Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
608 PM MDT Tue Aug 1 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 556 PM MDT Tue Aug 1 2017

Despite the well defined line of storms moving south toward the
forecast area, confidence is low that storms will last long once
they move into the northern counties. Latest data continues to
indicate the storms ending as they move south into the forecast
area; the question is how quickly will they end. By the time the
storms get to Highway 36, they should be dissipating if not
already coming to an end. Have low confidence of storms surviving
once they move past Highway 36 due to lift ending and 700-600mb
theta-e lowering. Storms should be done before midnight.

So far have only seen a wind gust up to 40 MPH from Ogallala as
the storms moved through. While quarter size hail cannot be
completely ruled out, the main threat with these storms will be
wind gusts; possibly as high as 55 MPH but more likely around the
40-50 MPH range.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Tue Aug 1 2017

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible across much of
the area through mid to late evening both across the north and
south where weather disturbances are forecast to move through or
are presently in the area. With very dry air above the low level
moisture storms are not expected to be severe but could produce
rather gusty winds given DCAPE values over 1000 J/KG. Low
temperatures near normal with mid 50s to low 60s.

On Wednesday the day should start out sunny with a slow increase in
clouds across the north as a cold front approaches. May see
thunderstorms develop late in the afternoon with the cold front.
850mb temperatures warm another 2-5F from todays forecast values
supporting mid 80s to low 90s for high temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Tue Aug 1 2017

During the extended period there will be a persistent upper level
northwest flow over the Tri-State region. This pattern supports
chances for precipitation each day. Current guidance has continued
chances for precipitation Wednesday night and into Thursday morning.
The remainder of the day on Thursday is expected to be dry, the
reason for this is due to dry air over the region from a cold
frontal passage Wednesday night.

Come Friday, chances for strong to severe storms are possible.
Models are showing a stronger signal in the mid to late evening
hours for any severe weather. There is a fair amount of CAPE and
bulk shear, and those along with the passage of a shortwave will
increase chances for storm development. Over the past few days the
pattern for Friday has changed, so it will continue to be monitored
to get a better idea on what will occur.

Saturday through Tuesday will see continuous waves of precipitation
moving over the region. This is due to the northwest flow aloft and
shortwaves moving over the region.

Temperatures during the period will start off much cooler in the low
70s to low 80s on Thursday due to the passage of the cold front.
Friday through Tuesday will average in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 531 PM MDT Tue Aug 1 2017

VFR conditions expected for the TAFs. Main issue will be if or
when the storms will impact KMCK this evening. Latest data
indicates the storms moving south will fall apart as they cross
into Hitchcock and Red Willow counties. For this reason have a
VCTS mention due to uncertainty the storms will move over KMCK.
Have even less confidence that storms will move near KGLD.
Otherwise the next chance for storms will not be until closer to
0z Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...JTL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
245 PM MDT Tue Aug 1 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-021200-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
245 PM MDT Tue Aug 1 2017 /345 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado...
extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible through this
evening across much of the area. The primary threats will be hail to
one inch in diameter, outflow wind gusts to 55 mph and a brief
period of locally heavy rainfall which may create reduced
visibilities.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected from late Wednesday afternoon
into the nighttime hours. Some of these storms could become severe
with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats.

There will be a chance of severe thunderstorms across the area from
Friday afternoon into Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
249 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2017

KSZ042-012030-
Wichita KS-
249 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WICHITA COUNTY UNTIL 330
PM CDT...

At 249 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Modoc, moving south at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Marienthal.

LAT...LON 3835 10138 3865 10126 3863 10113 3832 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 009DEG 11KT 3857 10117

Lockhart

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
151 PM MDT TUE AUG 1 2017

KSZ041-012000-
Greeley KS-
151 PM MDT TUE AUG 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN GREELEY COUNTY UNTIL
200 PM MDT...

At 151 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles north of Coolidge, moving south at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
Greeley County.

LAT...LON 3834 10204 3835 10183 3826 10181 3826 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 354DEG 20KT 3824 10193

Lockhart

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
330 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2017

KSZ042-012045-
Wichita KS-
330 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WICHITA COUNTY UNTIL 345
PM CDT...

At 329 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles south of Leoti, moving southwest at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lydia.

LAT...LON 3843 10147 3842 10113 3826 10113 3826 10155
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 031DEG 12KT 3831 10141

Lockhart

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
728 PM MDT TUE AUG 1 2017

NEZ079-020145-
Dundy NE-
728 PM MDT TUE AUG 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DUNDY COUNTY UNTIL 745 PM MDT...

At 727 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 16 miles southwest of Champion to 11 miles
southwest of Enders Reservoir State Recreation Area. Movement was
south at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Benkelman, Parks and Max.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4005 10136 4002 10194 4035 10193 4035 10151
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 339DEG 29KT 4027 10186 4028 10165

Lundquist