Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
206 PM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 154 PM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Forecast concerns are the hot temperatures and the potential for
thunderstorms and severe weather this afternoon and evening.
Additionally, cooler, but still quite warm, temperatures are
expected along with scattered showers and thunderstorms with a
slight risk of severe storms on Thursday as a cold front moves
through the area.

A few thunderstorms are currently rolling off the Palmer divide
region and traveling into far western Kansas while additional CU
are beginning to initiate east of a surface trough bisecting the
forecast area from north to south. Instabilities are higher, but
the atmosphere is still relatively dry where afternoon
temperatures are around 100 and dewpoints are in the mid 50s to
mid 60s ahead of the surface trough. On the back side of the
trough, the atmosphere is much drier with dewpoints in the 30s and
40s. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase east of the
surface through the afternoon as a weak mid level short wave in
the nearly zonal flow moves east across the high plains this
afternoon and out of the forecast area this evening. A few storms
could become severe with large hail, damaging winds, and localized
heavy rain.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on Thursday as a
prefrontal trough moves into the area during the morning with a
cold front expected to slide south across the forecast area
between 18-00Z. There is currently a slight risk of storms
becoming severe across the entire forecast area with the
possibility of large hail, damaging winds, and localized heavy
rainfall with some of the stronger storms that may develop.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 154 PM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Thursday night-Friday: A chance for thunderstorms and showers will
continue behind the cold front through the evening and overnight
hours for the majority of the area. For Friday, chance of rain in
the morning, diminishing in the afternoon. Soundings show good CAA
into the area Friday afternoon and night. Temps for Friday will be
below normal with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 and lows in the
lower 50s.

Saturday-Sunday: Saturday looks to be the coolest day of the period.
Upslope flow at the surface, abundant moisture at 700mb, surface
troughing, and NW flow in the upper levels will combine to make for
a cloudy, and at times, rainy day. Current temperature forecast is
still warmer than some of the reliable guidance. One note, if 12Z
GFS MOS verifies, Goodland would break the record low maximum for
the day (Record is 67 and MOS has 66). Lows Saturday night will be
in the mid to upper 40s which may put a few records in jeopardy.
Chance of rain continues into Sunday morning for the entire CWA.
Highs will be 10-15 degrees below normal as most areas dry out
through the afternoon with upper level ridging building in aloft.

Monday-Wednesday: Next chance of rain and thunderstorms comes Monday
evening where the potential of strong to severe storms exist. CWA
will see blustery conditions Tuesday into Wednesday. Temps should
warm through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Although isolated showers and thunderstorms will move eastward
across the central high plains region this afternoon and become
more numerous this evening, they are not expected to be part of
any prevailing conditions at either MCK or GLD. VFR conditions
are anticipated at both of those locations through the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...LOCKHART

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1047 AM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-221700-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1047 AM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017 /1147 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado...
extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Ambient air temperatures and Heat Index values of 100 to 104 degrees
will be common east of the Colorado border region across northwest
Kansas and southwest Nebraska this afternoon.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected mainly east of the
Colorado border area this afternoon through early evening with a
slight risk of severe storms east of a line from Tribune, Kansas to
McCook, Nebraska. Large hail, damaging wind gusts and locally heavy
rainfall are the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the Tri-State
region Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Damaging winds and
large hail are the main threats. Locally heavy rainfall will also
increase the threat for flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
317 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2017

KSZ042-212045-
Wichita KS-
317 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WICHITA COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM CDT...

At 317 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Leoti, moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lydia.

LAT...LON 3842 10132 3843 10113 3826 10113 3827 10134
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 275DEG 29KT 3833 10132

JN