Severe Thunderstorm Warning 242, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
612 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 600 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2017

Based on latest storm development and expected storm coverage have
increased rainfall chances for the evening over the west and east
part of the forecast area. Strongest lift will continue over the
west half to third of the forecast area for another hour or so
then begin to decline as the upper level short wave trough
responsible begins to fill from the south. However lift with this
same short wave trough will still be favorable for storm
development over the northeast part of the forecast area this
evening. Storms will persist longer here due to the lift remaining
longer before it moves east after midnight. The threat for large
hail should be less over the east part of the forecast area due to
the storms merging. This merging will cause beneficial
competition of ice crystals in storm updrafts downstream resulting
in smaller hail. Have seen this happen with the storms in East
Central Colorado with the northern storm producing much larger
hail than the southern storm. Cannot rule out damaging wind gusts
this evening as the storms move through.

After midnight there maybe some lingering storms east of Highway
83 that will gradually exit the forecast area well before sunrise.
There will be a few hour lull before the next round of storms move
in from the west starting mid morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 150 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2017

Showers are already starting to develop over far southwest
Nebraska and central Colorado this afternoon. Expect these
showers/thunderstorms to increase in coverage through the
remainder of the afternoon and into the evening with thunderstorms
spreading into northwest Kansas as the tail end of an upper short
wave trough and a prefrontal surface trough moves into the
forecast area between 21Z-00Z. The primary time expected for
possible severe storms will be between 00Z-06Z as storms reach
their peak intensity and coverage as they continue to spread
across the forecast area. After 06Z, expect storms to be
decreasing in intensity and coverage with storms exiting the
eastern sections of the forecast area between 09Z-15Z following
the passage of the upper short wave trough and the surface cold
front.

Model output is showing additional weak embedded short wave
activity with some convective feedback moving east of the Rockies
over central Colorado Thursday morning after 12Z. Feel it is
possible to see scattered showers again through the day on
Thursday as a result of the weak upper disturbance moving through
from eastern Colorado along the western and southern periphery of
the forecast area in the vicinity of the western extent of the
cold frontal boundary as it snakes back into eastern Colorado.
Ended up refining the timing and coverage from what the blended
model solution was giving through the day on Friday instead of
blanketing the whole area with lower pops. This may show as a
slightly higher POP grid over 6-12hrs, but should prove to be a
more realistic depiction of the transition of weather across the
forecast area than what the blended solution gave.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 126 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2017

Upper level flow over the extended period will be from the
northwest. Due to this pattern and 700mb shortwaves moving over the
CWA, there will be chances for precipitation almost every day.
Thursday night will start off dry due to the cold, dry air that will
move over the area due to a cold front that will pass over the
region Wednesday night. A transition to storm chances will return
Friday. Current guidance shows the timeframe for precipitation
chances will be in the early to late evening.

The remainder of the period will see similarities day-by-day, waves
of moisture and precipitation are expected to impact the region.
Models are showing the potential for a change come Tuesday, with
some western shifting of the upper level flow. This pattern is still
showing to bring precipitation to the region.

Temperatures during the period will primarily be in the 80s, with
some locations dropping into the 70s on Friday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 457 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2017

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Main focus is the timing and
likelihood of storms moving through both sites this evening.
Current radar shows a broken line of storms moving south.
Anticipate this line filling in more but still remaining broken.
Storm coverage should be highest near and east of KMCK this
evening. Still don't have too high a confidence of storms
impacting KGLD but storm coverage is starting to look better to
the north of the site. Based on observations from yesterday, the
visibility may fall to MVFR for a short time if a strong enough
storms moves over the site. Do not have high enough confidence to
go below VFR at this time. The storm activity should end near or
not long after 6z for both sites.

Winds will be somewhat variable from 3z to 8z as the pre-frontal
trough moves through. Winds will be breezy Thursday afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...JTL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
618 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-040030-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
618 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2017 /718 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado...
extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to spread southeast through the
Tri-State Area this evening. Some storms could become severe during
the evening along and north of a line from Cheyenne Wells, Colorado
to Norton, Kansas. Large hail up to hen egg size and damaging winds
of 70 MPH will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

There is a possibility of thunderstorms each day through the
remainder of the forecast period with a marginal threat of severe
storms across northeast Colorado and western Nebraska Friday
evening. The main threat with any storms that become severe will be
large hail and strong winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this evening. Any reports by phone
or social media are appreciated.

jtl

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
609 PM MDT WED AUG 2 2017

COZ091-092-030045-
Kit Carson County CO-Cheyenne County CO-
609 PM MDT WED AUG 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE AND
SOUTHWESTERN KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 645
PM MDT...

At 608 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles south of Flagler, moving south at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Cheyenne and southwestern Kit Carson Counties in east central
Colorado.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
east central Colorado.

LAT...LON 3911 10313 3919 10292 3893 10276 3885 10305
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 337DEG 21KT 3909 10300

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
635 PM MDT WED AUG 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     HAIL             TRENTON                 40.17N 101.01W
08/02/2017  M1.25 INCH       HITCHCOCK          NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TLYNCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
638 PM MDT WED AUG 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     HAIL             TRENTON                 40.17N 101.01W
08/02/2017  M1.00 INCH       HITCHCOCK          NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TLYNCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
639 PM MDT WED AUG 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     HAIL             3 E TRENTON             40.17N 100.96W
08/02/2017  M1.00 INCH       HITCHCOCK          NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TLYNCH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
642 PM MDT WED AUG 2 2017

KSZ002-NEZ079-080-030100-
Rawlins KS-Hitchcock NE-Dundy NE-
642 PM MDT WED AUG 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN RAWLINS...
SOUTHWESTERN HITCHCOCK AND SOUTHEASTERN DUNDY COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM
MDT/800 PM CDT/...

At 642 PM MDT/742 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 6 miles southwest of Stratton, or 13 miles east of
Benkelman, moving southeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stratton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT/1000
PM CDT/ for northwestern Kansas...and southwestern Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4003 10145 4022 10126 4002 10101 3985 10117
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 306DEG 35KT 4007 10128

Lundquist

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
648 PM MDT WED AUG 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     HAIL             8 N WILD HORSE          38.93N 103.00W
08/02/2017  E1.50 INCH       CHEYENNE           CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL WAS MOSTLY QUARTERS AND PING PONG BALL SIZED AND
            COVERED THE GROUND. WIND MEASURED AT 54 MPH BEFORE
            MEASURING DEVICE FAILED. WINDOWS BROKEN AND TREE BRANCHES
            DOWN.

&&

TLYNCH