pressure gradient will bring gusty north to
northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph, particularly across northeast
Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 244 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017

Focus of this forecast revolves around precip chances this weekend
and will lean on the ecmwf for the details.  For later periods,
models diverge significantly by the middle of next week, when the
next system is due to arrive.  Will therefore let the multi-model
blend populate the forecast for next week.

Friday night through Saturday night...A few showers may linger over
far northeast WI early in the evening.  Otherwise, should see
clearing skies from west to east with breezy northwest winds
diminishing during the evening.  Then a weak shortwave will bring in
more clouds for Saturday.  With daytime heating, surface based capes
between 500-1000 j/kg appear possible during the afternoon, which
could result in isolated to scattered showers and storms developing.
These should dissipate with loss of heating on Saturday evening,
leaving scattered clouds for the rest of the night. Temperatures
will be comfortable over this period, and slightly below normal.

Rest of the forecast...More showers and storms are possible on
Sunday into Sunday evening when a more vigorous shortwave trough
arrives from the northwest.  Coverage should be greater than on
Saturday due to stronger forcing and slightly higher instability,
though severe weather is not expected.  A few showers could also pop
on Monday afternoon over northern WI with flattened upper troughing
lingering overhead.  Then will be looking at a the next
shortwave/cold front arriving around midweek.  Temperatures will
remain slightly below normal over the period.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1042 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017

The overall trend will be for low ceilings to settle in across the
northwest half of the forecast area as the cyclone crosses the
region. The southeast may see some improvement in the dry slot of
the system, but will likely have low ceilings return again later
tonight. The specifics will be issuance time decisions.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE.........Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......Skowronski

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1241 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-041100-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
1241 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue through this
evening over central and east-central Wisconsin. Some of the
storms will generate heavy rainfall, which may lead to localized
flooding.

The possibility still exists for a few severe storms to develop
during the late afternoon and early evening hours. In order for
that to occur, there will need to be a substantial break in the
showers and storms currently moving through the area, and it is
highly uncertain whether or not this will happen. The risk for
severe storms, if it develops, will be mainly between 300 pm and
900 pm, and be located south of a line from Wisconsin Rapids to
Green Bay to Kewaunee. The primary risk will be of isolated wind
gusts to 60 mph and hail to 1 inch in diameter.

Meanwhile, a more persistent rainfall with some embedded
thunderstorms is expected farther to the north and west, across
north-central and far northeast Wisconsin. Heavy rainfall totals
and some localized flooding are possible in this area as well.

In addition, the rainfall may result in some streams and rivers
rising to near bankfull during the weekend.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Rainfall totals from today and this evening may result in some
streams and rivers rising to near bankfull during the weekend.

The chance of thunderstorms will continue at times through early
next week. The weather pattern does not appear favorable for
severe weather during this period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon into early
this evening over portions of central and east-central Wisconsin.

LMZ521-522-541>543-041100-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
1241 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms through this evening will pose a hazard
to boaters on the Lake and Bay.

Gusty winds and large waves that are hazardous to small craft are
likely on the Lake tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Gusty northwest winds will generate conditions that are hazardous
to small craft on the Bay and Lake on Friday afternoon and Friday
night. Some gale force gusts are possible in the vicinity of the
northern Door Peninsula.

The chance of thunderstorms will continue at times through early
next week.

Skowronski

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1002 AM CDT THU AUG 3 2017

WIZ031-037>040-048>050-074-031600-
Calumet-Southern Oconto
County-Waupaca-Shawano-Kewaunee-Outagamie-Winnebago-Manitowoc-Brown-
1002 AM CDT THU AUG 3 2017

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH AFFECT PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING...

At 958 AM CDT, radar indicated thunderstorms along a line from near
Shawano to Appleton to Oshkosh. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.
Heavy rainfall with some of the storms and may result in poor
visibility and cause localized flooding, especially in urban areas.
Use extra caution if driving in these areas. Do not drive your
vehicle through flooded roadways.

Locations impacted include...
Green Bay, Appleton, Oshkosh, Manitowoc, Kewaunee, Bay Shore Park,
Kaukauna and Little Chute.

LAT...LON 4390 8876 4412 8876 4484 8904 4478 8803
      4475 8789 4471 8792 4463 8793 4472 8777
      4471 8772 4468 8774 4468 8759 4463 8740
      4432 8748 4418 8745 4407 8759 4390 8769
      4389 8816 4394 8816 4394 8840 4389 8840
TIME...MOT...LOC 1458Z 238DEG 14KT 4492 8895 4470 8881 4411 8852 4391
8833

Skowronski

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1058 AM CDT THU AUG 3 2017

WIZ020-022-031-038>040-048>050-074-031700-
Calumet-Southern Oconto
County-Shawano-Kewaunee-Outagamie-Winnebago-Manitowoc-Door-Brown-
Menominee-
1058 AM CDT THU AUG 3 2017

...THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

At 1053 AM CDT, radar indicated thunderstorms along a line from near
Gillett to Green Bay to Chilton. Movement was east at 30 mph. Heavy
rainfall with some of the storms and may result in poor visibility
and cause localized flooding, especially in urban areas. Use extra
caution if driving in these areas. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

Locations impacted include...
Green Bay, Appleton, Manitowoc, Sturgeon Bay, Kewaunee, Bay Shore
Park, Kaukauna and Two Rivers.

LAT...LON 4394 8816 4394 8839 4474 8856 4503 8869
      4497 8776 4498 8757 4494 8759 4490 8777
      4471 8792 4463 8793 4469 8780 4487 8765
      4498 8743 4496 8711 4454 8741 4432 8748
      4418 8745 4407 8759 4390 8769 4389 8816
TIME...MOT...LOC 1553Z 270DEG 34KT 4498 8848 4476 8834 4417 8805 4394
8793

Skowronski

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1213 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-031830-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
1213 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...

At 1210 PM, radar indicated numerous showers and thunderstorms
over central and east-central Wisconsin. The most concentrated
area of storms extended from near Marinette to Kewaunee. Heavy
rainfall will accompany these storms as they shift of the Bay of
Green Bay and Door Peninsula during the next hour. The showers and
storms will be more scattered across the rest of central and
east-central Wisconsin. But any of the storms could produce brief
heavy rain which may result in localized flooding of low spots on
roads and parking lots.

Meanwhile across the north, the precipitation will be mainly
showers, though some embedded thunderstorms are likely in this
area as well. Overall, the rain will not fall as heavily across
the north, but rains will be more persistent in this area. That
may eventually lead to some standing water in ditches and in low
spots on the roads later this afternoon and this evening.

Skowronski

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
152 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-032100-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
152 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...

At 145 PM, radar indicated numerous showers and thunderstorms
across the entire state of Wisconsin. In general, the strongest
storms were in the southern half of the state, and were
generating heavy rainfall. Any of the storms could produce
sufficient rainfall to result in localized flooding of low spots
on roads and parking lots.

Although the storms were not as strong across the north, the rain
was more persistent in this area. That may eventually lead to
some standing water in ditches and in low spots on the roads later
this afternoon and this evening.

Skowronski