Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Goodland, KS

511 
WWUS53 KGLD 080307
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
907 PM MDT FRI JUL 7 2017

KSC071-199-080330-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-170708T0330Z/
Wallace KS-Greeley KS-
907 PM MDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN WALLACE AND NORTHWESTERN GREELEY COUNTIES...

At 907 PM MDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles southeast of Weskan to 11 miles north of
Horace, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

These severe thunderstorms will remain over mainly rural areas of
southwestern Wallace and northwestern Greeley Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3889 10176 3853 10175 3859 10198 3889 10194
TIME...MOT...LOC 0307Z 301DEG 21KT 3883 10187 3864 10186 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

DLF

380 
WWUS53 KGLD 080320
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
920 PM MDT FRI JUL 7 2017

KSC071-199-080329-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-170708T0330Z/
Wallace KS-Greeley KS-
920 PM MDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WALLACE AND
NORTHWESTERN GREELEY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3889 10176 3853 10175 3859 10198 3889 10194
TIME...MOT...LOC 0318Z 301DEG 21KT 3880 10180 3861 10179 

$$

DLF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
537 PM MDT Fri Jul 7 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Jul 7 2017

Upper ridge centered over the Four Corners will steer shortwave
energy southeastward across the High Plains. Convection already
developing along the Palmer Divide this afternoon will continue to
develop eastward along a mesoscale boundary apparent on KFTG
radar, then move southeast across the local area tonight with the
mean flow. Environment, at least early, will be moderately
unstable with deep layer shear 30-35kts. Models have pushed back
timing a bit and may not arrive in northwest Kansas until later in
the evening. SBCape will be waning and CIN increasing by that
time and storms may become elevated. As a result, wind and hail
threat may be limited to northeast Colorado early in the evening,
with more of a heavy rain threat later in the evening and
overnight as storms move east into precipitable water values of
around 1.00-1.50 inches. Best precipitation chances will be south
of Interstate 70.

Upper pattern changes little for Saturday with the Four Corners
ridge dominant and weak shortwave energy rotating around it
through the central Plains. Surface pattern will be messy and
dependent on effects of overnight convection, but still looks to
be mainly easterly low level upslope with the frontal boundary
near or just south. Convective allowing models favor northern part
of the area for afternoon storms while global models show
scattered storms developing just about everywhere. There will be
weak to moderate instability and deep layer shear at around
20-30kts. SPC has the local area in a marginal risk which seems
appropriate given all of the uncertainties. Temperatures will be
similar to today, mainly in the lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 150 PM MDT Fri Jul 7 2017

Hot temperatures will dominate the extended period with chances for
precipitation. The region will be under a perpetual ridge, with a
transition between being on the eastern side of the ridge (bringing
in northwest flow aloft) or being directly under the ridge. Tuesday
is the only day where the upper level flow flattens out briefly.

What causes precipitation chances through the majority of the period
will be shortwaves that move over the region. Along with hot
temperatures and instabilty storms will be possible. This set up is
variable though, chances for precipitation are strong but timing and
location will vary and will need to be adjusted as each day
approaches.

Ridging will create hot temperatures during the period. Monday and
Tuesday are currently forecast to be the hottest with some locations
reaching the low 100s. The remainder of the days will be in the mid
to upper 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 537 PM MDT Fri Jul 7 2017

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period at KGLD and
KMCK, though brief 3-6sm vis could be possible if stronger
thunderstorm or shower impacts either terminal. Currently best
chance of showers/thunderstorms is at KGLD with activity in
eastern CO expected to expand eastward early this evening then
transition along/south of I-70 in Kansas. In addition to the
activity models show just south of the Nebraska state line late
this evening, a smaller area of showers/thunderstorms over western
Nebraska may drop south towards KMCK (only a few models are
supporting this). I adjusted timing based on current
confidence/timing.

Prevailing winds will remain below 12kt through the TAF period.
The exception would be if thunderstorm activity is able to produce
stronger winds that could impact the terminals (not confident
enough to include yet).

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...DR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1045 AM MDT Fri Jul 7 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-081645-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1045 AM MDT Fri Jul 7 2017 /1145 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado...
extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms will develop in northeast Colorado later this
afternoon or early evening and then move across the remainder of the
area tonight. A few severe storms are possible mainly this evening
with large hail and damaging winds, then locally heavy rainfall and
possible flash flooding through the remainder of the night.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

From Saturday morning into the evening hours a few severe
thunderstorms will be possible across the entire area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
638 PM MDT FRI JUL 7 2017

COZ092-080100-
Cheyenne County CO-
638 PM MDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 700 PM MDT...

At 637 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles northwest of Sheridan Lake, or 13 miles south of Cheyenne
Wells, moving south at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central
Cheyenne County in east central Colorado.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 136 and 141.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 10246 3870 10227 3862 10225 3861 10247
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 355DEG 13KT 3863 10238

DR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
712 PM MDT FRI JUL 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             13 NNW LEVANT           39.54N 101.31W
07/07/2017  E1.50 INCH       THOMAS             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TLYNCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
738 PM MDT FRI JUL 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     7 N BREWSTER            39.46N 101.40W
07/07/2017                   SHERMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF A SMALL FUNNEL CLOUD ABOUT ONE THIRD
            OF THE WAY TO THE GROUND.

&&

TLYNCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
749 PM MDT FRI JUL 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0746 PM     HAIL             2 S BREWSTER            39.34N 101.37W
07/07/2017  E2.50 INCH       THOMAS             KS   PUBLIC

&&

TLYNCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
750 PM MDT FRI JUL 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW BREWSTER           39.34N 101.40W
07/07/2017  E60.00 MPH       SHERMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER ESTIMATED WINDS WERE AT LEAST 60 MPH.

0747 PM     HAIL             2 SW BREWSTER           39.34N 101.40W
07/07/2017  E1.75 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
826 PM MDT FRI JUL 7 2017

KSZ027-080300-
Wallace KS-
826 PM MDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL WALLACE COUNTY UNTIL
900 PM MDT...

At 825 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northwest of Weskan, or 16 miles west of Sharon Springs, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Weskan.

LAT...LON 3884 10205 3897 10204 3892 10183 3878 10197
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 310DEG 11KT 3891 10205

DLF