Severe Thunderstorm Warning 289, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
545 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 539 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Main change was to refine the timing of storms for the Tri-State
Area this evening based on latest radar trends and near term model
data. Model data and radar were both supporting two groups of
storms, one over the south and one over the north. There is more
model agreement and stronger lift and more instability over the
south half of the Tri- State Area, so initially had more
confidence of storms there. However radar trends show the storms
over the north increasing in coverage. The better preforming model
data for these storms has the two groups eventually merging over
the east half of the Tri-State Area. The storm activity will
largely be done before midnight local time. Main threats will be
damaging wind gusts and hail up to golf ball size. The greatest
threat for severe weather will be south of I-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 201 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Forecast issues will be chance of thunderstorms and their severity.
Weak right rear quadrant moves across the area during the night.
Shortwave trough moves across the forecast area the night. So kept
the trend of slight chance to low chance pops progressing across the
area during the night looks good. Shear and other severe
indices/parameters support having at least isolated severe.

Drying and subsidence moves into the area during the day as mid
level heights rise and ridging moves into area. Surface ridge noses
in during the day as winds shift to the north. Guidance very similar
to the previous forecast and made only minor adjustments.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 138 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Monsoonal moisture continues to advect into the central Plains
region Friday night and Saturday as the H5 ridge remains in place
over southeast Texas. H7 trough sets up in the lee of the Rockies
Saturday afternoon, giving us a chance of thunderstorms mainly east
of the Kansas, Colorado border. Isolated strong to severe storms are
possible. For Sunday, the trough remains in the area and with
slightly better instability in place, we could see another round of
isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms mainly east of
HWY 83.

Monday and Tuesday: A theta-e axis will be in place, stretched from
southwest to northeast across the CWA. CAPE remains modest with
relatively weak shear both in the 0-1 km and 0-6 km layers. Strong
to severe storms are a possibility during the late afternoon and
evening mainly along and east of this boundary; however, coverage
will likely be limited. Good instability will be in place Tuesday
but with little in the way of forcing or shear, thunderstorm
development is not expected.

Wednesday and Thursday: A relatively strong shortwave will move
across the region with an associated theta-e boundary and CAPE axis.
Will need to monitor this closely for consistency in the upcoming
days as more widespread thunderstorm development would be expected
with this scenario.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 539 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. A broken line of storms will
move east across the forecast area. Not very confident KGLD will
have storms close enough to warrant a mention. However KMCK will
have the line move through. Did not have the storms in a
prevailing group due to the line not being very wide.  Otherwise
south winds will turn to the northwest Friday morning behind a
surface trough.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JTL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
507 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-182315-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
507 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017 /607 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado...
extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...

Strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the entire Tri-State
Area late this afternoon through mid evening. Damaging winds and
large hail up to golf ball size will be the main threats with the
most intense storms. The severe threat will end from west to east by
11 PM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon
and evening across the Tri-State area.

Thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the area nearly every
day next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Any weather reports are
appreciated.

JTL

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
757 PM MDT THU AUG 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 PM     TSTM WND GST     ATWOOD                  39.81N 101.04W
08/17/2017  M50 MPH          RAWLINS            KS   AWOS

&&

DR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
909 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

KSZ002>004-014-015-180230-
Norton KS-Rawlins KS-Sheridan KS-Decatur KS-Thomas KS-
909 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN THOMAS...WEST
CENTRAL NORTON...NORTHWESTERN SHERIDAN...SOUTHEASTERN RAWLINS AND
DECATUR COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 909 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Oberlin to 11 miles northwest of Selden to
11 miles northwest of Rexford. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Norton, Oberlin, Rexford, Selden, Norcatur, Jennings and Clayton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3959 10020 3934 10068 3958 10104 3997 10053
      3983 9989
TIME...MOT...LOC 0209Z 286DEG 40KT 3984 10048 3969 10066 3960 10088

JRM