Severe Thunderstorm Warning 272, NWS Goodland, KS

253 
WWUS53 KGLD 142250
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
450 PM MDT MON AUG 14 2017

KSC023-181-142330-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0272.000000T0000Z-170814T2330Z/
Cheyenne KS-Sherman KS-
450 PM MDT MON AUG 14 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM
MDT/630 PM CDT/ FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHEYENNE AND NORTHEASTERN SHERMAN
COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...

At 449 PM MDT/549 PM CDT/, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles
south of Bird City, or 15 miles southeast of St. Francis, moving
south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. Spotters have reported hail to half dollar 
         size around Bird City.
         

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Bird City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 10141 3957 10140 3946 10139 3945 10171
      3975 10167 3976 10141
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 351DEG 19KT 3967 10153 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JRM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
241 PM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...summer temperatures
have returned to the area with locales currently seeing a range
mainly from the mid 80s to the lower 90s...under mainly sunny/mostly
sunny skies. SSE winds allowing for moist airmass with dewpts
ranging from the mid 50s to the mid 60s.

For the rest of the afternoon into the evening hours...increasing
low level clouds expected from the west as a weak shortwave slowly
works east from the NC Rockies. Some weak showers activity is
currently working across the NC Colorado in tandem with the
shortwave. Models do track the system out into the Plains Region
later tonight and east of the CWA by Tuesday morning. Even after
sunset...instability will remain over the region prompting the
potential for some rw/trw...but below severe limits. Have continued
trend of pops from previous shift keeping locales along and north of
Interstate 70 seeing the best chances for precip. Overnight lows
will be in the 60s.

Have continued mention of patchy fog after midnight tonight to
around 14z Tuesday.

Going into Tuesday...similar airmass over the region as strong WAA
on southerly flow will once again bring temps into the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Models shift a stronger shortwave off the central Rockies
northeast into the Plains Region. Convection is expected to begin by
late afternoon and carry into the evening hrs. The approach of this
system combined with the very unstable low level airmass will create
the potential for severe wx. The SPC has the entire forecast area
under a Slight Risk as a result. Large hail...damaging winds and
even a few tornados are possible...especially along and north of the
KS/NE border. With high PW values over an inch expected...locally
heavy rainfall could bring about flash flooding issues to many
locales.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Tuesday night: 12Z model runs continue to show the potential for
severe weather through the evening and even after midnight for much
of the area. Model soundings show good severe weather parameters
across the area, with the best dynamics along and north of the KS/NE
border. 9Z SREF soundings for the McCook area show ample CAPE and 0-
6km bulk shear, but also have right arcing hodographs, strong SFC-
1km helicity, and PWATS over 1.75 inches. This means large hail,
damaging winds, a few brief tornadoes, and heavy rainfall will be
possible with any storms that form.

Wednesday-Monday: After longwave trough traverses the area
Wednesday, NW to zonal flow sets up aloft through Saturday. Upper
level ridging on Sunday brings drier weather through Monday. Chance
of showers and storms Thursday and Saturday evenings with the best
chance of rain and storms coming Thursday night. Daytime highs warm
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

For KGLD and KMCK...VFR conditions expected through the period.
Slight chance of thunderstorms across the area this evening.
Omitted mention of VCTS or VCSH due to lack of confidence in where
storm formation would be, if any. Skies should remain clear and
winds light and out of a southerly direction through the morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...SME

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
341 PM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-152145-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
341 PM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017 /441 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado...
extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon east of
the Colorado border. Large hail up to half dollar size and wind
gusts of 60 MPH are possible with the strongest storms through the
early evening. Due to the slow storm motion and heavy rainfall,
localized flooding is possible with any storms that develop.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

An active pattern will continue to produce isolated to scattered
thunderstorms each day across the forecast area. The next best
chance for severe thunderstorms will be Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats along
with the potential for localized heavy rainfall leading to flash
flooding as storms move across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
404 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2017

KSZ002-142130-
Rawlins KS-
404 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN RAWLINS COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM CDT...

At 404 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles north of McDonald, or 12 miles southeast of Benkelman. This
storm was nearly stationary.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Rawlins County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3984 10115 3987 10138 4000 10141 4000 10119
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 253DEG 2KT 3995 10134

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
405 PM MDT MON AUG 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 PM     HAIL             14 N BIRD CITY          39.95N 101.53W
08/14/2017  M0.75 INCH       CHEYENNE           KS   PUBLIC

&&

CLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
429 PM MDT MON AUG 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     HAIL             MCDONALD                39.79N 101.37W
08/14/2017  M1.00 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CLT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
436 PM MDT MON AUG 14 2017

KSZ001-013-142245-
Sherman KS-Cheyenne KS-
436 PM MDT MON AUG 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CHEYENNE AND NORTHERN
SHERMAN COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS UNTIL 445 PM MDT/545 PM
CDT/...

At 435 PM MDT/535 PM CDT/, strong thunderstorm outflow was located 8
miles south of St. Francis, moving south at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible. These winds will occur
well away from the parent thunderstorm and will increase suddenly as
winds shift to the north.

Locations impacted include...
St. Francis and Wheeler.

LAT...LON 3967 10149 3937 10152 3947 10205 3964 10205
      3989 10198
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 020DEG 32KT 3966 10184

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
440 PM MDT MON AUG 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             BIRD CITY               39.75N 101.53W
08/14/2017  M1.00 INCH       CHEYENNE           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
441 PM MDT MON AUG 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     HAIL             1 W BIRD CITY           39.75N 101.55W
08/14/2017  E0.75 INCH       CHEYENNE           KS   PUBLIC

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AT THE BIRD CITY AIRPORT.
            VISIBILITY IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL OF A QUARTER TO HALF A
            MILE.

&&

JLUNDQUIST