Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1130 PM MDT Sun Jul 2 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1126 PM MDT Sun Jul 2 2017

Just completed an update to account for the end of the severe
thunderstorm watch. Current storms are strong. The main problem
has been windy conditions behind the thunderstorms. Mesoscale
boundaries and shortwave trough have maintained the thunderstorms.
So adjusted pops and winds to account for the latest trends.

UPDATE Issued at 540 PM MDT Sun Jul 2 2017

Updated the forecast earlier to put in the severe thunderstorm
watch. In addition adjusted pops to fit current trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sun Jul 2 2017

Latest model guidance continues to advertise a chance of showers
and thunderstorms moving across the area this evening through
early Monday morning as a weather disturbance and favorable upper
level jet divergence moves through from the west. Details are in
timing the arrival and departure (west to east) of what could be a
line/broken line of storms with large hail, damaging outflow
winds and locally heavy rainfall. 18z models have backed off
considerably on areal coverage of storms so a low confidence
forecast right now. Broadly speaking isolated thunderstorms in
eastern Colorado late this afternoon with precipitation exiting
the far eastern forecast area by 09z or so. Low temperatures in
the mid 50s to around 60 in far eastern Colorado with low to mid
60s east of the CO/KS border.

On Monday a similar scenario sets up. Looks like another upper
disturbance reaches far eastern Colorado by mid to late afternoon
then moves across the area during the evening. May have quite a bit
more cloudiness with winds from the east/southeast under 10mph.
Afternoon temperatures will be a little cooler with readings in the
upper 80s to low 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 138 PM MDT Sun Jul 2 2017

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing heading into Monday night. A
shortwave continues across the region along the east side of a low
amplitude ridge located over the western CONUS. Increased
instability due to ample moisture from southerly surface flow
combined with steep lapse rates and decent shear will allow the
potential for severe thunderstorms to persist into the evening.
Sunday's convection makes it difficult to pin point where storms
will develop on Monday, but anticipate thunderstorm activity to exit
the area to the east by midnight. Large hail and damaging winds will
be the main threats. Heavy downpours will be possible as well.

The upper ridge over the western half of the country begins to
expand on Tuesday as Monday's shortwave passes off to the east. A
weak disturbance on Tuesday generates a slight chance of
precipitation for portions of the region in the afternoon and
evening. Cannot rule out isolated severe thunderstorms with enough
instability and shear in the area, but any storms will be limited by
the ridge.

Heights continue to rise as the ridge stretches east and north on
Wednesday and Thursday. This results in dry conditions during this
period. Spotty chances for thunderstorms return Friday through the
weekend with a cold front approaching the High Plains from the north
and weak disturbances traveling along the eastern periphery of the
ridge. Will monitor if high pressure to the west hinders these
precipitation chances.

Highs remain in the upper 80s to upper 90s throughout the period,
peaking on Thursday. Low temperatures will generally be in the upper
50s to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Sun Jul 2 2017

For KGLD...VFR conditions expected thru the forecast period...with
a SCT-BKN mix of mid and high clouds. VCSH 06z-08z. Winds...E
20-30kts decreasing to 10-20kts and shifting to the ESE by 08z. By
12z Monday...meandering from the SE to the SW 10-15kts.

For KMCK...VFR conditions expected thru the forecast period...with
a SCT-BKN mix of mid and high clouds. VCTS 06z-0830z. Winds...ENE
15-30kts thru 0830z then a shift to the WSW briefly around 10kts.
By 11z...ESE around 10kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
335 PM MDT Sun Jul 2 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-031200-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
335 PM MDT Sun Jul 2 2017 /435 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado...
extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through about midnight
MDT (1 AM CDT) across much of the Tri-State area as a strong weather
disturbance moves through. Large hail, damaging outflow winds and
locally heavy rainfall will be the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late Monday afternoon in
far eastern Colorado with the threat spreading east into western
Kansas and extreme southwest Nebraska during the evening hours.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday for areas
east of highway 25.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1250 AM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

KSZ028-029-030615-
Gove KS-Logan KS-
1250 AM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN LOGAN AND WESTERN GOVE
COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

At 1250 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles west of Gove, moving east at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oakley, Grainfield, Grinnell, Gove and The Monument Rocks.

This includes Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 76 and 96.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3873 10093 3912 10095 3912 10043 3872 10041
TIME...MOT...LOC 0550Z 269DEG 20KT 3889 10077

Buller

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
112 AM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

KSZ015-029-030645-
Gove KS-Sheridan KS-
112 AM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SHERIDAN AND EASTERN
GOVE COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM CDT...

At 111 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Quinter, moving southeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to around 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Quinter and Park.

This includes Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 97 and
113.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 10041 3911 10043 3918 10019 3912 10015
      3870 10015
TIME...MOT...LOC 0611Z 330DEG 33KT 3906 10029

Buller

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
154 AM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

KSZ029-030730-
Gove KS-
154 AM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GOVE COUNTY UNTIL
230 AM CDT...

At 154 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles north of Pendennis, moving east at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Gove
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 10046 3893 10038 3892 10015 3870 10016
TIME...MOT...LOC 0654Z 271DEG 21KT 3874 10034

JN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
219 AM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

KSZ028-029-030800-
Gove KS-Logan KS-
219 AM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL LOGAN AND SOUTHERN
GOVE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

At 219 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles west of Gove, moving east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
The Monument Rocks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 10083 3894 10083 3895 10015 3870 10015
TIME...MOT...LOC 0719Z 270DEG 24KT 3890 10075

JN

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