Frost Advisory 5, NWS Green Bay, WI

408 
WWUS73 KGRB 250344
NPWGRB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1044 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

WIZ005-011-012-251200-
/O.CON.KGRB.FR.Y.0005.170825T0600Z-170825T1200Z/
Vilas-Forest-Florence-
Including the cities of Eagle River, Lac Du Flambeau, Crandon, 
Aurora, Commonwealth, and Spread Eagle
1044 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY...

* Temperatures are expected to fall into the middle 30s tonight, 
  which will promote frost development. 

* Impacts...Proper precautions should be taken to prevent damage 
  to sensitive vegetation. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Frost Advisory means that frost is expected.  Sensitive outdoor
plants may be killed if left uncovered.

&&

$$

Kurimski

311 
WWUS73 KGRB 250846
NPWGRB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
346 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

WIZ005-011-012-251200-
/O.CON.KGRB.FR.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-170825T1200Z/
Vilas-Forest-Florence-
Including the cities of Eagle River, Lac Du Flambeau, Crandon, 
Aurora, Commonwealth, and Spread Eagle
346 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

* Temperatures are expected to fall into the middle 30s early this
  morning, which will promote frost development. 

* Impacts...Proper precautions should be taken to prevent damage 
  to sensitive vegetation. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Frost Advisory means that frost is expected.  Sensitive outdoor
plants may be killed if left uncovered.

&&

$$
TSK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
240 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show high
pressure stretching from northwest Ontario to the western Great
Lakes early this afternoon.  Behind a departing shortwave, diurnal
cu popped up by late morning over eastern WI aided by weak moisture
fluxes off Lake Michigan and Green Bay. Though return flow continues
over the Plains, forecast concerns revolve around temps tonight as
high pressure remains over the area.

Tonight and Friday...High pressure will be centered directly over
the region tonight, leading to clear skies and light winds.  Pwats
will be on par with todays 12z readings, and will not have the cloud
cover to hold up temps at all.  As a result, think temps will be a
degree or two colder over northern WI, so will issue a frost
advisory for Vilas, Forest, and Florence counties. The surface high
will shift slightly to the east on Friday and allow for deeper
moisture to shift north across Minnesota and western Wisconsin.  The
eastern edge of this deeper moisture will likely reach into central
WI during the afternoon, which should lead to a higher coverage of
cu. Any precip chances should remain to the west of the region,
however.  Highs will be a couple degrees warmer than todays readings.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Focus in the long term will be on precipitation timing Friday
evening through the weekend, along with lingering chances early
next week.

Showers should be confined to western Wisconsin late Friday
afternoon. There are some model timing difference on when/if
precipitation will reach the western forecast area (Vilas County
south through Waushara County) Friday evening, but overall trends
show low level moisture and WAA and the RRQ of a weak upper jet
passing by Friday evening through Friday night. Therefore, kept a
chance of showers in the far west. High pressure influence will
still keep the eastern forecast area dry during this time.

Rain chances slowly spread east Saturday afternoon and evening as
the main low pressure system moves closer. Rain becomes more
likely Saturday night into Sunday as the mid-level shortwave
approaches northern Wisconsin. Medium range models are in general
agreement that this energy stalls out over Wisconsin Sunday into
Monday, and then dives south later Monday. This will result in
periodic shower chances through Monday. PWats are around 1.50
inches at times Sunday, which is about half an inch above
climatology normals. Did raise QPF values slightly on Saturday
night/Sunday morning as some heavier rain is possible at times.

Thunderstorm potential looks minimal as instability is not overly
impressive. MUCAPES are mainly around 200 to 500 J/kg Sunday
afternoon, so a few isolated thunderstorms are not out of the
question. On Monday, any thunder would likely be confined to
east- central Wisconsin as a small amount of instability lingers
around there.

Beyond Monday, the rest of the week looks quieter. Some
afternoon showers are possible Tuesday, and a quick moving
shortwave will bring a chance of showers Wednesday afternoon and
evening, but the majority of the time will be dry.

High temperatures will be cooler than normal through Monday, and
then near normal for the rest of the period. Lows will be
slightly below normal on Saturday morning, then fairly mild for
late August.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1006 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Canadian high pressure will bring VFR flight conditions to most
of the region through the TAF period, with the possible exception
of patchy ground fog late tonight over north central WI.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Friday for WIZ005-011-012.
&&

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KLB
AVIATION.......MPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
239 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-251945-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
239 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Frost is likely across far northern Wisconsin late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

Isolated thunderstorms are possible at times through the weekend,
but severe weather is not expected.

Rip currents are possible on Sunday on Lake Michigan beaches.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

LMZ521-522-541>543-251945-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
239 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

Isolated thunderstorms are possible at times through the weekend,
but severe weather is not expected.

Gusty southeast to south winds and increasing waves may create
hazardous conditions for small craft Sunday afternoon into Monday
morning across the coastal waters of Lake Michigan.

MPC/KLB