Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
526 PM MDT Mon Jul 3 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 128 PM MDT Mon Jul 3 2017

Another weather disturbance embedded within northwest flow aloft is
forecast to emerge over the northeastern plains of Colorado
including Yuma south through Kit Carson counties. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are initially expected with a gradual increase
in coverage and possible intensity this evening as it moves east
across the area. Another possibility is similar to last night with
showers/thunderstorms moving southeast from central Nebraska.
HRRR suggesting wind gusts in the 50 to 60 mph range so for now
have added gusty winds to the grids. Precipitation should be out
of the area shortly after midnight. Low temperatures in the mid
50s to mid 60s.

For Tuesday am expecting plenty of sunshine by mid to late morning.
Models suggesting another weather disturbance moving into the
western 2/3 of the area a little sooner compared to the past few
days with a few thunderstorms possible generally from McCook to
Tribune/Leoti and points west by 00z Wednesday. Afternoon
temperatures expected to reach the upper 80s to low 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 128 PM MDT Mon Jul 3 2017

Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into Tuesday night from the
afternoon as a weak shortwave moves east of the region. Height rises
to the west should hinder convection, but cannot rule out a few
thunderstorms. Severe weather will be possible generally north of
Interstate 70 with large hail and damaging winds as the main
threats.

An upper ridge over the western CONUS expands north and east on
Wednesday and Thursday, keeping the area under north northwest flow
aloft. High pressure dominates the pattern, resulting in dry
conditions during this timeframe. However, guidance has introduced a
quick shot at precipitation Thursday night into Friday as a
disturbance rotates around the eastern edge of the high pressure.

A backdoor cold front approaches the High Plains on Friday, stalling
across the region for the weekend. Meanwhile, the ridge to the west
flattens/regresses and the area is placed under northwest flow
aloft, allowing disturbances to work their way across the region.
This setup enables patchy shower and thunderstorm chances to return
to the forecast through the end of the period. It's a bit too soon
to tell the timing and location of the waves passing through the
eastern periphery of the ridge, so will have to monitor in the
coming days and refine the forecast.

High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to upper 90s throughout
the period. However, a few locations along the Nebraska border could
see temperatures near 100 degrees on Thursday. Low temperatures will
be in the upper 50s to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 526 PM MDT Mon Jul 3 2017

VFR conditions should prevail at KGLD and KMCK terminals, and
prevailing winds should remain below 12kt through the TAF period.
Thunderstorm activity over eastern Colorado is expected to impact
KGLD, with less confidence at KMCK. Temporary restrictions to vis
3-6sm, gusty winds, and possibly hail could accompany this
activity. Current guidance favors this activity decreasing in
coverage near KGLD and sliding south-southeast with less coverage
in SW Nebraska. Adjustments were made to reflect these trends.
Some guidance is showing potential for stratus/fog in north
central Kansas by 12Z, but even if this were to occur it is shown
to remain well southeast of both terminals where better low level
moisture should linger.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
132 PM MDT Mon Jul 3 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-041945-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
132 PM MDT Mon Jul 3 2017 /232 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado...
extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon in
far eastern Colorado spreading east across the remainder of the Tri-
State area during the evening through about midnight. Damaging
outflow winds to 70 mph will be the primary threat along with hail
to around an inch in diameter and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday generally for
areas north of Interstate 70. Large hail and damaging winds will be
the main threats.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday on into the
upcoming weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed from 5 PM MDT (6 PM CDT) through
midnight MDT (1 AM CDT).

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
600 PM MDT MON JUL 3 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001-013-NEZ079-040100-
Kit Carson County CO-Cheyenne County CO-Yuma County CO-Sherman KS-
Cheyenne KS-Dundy NE-
600 PM MDT MON JUL 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...KIT
CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...WESTERN CHEYENNE...
NORTHWESTERN SHERMAN COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
DUNDY COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA UNTIL 700 PM MDT/800 PM
CDT/...

At 600 PM MDT/700 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 15 miles southwest of Lamar
to 13 miles north of Bonny Reservoir to 4 miles northwest of Bethune
to 14 miles northeast of Kit Carson. Movement was southeast at 25
mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Burlington, Wray, St. Francis, Cheyenne Wells, Stratton, Seibert and
Kanorado.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 0 and 7.
 Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 404 and 450.
 Highway 385 between mile markers 142 and 269.

LAT...LON 4044 10205 4035 10205 4035 10182 4024 10160
      3956 10176 3913 10205 3862 10206 3862 10208
      3891 10302 3949 10284 3998 10262 4044 10235
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 311DEG 22KT 4037 10210 3980 10225 3934 10249
3892 10264

Lockhart

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
633 PM MDT MON JUL 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E BURLINGTON          39.31N 102.26W
07/03/2017  M69 MPH          KIT CARSON         CO   MESONET

            SITE KCOBURLI10 MEASURED 69 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

SME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
649 PM MDT MON JUL 3 2017

NEZ079-040115-
Dundy NE-
649 PM MDT MON JUL 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN DUNDY COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM
MDT...

At 649 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Benkelman, moving east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Benkelman, Parks and Max.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4028 10133 4000 10133 4000 10140 4001 10175
      4030 10172
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 274DEG 26KT 4017 10163

Lockhart