Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
626 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 626 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Have issued update to forecast to mainly account for meandering
area of rw/trw currently over NE Colorado. Heavy rainfall is
occurring where storms pass. The entire complex is expected to
lift slowly northward thru 06z some have adjusted.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017

In addition to the high precipitable water values across the area
that could lead to localized heavy precipitation and flash flooding
this evening and overnight, there is a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and again on Thursday with
large hail and damaging winds the primary threats.

A cold front sags south across the region overnight as a short wave
trough emerges out of central Colorado this evening and moves across
the forecast region into southeast Nebraska by late afternoon on
Thursday.

Temperatures will cool substantially behind the front with highs
only in the 80s across the forecast area on Thursday. Dewpoints
remain fairly high with readings in the lower to mid 60s.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop across
eastern Colorado this afternoon and are expected to become more
numerous and move across the remainder of northwest KS and southwest
NE this evening. Widespread 1" rainfall is possible as well as
localized amounts of 3+ inches with some of the stronger storms that
may also train over the same area.  Scattered storms are expected to
continue through the overnight hours and redevelop across the region
on Thursday with an additional 1/4 to 1/2 inch rainfall expected
during the day mainly along and north of Interstate 70.

A flash flood watch was considered for areas mainly across
eastern Colorado and the eastern Colorado border region given the
high precipitable water and potential for localized heavy
rainfall, but have held off for now given the potential for the
area of storms to progress well across the forecast area. However,
if storms appear to be training over the same areas, a watch, or
individual flash flood warnings may have to be considered.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Thursday night-Saturday: With frontal boundary still lingering in
the area, chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist
areawide through the overnight hours Saturday. Best chance for
precipitation will be Thursday night where there will be a Marginal
Risk for severe weather. Main severe threats will be damaging winds
and hail. Temperatures look to be near or slightly below normal for
the period.

Sunday-Wednesday: Upper level ridging dominates the weather for this
period. Dry, hot conditions are expected each day, with high
temperatures well above normal. GFS MOS guidance is still showing
temperatures near or above 100 degrees for Tuesday and Wednesday for
portions of the eastern CWA. Increased high temperatures a few
degrees over what the blend showed for those days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 509 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017

For KGLD...Mainly VFR conditions thru the forecast period with
BKN060-200 giving way to BKN035 after 18z Thursday. From 12z-18z
though OVC015 possible. Showers and thunderstorms will be in the
vicinity and could affect the area...especially 02z-09z.
Winds...meandering from NNE to ENE 10-15kts...with gusts to 25kts
thru 02z Thursday.

For KMCK...Mainly VFR conditions thru the forecast period with
BKN-OVC090-200 giving way to BKN050 after 17z Thursday. From
12z-17z though OVC025 possible. VCTS/VCSH thru 12z Thursday.
Winds...meandering from NNE to ENE 10-15kts with gusts to 25kts
thru 0430z Thursday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...JN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
639 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-140045-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
639 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017 /739 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado...
extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

There is a marginal risk for isolated severe thunderstorms across
eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas this evening. Stronger storms
will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail.

There is a marginal to slight risk for excessive rainfall and flash
flooding in northeast Colorado and adjacent areas of northwest Kansas
and southwest Nebraska. Locally heavy rainfall of up to 1 to 3
inches will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

There is a marginal risk for isolated severe thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
510 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2017

COZ090-091-130000-
Kit Carson County CO-Yuma County CO-
510 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN YUMA AND CENTRAL KIT
CARSON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM MDT...

At 510 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 15 miles south of Eckley to 12 miles north of
Stratton to 9 miles south of Seibert. Movement was east at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Stratton, Seibert, Bethune, Vona, Joes, Abarr and Kirk.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 397 and 429.
 Highway 385 between mile markers 212 and 234.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 10288 3957 10280 3973 10280 3992 10271
      3996 10210 3907 10252 3911 10310
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 272DEG 13KT 3989 10251 3949 10260 3916 10287

DR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
745 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

KSZ042-130100-
Wichita KS-
745 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WICHITA COUNTY UNTIL
800 PM CDT...

At 745 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southeast of Leoti, moving north at 5 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Leoti and Marienthal.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3834 10137 3856 10142 3859 10113 3847 10113
      3835 10116
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 182DEG 5KT 3843 10128

DR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
801 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

KSZ042-130130-
Wichita KS-
801 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WICHITA COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM
CDT...

At 801 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles east of Leoti to 14 miles southeast of
Tribune. Movement was northeast at 5 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Leoti, Marienthal and Selkirk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3860 10157 3869 10113 3838 10113 3830 10157
TIME...MOT...LOC 0101Z 210DEG 6KT 3845 10125 3839 10151

DR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
721 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2017

KSZ041-130130-
Greeley KS-
721 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GREELEY COUNTY UNTIL
730 PM MDT...

At 721 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of Tribune, moving north at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tribune and Horace.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3854 10183 3860 10157 3836 10157 3826 10158
      3826 10183
TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 197DEG 9KT 3829 10170

DR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
737 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2017

KSZ041-042-130215-
Wichita KS-Greeley KS-
737 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WICHITA AND GREELEY COUNTIES
UNTIL 815 PM MDT/915 PM CDT/...

At 737 PM MDT/837 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 3 miles west of Modoc to 10
miles south of Towner. Movement was north at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Leoti, Tribune, Horace, Selkirk and Marienthal.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3862 10204 3870 10113 3836 10113 3826 10191
      3826 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 197DEG 18KT 3850 10115 3832 10201

DR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
841 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

KSZ004-016-130200-
Norton KS-Graham KS-
841 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTON AND NORTHERN
GRAHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 841 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles south of Lenora to 5 miles north of
Logan. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lenora, Edmond and Densmore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3933 10004 3956 10010 3991 9963 3957 9963
      3957 9960 3949 9960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0141Z 221DEG 17KT 3947 9998 3974 9958

DR