Severe Thunderstorm Warning 237, NWS Goodland, KS

809 
WWUS53 KGLD 012011
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
311 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2017

KSC203-012045-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0237.000000T0000Z-170801T2045Z/
Wichita KS-
311 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WICHITA COUNTY...

At 311 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles south of
Leoti, moving southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southeastern Wichita County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3843 10141 3839 10118 3827 10120 3833 10146
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 030DEG 13KT 3837 10140 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Lockhart

510 
WWUS53 KGLD 012031
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
331 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2017

KSC203-012040-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0237.000000T0000Z-170801T2045Z/
Wichita KS-
331 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WICHITA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3843 10141 3839 10118 3827 10120 3833 10146
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 016DEG 13KT 3830 10143 

$$

Lockhart

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1005 AM MDT Tue Aug 1 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 603 AM MDT Tue Aug 1 2017

Elevated thunderstorms have developed in the eastern portion of
our area and also being helped by a weak shortwave trough. So for
a few hours this morning I have inserted a slight chance of
thunderstorms. At the same time adjusted the area of fog slightly.
So far visibilities have stayed above one quarter.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Tue Aug 1 2017

Forecast issues will be fog today, precipitation chances through the
period, the winds behind the front Wednesday night, how hot to make
it through tomorrow, and how much to cool it off on Thursday.
Satellite continue to show an amplified pattern from the Pacific
into North America. Some amplification and retrogression of
heights/features have occurred over the last 24 hours from western
North America into the eastern Pacific. Because of the position of
the western ridge, richer/deeper moisture aloft has been shoved
south with a much drier air mass in place.

Models started well at jet level. At mid levels the models tended to
not have the ridge strong enough and far enough east. The Canadian,
Gfs, and Ukmet were doing a little better than the rest. Models were
having trouble at the surface with not have the surface trough far
enough west plus the surface not far enough west and north. The Sref
was starting the best. The Gfs, Canadian, and Nam were doing the
best on the low level thermal field.

Today/tonight...First issues to address is what the coverage of the
fog will, how dense will it be, and when it will end. At this time
the models would indicate the fog and stratus should end by late
morning. Kept temperatures about the same from yesterdays forecast.
However if clouds last longer than anticipated, temperatures will
need to be lowered. However, the models have a cool bias recently.

From yesterday the mid level ridge is further east than what was
shown yesterday. Later this afternoon into tonight the left front
quadrant stays to the south and west of the area. Overall the lift
and moisture looks better further east and north. In fact through
the period, the heights remain the same or slowly rise. So will have
this period dry for now.

Wednesday/Wednesday night...the two segments of the jet stay on
either side of the area which is a little concerning. May be in a
region of general downward motion as shortwave trough and associated
cold front moves through the region. Latest model data supports the
chance that the builder gave me of storms from late in the afternoon
into the night. So am planning on no changes.

Main upper system will moving through the north central portion of
the country and this will drive the above mentioned cold front
rather aggressively. A rather tight pressure gradient develops
behind the front with 5 to 7 mb 3 hour pressure rises. This frontal
passage happens at night and always wonder if the boundary layer
will stabilize enough to inhibit the brunt of the winds. Right now
will increase the builder winds a little and take another look at
this tomorrow.

The front does not look like it makes it into our until the late
afternoon. Models warm up temperatures over the previous day, and
that makes sense given the frontal timing with the warm air
advection/compressional warming ahead of the front. I ended up
raising the temperatures a little over what the builder gave me.

Thursday/Thursday night...The front is south of the forecast area by
the beginning of this period. Right rear quadrant of the jet moves
across during the afternoon and early evening which is the post
frontal environment. Also a couple of shortwave troughs move through
during this time. There appear to be rather strong baroclinic zones
associated with these shortwave troughs.

So the pops gives me during this time are reasonable. No surface
instability is around during the day but there is some elevated. So
will have mainly rain showers with embedded thunderstorms. Am
expecting the precipitation to hang around very long during the
night, and it should be in the form of rain showers.

Combination of strong cold air advection along with cloud cover and
precipitation will make for a much cooler day with highs not
expected to get out of the 70s. Some models are showing a few places
not making it out of the 60s. Not ready to go that far but enough
here to lower temperatures a little from the builder. Looks like a
cool night with light winds and a much cooler air mass in place.
Looks like a decent setup for radiational conditions so I lowered
the lows a little.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Tue Aug 1 2017

Friday-Saturday: Main concern with this period will be the potential
for strong to severe storms each evening. Will have a series of
shortwaves traverse the area in the NW flow aloft. This, combined
with a surface low and leeside troughing, will aid in the
development of thunderstorms. As of the 0Z models, Friday looks to
be the more impactful day in regards to strong to severe storms.
Model soundings show 0-6km bulk shear near 50kt and MUCAPE around
2500 J/kg across the CWA. Chance of showers and storms for both
days. Temperatures will be slightly below normal for the period.

Sunday-Monday: Looking at theta-e fields, GFS is advertising a
possible cold front/boundary passage during the pre-dawn hours
Sunday. Flow at the surface turns more out of the E/NE while upper
level flow stays out of the NW on Sunday. Disturbance moves across
the area Sunday night into Monday morning bringing a slight chance
of showers/storms again. Temperatures continue to remain below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1005 AM MDT Tue Aug 1 2017

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.
Cu/strato-cu expected at both terminals through early afternoon
with winds from the northeast to east at speeds 10kts or less. For
tonight generally clear with winds from the east veering to the
southeast at speeds under 10kts. For tomorrow morning winds from
the south approaching 10kts with some mid and high clouds
possible.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1245 PM MDT Tue Aug 1 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-021200-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1245 PM MDT Tue Aug 1 2017 /145 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado...
extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon generally along
and south of Interstate 70. The primary threats will be hail to one
inch in diameter, wind gusts to 50 mph and a brief period of locally
heavy rainfall which may create reduced visibilities.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected from late Wednesday afternoon
into the nighttime hours. Some of these storms could become severe
with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats.

There will be a chance of severe thunderstorms across the area from
Friday afternoon into Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
249 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2017

KSZ042-012030-
Wichita KS-
249 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WICHITA COUNTY UNTIL 330
PM CDT...

At 249 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Modoc, moving south at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Marienthal.

LAT...LON 3835 10138 3865 10126 3863 10113 3832 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 009DEG 11KT 3857 10117

Lockhart

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
151 PM MDT TUE AUG 1 2017

KSZ041-012000-
Greeley KS-
151 PM MDT TUE AUG 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN GREELEY COUNTY UNTIL
200 PM MDT...

At 151 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles north of Coolidge, moving south at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
Greeley County.

LAT...LON 3834 10204 3835 10183 3826 10181 3826 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 354DEG 20KT 3824 10193

Lockhart