Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
148 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

The upper level flow in the atmosphere shifts to southwesterly
tonight ahead of a developing trough of low pressure near the west
coast of the country. On Monday the trough slowly moves east but
remains well west of the rockies. Closer to the sfc winds become
more southerly in direction tonight and increase into the 10 to 20
mph range with some higher gusts Monday afternoon. Models are
hinting at the potential for stratus to move into the area from the
south-southeast toward sunrise continuing north while pushing east
of the CO/KS border a few hours after sunrise then dissipating/out
of the area before noon. Otherwise expect some mid and/or high
cloudiness.

Low temperature guidance has been quite high the past few days
compared to observed low temperatures. Have trended toward the
colder guidance tonight given continued low dewpoints, fairly light
winds and little cloud cover. Looking at readings in the low teens
west to low 20s east. For Monday 850mb temperatures warm about 15f
to 18f across the area compared to today (Sunday). This would
support low to mid 60s. The better performing bias corrected grids
along with met/mav and 2m guidance are a bit cooler averaging around
50 in northwest Yuma county where some snow cover exists to the
mid/upper 50s elsewhere. Blending the two supports low 50s northwest
to low 60s far south.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 148 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

Dry conditions are expected during the extended period. The pattern
the models are showing support a very dry air mass, and despite a
few weak shortwave trough passages conditions will remain dry. The
upper-level flow starts out from the northwest then becomes westerly-
southwesterly by the end of the period. High temperatures on
Thursday will be near seasonal normals. While on Friday... highs
will reach into the 60s as a lee trough redevelops. Strong WAA will
move over the region through the weekend producing highs in the
upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1024 PM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

VFR conditions will continue at MCK and GLD through the TAF
period while skies remain clear to partly cloudy with only
scattered high clouds expected during the day on Monday. There is
a possibility of low level wind shear near the top of the surface
inversion layer where south winds will be increasing overnight as
the pressure gradient increases ahead of the surface low that
deepens over eastern Colorado during the day on Monday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM MST this morning through this
     afternoon for KSZ013-027.

CO...Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM MST this morning through this
     afternoon for COZ253-254.

NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...LOCKHART

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
240 PM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-271200-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
240 PM MST Sun Feb 26 2017 /340 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado...
extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A Fire Weather Watch is in effect from 11 AM MST through 5 PM MST
Monday for Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties of Colorado, Sherman and
Wallace counties of Kansas. In these areas relative humidity values
will fall close to 15 percent with southwest winds gusting around 25
mph. Outdoor burning is discouraged in these areas.

A cold front will move through the region Tuesday and light snow
accumulations will be possible along and south of Interstate 70
Tuesday night. Windy conditions and colder temperatures behind this
front may lead to wind chills in the single digits Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.