Severe Thunderstorm Warning 224, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
202 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Mid level upper low continues to linger over eastern Colorado,
with deep plume of moisture overriding our CWA. Thunderstorm
coverage has continued to increase early this afternoon, and there
has been one report of severe hail near the NE state line with
one of the stronger cells.

High resolution guidance continues to favor increasing coverage
through the rest of the afternoon then decreasing coverage near
sunset. With a tendency for slow moving clusters along narrow
regions of mid level vorticity it is hard to zero in on overall
coverage, so I have continued to hedge towards high "chance". I
could see increasing coverage for some locations, but I will wait
in until we have a better handle on short range trends. With mid
level circulation and moist plume lingering I would expect at
least a few showers or weaker thunderstorms overnight tonight and
Sunday morning. Coverage should increase midday Sunday, with
increase in lapse rates due to daytime heating and models support
this trend.

Regarding severe potential: Meso analysis from RAP indicates axis
of 2500-3000 J/KG ML CAPE is in place over the northeast 2/3 of
our CWA, with very weak shear and slow 0-6km winds. PWATs are
shown to be anomalously high with values in excess of 1.5" across
our KS counties. Considering antecedent conditions isolated severe
hail and localized flash flooding would be the main concerns.
RAP/NAM show downward trend in CAPE, and a decreased severe threat
after sunset. We could see a repeat Sunday afternoon, with
similar conditions over at least part of our CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Sunday night-Tuesday: Weak closed upper level low meanders across
the area through Monday morning. This, combined with surface
troughing and abundant 700mb moisture, will bring chances of rain
and thunderstorms to southeastern portions of the CWA. Will carry
slight chances of storms on Monday and Tuesday afternoons due to
residual moisture and troughing. Temperatures will warm through the
period.

Wednesday-Thursday: Upper level ridging dominates the weather
through the period. Today's 12Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF are in
better agreement on temps than yesterday's.  Temperatures will be
well above normal with some areas at or above 100 degrees for highs
both days.

Friday-Saturday: Models are not in good agreement for this period,
so have low confidence in this portion of the forecast. Ridge
progresses off to the east, putting the area in more of a zonal
flow pattern aloft. Could see some showers/storms by Saturday.
Temperatures appear to remain above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

For KGLD...Showers and thunderstorms will begin to form in and
around KGLD going through the afternoon. Primary concern will be
20Z-23Z when thunderstorms could produce some lowered
visibilities due to heavy rain. Storms should wane after sundown
and be out of the area by midnight. VFR conditions expected
through the period.

For KMCK...VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Dry
conditions with a few passing clouds continuing through the
overnight. Winds stay light and variable.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...SME

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
204 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-162015-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
204 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017 /304 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado...
extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A very moist airmass will persist as an upper level system slowly
moves across the region from west to east today and tonight. Showers
and thunderstorms are possible, with the primary threat being
locally heavy rainfall which may cause flash flooding. A few
stronger storms may be capable of producing hail up to half dollar
size and strong winds this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible through
Sunday
night, with locally heavy rainfall the main threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon and evening.
Reports of heavy rainfall or flooding would also be appreciated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
246 PM MDT SAT JUL 15 2017

KSZ027-028-042-152115-
Wichita KS-Wallace KS-Logan KS-
246 PM MDT SAT JUL 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WICHITA...
SOUTHEASTERN WALLACE AND SOUTHWESTERN LOGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM
MDT/415 PM CDT/...

At 246 PM MDT/346 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 14 miles north of Leoti, moving south at 5 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Wichita...southeastern Wallace and southwestern Logan Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3888 10155 3889 10125 3866 10124 3866 10154
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 354DEG 5KT 3869 10141

024

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
405 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2017

KSZ014-015-152130-
Sheridan KS-Thomas KS-
405 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN THOMAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN SHERIDAN COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 404 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
about 5 miles southwest of Hoxie, moving north at 15 mph. Another
strong thunderstorm was located about 5 miles southwest of Menlo,
also moving northeast at around 15 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hoxie, Menlo, Angelus, Halford and Seguin.

This includes Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 68 and 71.

LAT...LON 3918 10042 3917 10090 3940 10087 3941 10036
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 193DEG 15KT 3929 10051

024

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