Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
255 PM MDT Thu May 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Thu May 25 2017

Latest upper air analysis shows a short wave trough moving onto the
High Plains from the west.  Water vapor imagery shows the short wave
trough within a corridor of higher water vapor.  At the surface a
dry line was located east of the CO/KS border arcing northwest near
I-70.  To the north a cold front was sagging south into Northern CO.

For the rest of the afternoon am expecting storm activity to
increase over far Eastern Colorado as instability increases under
the upper level short wave trough.  Meanwhile the front will
continue to move south which will increase the potential for
tornadic development this afternoon.  There continues to be a
limited window for severe storms to develop ahead of the short wave
trough due to most of the CAPE being capped off except for a narrow
corridor ahead of the trough.  Am expecting the storms to cluster
later this afternoon as the main short wave trough responsible for
the storm development moves in.  Main threat will be large hail,
with the potential for larger hail closer to 2 inches in diameter in
KS where the CAPE and shear will be stronger, and damaging wind
gusts due to the dry environment and high cloud bases.

Early this evening the storm activity should be centered over the
Tri-State Area.  There could be some training storm activity along
the weak cold front along the KS/NE border.  Storms should begin to
exit the forecast area around mid evening as the upper level short
wave trough moves east of the area.  However models are hinting at
the possibility of elevated storms forming as minor ripples in the
upper level flow move over the forecast area behind the storm
activity.  Am doubtful of this since the environment usually
stabilizes behind a cluster of storms in the evening.  The storm
activity will push the weak front well south of the forecast area.

Friday another more intense round of severe weather is expected to
begin during the latter half of the afternoon as an upper level
short wave trough approaches from the west.  The weak front will
return over the southwest/west quadrant of the forecast area.  Along
and south of the front CAPE will be highest and will begin to be
uncapped during the latter half of the afternoon.  Meanwhile the
upper level short wave trough will move overhead which should
initiate storm development.  This short wave trough will not move
very fast to the east, so there could be repeated storm development
over the southwest/west part of the forecast area as a result.  Deep
layer shear will be stronger than today, 40-50 kts, favorable for
stronger storms than today.  With the upper level short wave trough
moving fairly slowly and precipitable water values above normal,
heavy rainfall will be much more likely than today.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Thu May 25 2017

Friday night-Saturday: Shortwave approaches the area in the late
afternoon/early evening. Models are advertising a decent setup for
the potential of severe weather and moderate rainfall through this
period. 12Z NAM model soundings for KGLD have MUCAPE around 1700
J/kg, 0-6km shear near 55 kt, and rightward curving hodographs
during the evening and overnight hours. Our CWA is currently shown
in the Slight Risk area by the SPC and as of now, all modes of
severe weather are possible. Also, PWAT values could be as high as
0.9-1.0 in. which may result in some decent rainfall amounts.
Currently, forecast QPF amounts are between 0.5-1.0 inch across
areas north of I-70. Rain chances wane through the day as high
pressure builds into the area through Saturday night. Temperatures
should be near normal Friday night with lows around 50 and below
normal Saturday with highs in the mid 60s and lows in the mid to
upper 40s.

Sunday-Thursday: Upper level ridging dominates the weather pattern
Sunday through Monday. Slight chance of rain and thunderstorms
Tuesday with a better chance coming Wednesday. Temperatures warm
each day with highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid 50s Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM MDT Thu May 25 2017

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Main focus will be the
timing of the storms this afternoon and this evening. Currently
looks like there will be two rounds of storms. The first round
will be isolated and likely form off the developing dry line over
East Central Colorado. Not far behind that initial development
will be the main round of storms that will be in a cluster as they
move east across the forecast area. Large hail and damaging winds
will be the threats with these storms. The activity will be east,
or should be east of the TAF sites by 3z or so.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...JTL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
336 PM MDT Thu May 25 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-262145-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
336 PM MDT Thu May 25 2017 /436 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado...
extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the Kansas and Nebraska
border around 2 pm MDT (3 pm CDT) and spread east across the area
through 9 pm MDT (10 pm CDT). A few severe storms are possible
during this time, with the largest threat being strong microburst
winds in excess of 65 mph...blowing dust and large hail up to 3 inches
in diameter.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the area Friday
afternoon through the night as a weather disturbance moves off the
Colorado front range and into the area. Supercell thunderstorms
producing very large hail, damaging winds and possibly a tornado
will be the primary threats in the afternoon. The storms are
expected to organize into a large cluster of storms in the evening
and overnight hours with the primary threats becoming large hail,
damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Any storm reports through social
media or by phone are very helpful.

JTL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
323 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2017

COZ091-252145-
Kit Carson County CO-
323 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY
UNTIL 345 PM MDT...

At 323 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles north of Burlington, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Burlington and Bethune.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 428 and 450.
 Highway 385 between mile markers 186 and 202.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
east central Colorado.

LAT...LON 3928 10246 3948 10249 3954 10205 3928 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 266DEG 21KT 3937 10230

TL/DR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
331 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0327 PM     HAIL             6 NE IDALIA             39.75N 102.21W
05/25/2017  E3.00 INCH       YUMA               CO   STORM CHASER

            WINDSHEILD SMASHED. ISOLATED STONES LARGER THAN
            BASEBALLS.

&&

JLUNDQUIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
355 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TORNADO          5 N BONNY RESERVOIR     39.69N 102.17W
05/25/2017                   YUMA               CO   STORM CHASER

            LASTED ROUGHLY 5 MINUTES.

&&

JLUNDQUIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
356 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             7 S YUMA                40.02N 102.72W
05/25/2017  E1.25 INCH       YUMA               CO   COCORAHS

&&

BWARREN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
402 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             3 E KANORADO            39.34N 101.98W
05/25/2017  E0.88 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   STORM CHASER

&&

JLUNDQUIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
410 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     HAIL             7 E KANORADO            39.34N 101.91W
05/25/2017  E0.50 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   PUBLIC

&&

BWARREN