Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Goodland, KS

555 
WWUS53 KGLD 152344
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
644 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2017

KSC039-193-152354-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-170516T0030Z/
Thomas KS-Decatur KS-
644 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN THOMAS AND
SOUTHERN DECATUR COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3926 10065 3932 10072 3938 10072 3946 10067
      3947 10047
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 244DEG 21KT 3939 10059 

$$

KSC179-160030-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-170516T0030Z/
Sheridan KS-
644 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL SHERIDAN COUNTY...

At 644 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of
Menlo, or 8 miles west of Hoxie, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Seguin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3926 10065 3932 10072 3938 10072 3946 10067
      3947 10047
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 244DEG 21KT 3939 10059 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Husted

159 
WWUS53 KGLD 160009
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
709 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2017

KSC179-160018-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-170516T0030Z/
Sheridan KS-
709 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL SHERIDAN COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northwestern Kansas.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
northeastern Sheridan County until 745 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3926 10065 3932 10072 3938 10072 3946 10067
      3947 10047
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 209DEG 28KT 3956 10047 

$$

Husted

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
454 PM MDT Mon May 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM MDT Mon May 15 2017

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to quickly
develop after about 4 pm mdt this afternoon as a weather disturbance
moves in from the south-southwest and interacts with the dryline.
The activity is expected to move toward the northeast and should be
out of the area around 11 pm mdt. Clouds will quickly decrease
behind the thunderstorms. Southerly winds will remain in the breezy
category overnight keeping modest low level moisture in the area.
Low temperatures will remain mild for this time of year with upper
40s to low 50s in far eastern Colorado, mid 50s to low 60s east of
the state line.

Variable winds under 10 mph expected for much of the morning Tuesday
before establishing a south to southeast component at 10 to 20 mph
by mid afternoon. 850mb temperatures cool about 5F across the area
supporting highs in the mid 70s to around 80 in far eastern
Colorado, low to mid 80s elsewhere. Showers and thunderstorms, some
severe, are possible during the mid to late afternoon hours through
evening for much of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 211 PM MDT Mon May 15 2017

For Tuesday night, the dry line is anticipated to be further west
than previously forecast, sharpening over the eastern portion of the
forecast area before progressing east. A surface low moves across
the region with deep layer shear increasing to values exceeding 40
knots. Additionally, MUCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg and steep mid
level lapse rates favor severe thunderstorm development along the
dry line into the evening hours. The main threats with these
storms will be very large hail (2 inches in diameter or greater)
and strong winds. A tornado cannot be ruled out. Meanwhile, the
first of two upper closed lows advances from the desert southwest
and across the High Plains Tuesday night. This negatively tilted
trough and cold front bring additional shower and thunderstorm
chances to the area, moving from west to east.

Precipitation chances associated with the aforementioned low
continue into Wednesday. Severe potential decreases with reduced
parameters in between the two systems pegged to impact the long term
period. A brief dry period is expected midday Wednesday due to a
shortwave ridge overhead.

Models begin to diverge on Thursday and Friday with the handling of
the second (primary) upper closed low. As this system digs across
the northern desert southwest and enters the High Plains, it
generates shower and thunderstorm chances late Wednesday through
Friday. At this time it appears the better severe threat should be
east/south of the forecast area. Hope to have a better idea of what
will come out of this system in the coming days as differences are
resolved.

Conditions dry out over the weekend as the upper system exits and
heads towards the Great Lakes. There are some lingering chances into
Saturday, but it's not clear if that or the dry solution will pan
out. Depends on how quickly the disturbance leaves the area.
Westerly flow develops aloft on Monday.

Temperatures cool for the first part of the period, from the 70s on
Wednesday to the 50s/low 60s on Friday. Highs rebound over the
weekend and are back in the 70s on Monday. Low temperatures fall
from the mid 40s/mid 50s Tuesday night to the low 30s/low 40s Friday
night before warming this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 454 PM MDT Mon May 15 2017

For KGLD...Mainly VFR conditions thru the forecast period. There
is a chance for thunderstorms that may bring conditions down due
to hail and heavy rain thru 02z-03z Tuesday. Winds SSW 15-30kts
thru 12z Tuesday...then WNW around 10kts thru 17z then becoming SE
5-10kts. LLWS 07z-12z 180@55kts.

For KMCK...Mainly VFR conditions thru the forecast period. There
is a chance for thunderstorms that may bring conditions down due
to hail and heavy rain thru 06z Tuesday. Winds SSE 15-30kts thru
10z Tuesday...then SSW around 10kts thru 17z then becoming SE
5-10kts. LLWS 06z-12z 190@35-45kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1035 AM MDT Mon May 15 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-161200-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1035 AM MDT Mon May 15 2017 /1135 AM CDT Mon May 15 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado...
extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Severe thunderstorms are expected from mid afternoon through the
evening hours generally along and east of a line from Benkelman
Nebraska to Burlington and Cheyenne Wells Colorado. Large hail,
damaging winds over 60 mph and locally heavy rainfall will be the
primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Another round of severe thunderstorms is expected across the eastern
half of the area from late Tuesday afternoon into the overnight
hours. The best chance for severe weather will be roughly along and
east of a line from Oakley to Atwood to Stratton Nebraska. Very
large hail, 2 inches in diameter or greater, along with damaging
winds will be the main threats. However, a tornado or two cannot be
ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed after 4 PM MDT (5 PM CDT).

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
437 PM MDT MON MAY 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     HAIL             1 N CHEYENNE WELLS      38.83N 102.35W
05/15/2017  E1.00 INCH       CHEYENNE           CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A LOT OF HAIL POUNDING AGAINST HOUSE. MOST APPEARS TO BE
            QUARTER SIZE.

&&

DR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
439 PM MDT MON MAY 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             9 E WINONA              39.06N 101.08W
05/15/2017  M1.00 INCH       LOGAN              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
446 PM MDT MON MAY 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             9 WSW OAKLEY            39.08N 101.01W
05/15/2017  M1.00 INCH       LOGAN              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
450 PM MDT MON MAY 15 2017

COZ092-152300-
Cheyenne County CO-
450 PM MDT MON MAY 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

At 450 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kit Carson, or 20 miles west of Cheyenne Wells, moving north at 35
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kit Carson and Firstview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 10270 3874 10287 3903 10280 3896 10243
      3879 10245
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 198DEG 30KT 3878 10273

Husted

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
555 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2017

KSZ003-015-152315-
Sheridan KS-Decatur KS-
555 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SHERIDAN AND
SOUTHERN DECATUR COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 555 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Selden, or 13 miles northwest of Hoxie, moving north at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Selden, Jennings, Dresden and Leoville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3943 10045 3948 10067 3978 10060 3969 10027
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 198DEG 30KT 3953 10053

Husted

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
618 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2017

KSZ003-015-152330-
Sheridan KS-Decatur KS-
618 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SHERIDAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN DECATUR COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 616 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles east of Dresden, or 17 miles north of Hoxie, moving northeast
at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jennings, Clayton and Dresden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3947 10031 3960 10048 3982 10029 3974 10018
      3957 10018 3957 10016 3956 10016
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 222DEG 23KT 3960 10034

Husted