Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Goodland, KS

668 
WWUS83 KGLD 062358
RFWGLD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
458 PM MST MON FEB 6 2017

COZ254-KSZ041-070100-
/O.CAN.KGLD.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170207T0000Z/
CHEYENNE-GREELEY-
458 PM MST MON FEB 6 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 041 AND 
254...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING.

WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED AS THE SUN BEGINS TO SET. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER BEING MET.

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1010 AM MST Mon Feb 6 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 AM MST Mon Feb 6 2017

Dense fog advisory allowed to expire on time at 17z. Have updated
all parameters for the short term to reflect current and latest
model guidance. Wide range in temperatures today with around 50
out east and mid 60s across the west. Winds fairly light across
the east and west/northwest gusting 15 to 25 mph across the far
west and southwest. Will also have varying degrees of mid and high
level cloudiness.

UPDATE Issued at 636 AM MST Mon Feb 6 2017

Dense fog is moving into the area. Majority of guidance agrees
that most of the southeast third should see dense fog. They differ
on how far west. Chose to go with the slightly further west
solutions since some fog is occurring where the furthest west
models indicate.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 407 AM MST Mon Feb 6 2017

Forecast issues will be fog/dense fog this morning, elevated fire
weather conditions over the far south and southwest portion of the
area this afternoon, chance of precipitation Tuesday night, and
winds on Wednesday. Satellite showing a somewhat amplified but
active/progressive flow across the Pacific to along the west coast
of North America. This then transitions to a broad/flat
ridge/westerly flow across the country.

Today/tonight...large area of fog/stratus not too far to our south
and east. Models all catch this area but differ on how fast and far
west to bring the fog, especially the dense fog. Hrrr and Rap appear
to catch the area the best. Have kept the mention of fog in the
forecast through the morning hours. However, am uncertain of exactly
where the dense fog will be. Will continue to watch the trends and
still may end up issuing a dense fog advisory before the night is
out.

The area of fog and stratus is really slow to dissipate and/or to
move off to the east. Also there is a lot of mid and upper level
cloud cover spreading over due to jet lift/fast westerly flow aloft.
As such this all could limit on how warm it gets today, especially
in the eastern portion. So toned down the high temperatures a
little. For the affect of the cloud cover and how the behavior of
the surface to our west affects the fire weather situation, refer to
the fire weather section below.

Tuesday/Tuesday night...What the jet does becomes a big mess with
the deterministic output not agreeing. In general, left front
quadrant starts affecting the area from the middle of the day into
the evening hours. At that time, the jet segment stays over or near
the northern portion of the forecast area for the rest of the
night. During the evening a rather strong mid level shortwave
trough/baroclinic zone moves across.

The forecast builder produced slight chance to low chance pops in
the northern portion of the area. That looks reasonable and left
alone. At this time the amounts look light and will continue to be
watched closely.

Wednesday/Wednesday night...Left front quadrant looks to affect the
entire area during the day through the evening hours. Cooling trend
from todays continues on this day but the models differ dramatically
on the high temperatures. At this time left what the forecast
builder gave me, but these will need to be adjusted.

Because of the models different handling of features, front, and
temperatures, they differ on the winds. The Gfs is indicating very
windy conditions. Lapse rates and downward motion would tend to
support that. However, way too much uncertainty to make any
definitive adjustments to the winds the forecast builder gave me.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 216 AM MST Mon Feb 6 2017

In the extended period there will be an increase in temperatures
during the first half of the period and then a decrease in the
second half. As well as precipitation chances during the second
half.

The first half, Thursday and Friday, a ridge begins to move into the
region from the west. A warm front is expected to move into the area
during the day on Thursday from the west. This will help increase
the max temps in the western counties on Thursday. Friday will have
temperatures much higher than normal. Current model guidance has the
region reaching the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Those warmer temperatures and ridge are short lived. A upper level
trough moves west towards the region late Friday night and doesn't
impact the region until Saturday. With this trough, a cold front
will move over the region Saturday and decrease max temps into the
50s and 60s Saturday and the 40s on Sunday. The trough looks to sit
over the region for a few days, which supports the lower
temperatures. In addition to the colder temperatures, precipitation
chances could impact the region late Saturday into Sunday morning.
Rain will transition to snow during the overnight hours. Snowfall
totals do not look significant at this time but this system will
continue to be monitored as next weekend approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 900 AM MST Mon Feb 6 2017

For KGLD, vfr conditions through the period. Northwest winds
around 8kts at taf issuance expected to increase into the 13g20kt
range from 20z-22z under thick mid level cloudiness. For the rest
of the period winds remain west or southwest at speeds under 10kts
with scattered to broken mid and high clouds.

For KMCK, vfr conditions through the period. Light and variable
winds at taf issuance will continue through about 01z before
becoming west near 6kts from 02z-16z. After 17z winds shift to the
northwest near 10kts as a cold front starts to approach the
terminal. Mid and high clouds expected through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 407 AM MST Mon Feb 6 2017

For today...very uncertain about if critical fire weather conditions
will be reached. Surface trough/low to our west and south is a
little stronger and further west/south than most guidance is
currently indicating. The Rap and Hrrr are catching this the best
and as a result keep the axis of higher winds to our south. Also as
a result of this, the dewpoints should stay a little higher as well.

What complicates this even further is the affect of the cloud cover.
As stated above, satellite showing a lot of mid/high level cloud
cover spilling over the area as the result of the fast westerly flow
aloft. Relative humidity forecasts look to be underdoing this cloud
cover at this time. As a result the mixing may not be as a good as
what the models are showing. This plus the reasoning above should
keep the wind speeds/gusts lower plus the mixing will not be as good
plus the dewpoints will stay higher. As a result the relative
humidities look to stay above 15 percent plus the winds will not be
strong enough or last long enough to cause critical fire weather
conditions.

As a result, have held off issuing a red flag warning. Day shift
will have to watch this closely.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1005 AM MST MON FEB 6 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-071200-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1005 AM MST MON FEB 6 2017 /1105 AM CST MON FEB 6 2017/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM LEOTI TO CHEYENNE WELLS TO WILD HORSE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.