Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Goodland, KS

506 
WWUS53 KGLD 122357
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
657 PM CDT WED APR 12 2017

KSC203-130015-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-170413T0015Z/
Wichita KS-
657 PM CDT WED APR 12 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WICHITA COUNTY...

At 656 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 12 miles west of
Friend, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southeastern Wichita County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Goodland.

&&

LAT...LON 3841 10132 3836 10113 3826 10113 3827 10127
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 272DEG 17KT 3830 10114 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Buller

863 
WWUS53 KGLD 130012
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
712 PM CDT WED APR 12 2017

KSC203-130021-
/O.EXP.KGLD.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-170413T0015Z/
Wichita KS-
712 PM CDT WED APR 12 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WICHITA COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 715 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore the warning will be
allowed to expire.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Goodland.

LAT...LON 3841 10132 3836 10113 3826 10113 3827 10127
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 298DEG 11KT 3828 10110 

$$

Buller

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
203 PM MDT Wed Apr 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 203 PM MDT Wed Apr 12 2017

Two distinct mid level shortwave troughs are splitting around our
CWA. A weaker ripple within the mid level flow may be moving over our
CWA based on RAP analysis (though this isn't showing up in WV
imagery). WV shows dry/subsident air mass just northwest
spreading south and east. At the surface a weak cold front has
pushed into the far northwest part of our CWA, with a prefrontal
trough axis near Tribune extending just southeast of Hill City. A
CU field has developed along the area of covergence near this
surface trough in our southeast (mainly outside of our CWA).

This afternoon-evening: Latest mesoanalysis shows axis of ML cape in
the 10-1500 J/KG range along and south east of surface trough in our
SE CWA where CIN is beginning to weaken. High resolution models show
thunderstorm activity developing along this covergence zone/axis of
instability. Tendency will be for this activity to remain just
southeast of our CWA, but I can't rule out this activity developing
just within our CWA. Better instability and shear would be east-
southeast, but there may be enough for an isolated/organized cell.
Based on near term convective allowing models this activity should
transition southeast of our CWA with mean flow and should end early
this evening.

Late tonight-Thursday morning: Low level flow shifts to the
southeast and will be responsible for increasing BL moisture and a
long fetch of upslope. BL winds may increase enough to limit dense
fog potential, however stratus and light fog are still possible.
This also complicates lows, and I could see a situation where parts
of our CWA do not drop out of the 50s if cloud cover fills in quick
enough this evening.

Thursday: A stronger negatively tilted mid level trough swings over
our CWA. Model soundings show PWATS just under 1" and strong forcing
combined with this moist air mass should support increasing shower
coverage across our east and the possibility for moderate rainfall
amounts Thursday afternoon. Track could limit potential with dry
slot/subsident region across our west. There should be enough
instability for embedded thunderstorms, maybe even a stronger storm.
I'm not particularly confident as in this as models show a fairly
high spread (possibly dependent on clearing skies. Best instability
on NAM is actually in subsident region. Models may be running high
for daytime temps if shower/thunderstorm coverage is better in the
east as consensus seems to indicate, so I trended highs down
slightly during this update.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 201 PM MDT Wed Apr 12 2017

The pattern remains active throughout the long term with multiple
disturbances passing near the area. Temperatures look to stay near
to above normal.

The first wave continues to move across the area Thursday night,
exiting Friday morning. With some instability and increasing
moisture, showers and thunderstorms are possible, mainly east of
the Colorado border.

Precipitation chances shift east of the region Friday morning.
However, another disturbance enters the High Plains from the west
and chances for showers and thunderstorms persist during the
afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe thunderstorms could
develop during this time, with the main threats as large hail and
damaging winds.

Dry weather is currently anticipated for most of the weekend. A cold
front pushes through on Saturday and southwesterly flow aloft turns
zonal. Precipitation chances return Sunday night into Monday when a
shortwave traverses the region.

Unsettled weather continues into next week as periodic shortwaves
move through the flow, generating on and off chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Will need to wait for better agreement among guidance
to nail down timing and locations impacted.

Temperatures peak at the start of the period with highs mainly in
the low 80s. A cold front pushes through on Saturday dropping
temperatures into the upper 60s/70s for the rest of the long term.
Lows will generally be in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM MDT Wed Apr 12 2017

Variable winds generally in the 5 to 8kt range occur at both
terminals this afternoon as surface low pressure near KGLD/KMCK
shifts eastward. Winds eventually shift back to the southeast
late tonight and this will bring with it increasing low level
moisture and stratus/fog potential. Guidance is starting to hint
at the possibility for IFR vis and MVFR cigs. I trended current
TAFs in this direction, while remaining on more optimistic side of
guidance for now in the 11-16Z period (MVFR).

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1042 AM MDT Wed Apr 12 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-131645-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1042 AM MDT Wed Apr 12 2017 /1142 AM CDT Wed Apr 12 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado...
extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A few severe thunderstorms are possible in northwest Kansas east of
a Tribune to Oakley to Norton line. Large hail up to half dollar size
and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph are the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

On Thursday, a few strong thunderstorms are possible east of the
Colorado state line with nickle size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph
the main threats.

A storm system on Friday could bring strong to severe thunderstorms
to the entire Tri State region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 2 PM MDT (3 PM CDT) through 8
PM MDT (9 PM CDT).