Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Goodland, KS

648 
WWUS53 KGLD 260128
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
828 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2017

KSC065-260136-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-170526T0145Z/
Graham KS-
828 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However large hail and 
damaging winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3913 9999 3942 9997 3944 9960 3913 9961
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 271DEG 34KT 3925 9952 

$$

TL/DR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
602 PM MDT Thu May 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Thu May 25 2017

Latest upper air analysis shows a short wave trough moving onto the
High Plains from the west.  Water vapor imagery shows the short wave
trough within a corridor of higher water vapor.  At the surface a
dry line was located east of the CO/KS border arcing northwest near
I-70.  To the north a cold front was sagging south into Northern CO.

For the rest of the afternoon am expecting storm activity to
increase over far Eastern Colorado as instability increases under
the upper level short wave trough.  Meanwhile the front will
continue to move south which will increase the potential for
tornadic development this afternoon.  There continues to be a
limited window for severe storms to develop ahead of the short wave
trough due to most of the CAPE being capped off except for a narrow
corridor ahead of the trough.  Am expecting the storms to cluster
later this afternoon as the main short wave trough responsible for
the storm development moves in.  Main threat will be large hail,
with the potential for larger hail closer to 2 inches in diameter in
KS where the CAPE and shear will be stronger, and damaging wind
gusts due to the dry environment and high cloud bases.

Early this evening the storm activity should be centered over the
Tri-State Area.  There could be some training storm activity along
the weak cold front along the KS/NE border.  Storms should begin to
exit the forecast area around mid evening as the upper level short
wave trough moves east of the area.  However models are hinting at
the possibility of elevated storms forming as minor ripples in the
upper level flow move over the forecast area behind the storm
activity.  Am doubtful of this since the environment usually
stabilizes behind a cluster of storms in the evening.  The storm
activity will push the weak front well south of the forecast area.

Friday another more intense round of severe weather is expected to
begin during the latter half of the afternoon as an upper level
short wave trough approaches from the west.  The weak front will
return over the southwest/west quadrant of the forecast area.  Along
and south of the front CAPE will be highest and will begin to be
uncapped during the latter half of the afternoon.  Meanwhile the
upper level short wave trough will move overhead which should
initiate storm development.  This short wave trough will not move
very fast to the east, so there could be repeated storm development
over the southwest/west part of the forecast area as a result.  Deep
layer shear will be stronger than today, 40-50 kts, favorable for
stronger storms than today.  With the upper level short wave trough
moving fairly slowly and precipitable water values above normal,
heavy rainfall will be much more likely than today.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Thu May 25 2017

Friday night-Saturday: Shortwave approaches the area in the late
afternoon/early evening. Models are advertising a decent setup for
the potential of severe weather and moderate rainfall through this
period. 12Z NAM model soundings for KGLD have MUCAPE around 1700
J/kg, 0-6km shear near 55 kt, and rightward curving hodographs
during the evening and overnight hours. Our CWA is currently shown
in the Slight Risk area by the SPC and as of now, all modes of
severe weather are possible. Also, PWAT values could be as high as
0.9-1.0 in. which may result in some decent rainfall amounts.
Currently, forecast QPF amounts are between 0.5-1.0 inch across
areas north of I-70. Rain chances wane through the day as high
pressure builds into the area through Saturday night. Temperatures
should be near normal Friday night with lows around 50 and below
normal Saturday with highs in the mid 60s and lows in the mid to
upper 40s.

Sunday-Thursday: Upper level ridging dominates the weather pattern
Sunday through Monday. Slight chance of rain and thunderstorms
Tuesday with a better chance coming Wednesday. Temperatures warm
each day with highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid 50s Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 532 PM MDT Thu May 25 2017

VFR conditions with scattered thunderstorms with intermittent MVFR
conditions passing through the area will continue through about
04Z at both GLD and MCK. After 04Z...lower clouds will begin to
clear out with high clouds remaining overnight that are expected
to diminish by mid day on Friday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...LOCKHART

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
336 PM MDT Thu May 25 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-262145-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
336 PM MDT Thu May 25 2017 /436 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado...
extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the Kansas and Nebraska
border around 2 pm MDT (3 pm CDT) and spread east across the area
through 9 pm MDT (10 pm CDT). A few severe storms are possible
during this time, with the largest threat being strong microburst
winds in excess of 65 mph...blowing dust and large hail up to 3 inches
in diameter.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the area Friday
afternoon through the night as a weather disturbance moves off the
Colorado front range and into the area. Supercell thunderstorms
producing very large hail, damaging winds and possibly a tornado
will be the primary threats in the afternoon. The storms are
expected to organize into a large cluster of storms in the evening
and overnight hours with the primary threats becoming large hail,
damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Any storm reports through social
media or by phone are very helpful.

JTL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
502 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     HAIL             WINONA                  39.06N 101.25W
05/25/2017  E0.50 INCH       LOGAN              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO WINDS ESTIMATED OVER 65 MPH

&&

BWARREN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
536 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             GOODLAND                39.35N 101.71W
05/25/2017  E0.50 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

BWARREN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
546 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     HAIL             1 ENE GOODLAND          39.35N 101.69W
05/25/2017  E0.25 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   COCORAHS

&&

BWARREN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
600 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     HAIL             GRINNELL                39.12N 100.63W
05/25/2017  E0.88 INCH       GOVE               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEAK WIND OF 70MPH.

&&

BWARREN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
615 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S OAKLEY              39.08N 100.85W
05/25/2017                   LOGAN              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            METAL SHED BLOWN DOWN. BROKEN POWER POLL. NUMBER OF TREES
            BLOWN DOWN INCLUDING ONE THAT WAS 30 FEET TALL.

&&

BWARREN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
707 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND DMG     QUINTER                 39.07N 100.23W
05/25/2017                   GOVE               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF POWER LINE BLOWN DOWN IN QUINTER.

&&

BWARREN