Severe Thunderstorm Warning 317, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
304 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through tonight)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2017

Amplified pattern remains in place with large scale upper trough
over the western US, and southwest flow over the Central High
Plains. A stalled front is just east of our CWA, with stratus
extending west over much of our CWA. There has been a trend in
stratus beginning to break up, particularly in our southwest.

This afternoon-Tonight: There is a sharp cutoff along the frontal
zone in our east where supercell development is possible this
afternoon/evening. Deep strong shear has already developed as strong
sw flow overrides low level veering along frontal zone (mesoanalysis
shows bulk effective shear around 50kt). Short range guidance still
supports this front lifting northwest, and this could allow more
favorable air mass/instability to build into our CWA. There has been
very little movement so far, and if the front remains further south
this could limit severe threat further south and east.

Better forcing increases as a shortwave troughs the base of the
upper trough and interacts with elevated frontal zone over the rest
of our CWA. Elevated instability isn't as high, but high shear will
be in place as evening moves on. High resolution guidance continues
to indicate several clusters or linear segments forming and this may
support more of a wind threat late this evening (assuming winds are
able to penetrate stable low levels at that point).

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2017

Tuesday-Friday night: Large scale upper low will be slow to break
down, with individual closed centers breaking off across the
northern plains. Deep moisture builds with the southwest flow ahead
of the trough and with a stalled frontal zone in place we will see
increasing precip chances. Temps are particularly trick as period of
cloud cover and precip could hold highs down, while between
shortwaves we should see increasing WAA and highs closer to upper
70s/near 80F.

Sunday-Monday: Stronger upper troughs from Canada begin to drop
towards the plains during these periods. Precip chances are less
certain due to dry air mass ahead of these troughs, however we may
see the coldest air mass of the season so far reach our CWA by
Monday-Monday night and increasing frost potential.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM MDT Mon Oct 2 2017

Low stratus is lingering along a front southeast of both KGLD and
KMCK. As this front lifts northwest MVFR conditions will begin to
build over both terminals, with IFR possible late tonight (low
confidence on this). Current obs/model trend is to slow down the
timing, and I adjusted TAFs to reflect this. Showers/thunderstorms
are also expected to develop along this front, with coverage
increasing this evening at both terminals. Best overall chance for
lower cigs and thunderstorms will be at KMCK this evening.
Another cold front moves through the region tonight with winds
shifting to the northwest, and then conditions improving by 12Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1120 AM MDT Mon Oct 2 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-031730-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1120 AM MDT Mon Oct 2 2017 /1220 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop east of
Highway 83 this afternoon, with coverage increasing across the entire
region this evening. Severe weather will be possible across the
region. The best chance for severe weather will be east of Highway
83 this afternoon and early evening, where hail greater than 2
inches, damaging winds in excess of 60 mph, and a few tornadoes will
be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 1 PM MDT (2 PM CDT) through
this evening.