Frost Advisory 3, NWS Goodland, KS

961 
WWUS73 KGLD 031755
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1155 AM MDT Wed May 3 2017

COZ090-KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042-NEZ079-040000-
/O.CON.KGLD.FR.Y.0003.170504T0600Z-170504T1400Z/
Yuma County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Sherman-Thomas-Wallace-Logan-Greeley-
Wichita-Dundy-
Including the cities of Yuma, Wray, St. Francis, Bird City, 
Atwood, Goodland, Colby, Sharon Springs, Oakley, Tribune, Leoti, 
and Benkelman
1155 AM MDT Wed May 3 2017 /1255 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017/

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/
TONIGHT TO 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ THURSDAY...

* Temperatures...In the mid 30s.

* Timing/Duration...after midnight through early Thursday 
  morning.

* Impacts...any temperature sensitive vegetation may be injured 
  by the cold temperatures.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Frost Advisory is issued when frost is expected to develop
during the growing season. Those with agricultural interests in
the advisory area should consider harvesting or protecting tender
vegetation. Also...potted plants normally left outdoors should be
covered or brought inside away from the cold.

&&

$$

COZ091-092-040000-
/O.CON.KGLD.FZ.A.0001.170504T0600Z-170504T1400Z/
Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-
Including the cities of Burlington, Arapahoe, and Cheyenne Wells
1155 AM MDT Wed May 3 2017

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

* Temperatures...In the low 30s.

* Timing/Duration...after midnight through early Thursday 
  morning.

* Impacts...any temperature sensitive vegetation will be injured 
  by the cold temperatures.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Watch means temperatures of 32 degrees or less are
possible. These conditions could kill crops and other sensitive
vegetation.

&&

$$

870 
WWUS73 KGLD 032039
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Goodland KS
239 PM MDT Wed May 3 2017

COZ091-092-040600-
/O.UPG.KGLD.FZ.A.0001.170504T0600Z-170504T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KGLD.FZ.W.0001.170504T0600Z-170504T1400Z/
Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-
Including the cities of Burlington, Arapahoe, and Cheyenne Wells
239 PM MDT Wed May 3 2017

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MDT
THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Goodland has issued a Freeze
Warning...which is in effect from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT
Thursday. The Freeze Watch is no longer in effect.

* Temperatures...Near 30 degrees.

* Timing/Duration...after midnight through early Thursday 
  morning.

* Impacts...any temperature sensitive vegetation will be injured
  by the cold temperatures.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning is issued when temperatures of 28 degrees or
below are forecast for at least one hour. Those with agricultural
interests in the warned area are advised to harvest or protect
tender vegetation. Also...potted plants normally left outdoors
should be covered or brought inside away from the cold.

&&

$$

COZ090-KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042-NEZ079-040600-
/O.CON.KGLD.FR.Y.0003.170504T0600Z-170504T1400Z/
Yuma County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Sherman-Thomas-Wallace-Logan-Greeley-
Wichita-Dundy-
Including the cities of Yuma, Wray, St. Francis, Bird City, 
Atwood, Goodland, Colby, Sharon Springs, Oakley, Tribune, Leoti, 
and Benkelman
239 PM MDT Wed May 3 2017 /339 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017/

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/
TONIGHT TO 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ THURSDAY...

* Temperatures...In the middle 30s.

* Timing/Duration...after midnight through early Thursday 
  morning.

* Impacts...any temperature sensitive vegetation may be injured 
  by the cold temperatures.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Frost Advisory is issued when frost is expected to develop
during the growing season. Those with agricultural interests in
the advisory area should consider harvesting or protecting tender
vegetation. Also...potted plants normally left outdoors should be
covered or brought inside away from the cold.

&&

$$

974 
WWUS73 KGLD 040547
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1147 PM MDT Wed May 3 2017

COZ091-092-041400-
/O.CON.KGLD.FZ.W.0001.170504T0600Z-170504T1400Z/
Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-
Including the cities of Burlington, Arapahoe, and Cheyenne Wells
1147 PM MDT Wed May 3 2017

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM MDT THURSDAY...

* Temperatures...Near 30 degrees.

* Timing/Duration...after midnight through early Thursday 
  morning.

* Impacts...any temperature sensitive vegetation will be injured 
  by the cold temperatures.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning is issued when temperatures of 28 degrees or
below are forecast for at least one hour. Those with agricultural
interests in the warned area are advised to harvest or protect
tender vegetation. Also...potted plants normally left outdoors
should be covered or brought inside away from the cold.

&&

$$

COZ090-KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042-NEZ079-041400-
/O.CON.KGLD.FR.Y.0003.170504T0600Z-170504T1400Z/
Yuma County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Sherman-Thomas-Wallace-Logan-Greeley-
Wichita-Dundy-
Including the cities of Yuma, Wray, St. Francis, Bird City, 
Atwood, Goodland, Colby, Sharon Springs, Oakley, Tribune, Leoti, 
and Benkelman
1147 PM MDT Wed May 3 2017 /1247 AM CDT Thu May 4 2017/

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/
THURSDAY...

* Temperatures...In the middle 30s.

* Timing/Duration...after midnight through early Thursday 
  morning.

* Impacts...any temperature sensitive vegetation may be injured 
  by the cold temperatures.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Frost Advisory is issued when frost is expected to develop
during the growing season. Those with agricultural interests in
the advisory area should consider harvesting or protecting tender
vegetation. Also...potted plants normally left outdoors should be
covered or brought inside away from the cold.

&&

$$

219 
WWUS73 KGLD 041400
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Goodland KS
800 AM MDT Thu May 4 2017

COZ091-092-041500-
/O.EXP.KGLD.FZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170504T1400Z/
Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-
Including the cities of Burlington, Arapahoe, and Cheyenne Wells
800 AM MDT Thu May 4 2017

...FREEZE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING...

Temperatures have warmed well above freezing across the area.

$$

COZ090-KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042-NEZ079-041500-
/O.EXP.KGLD.FR.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170504T1400Z/
Yuma County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Sherman-Thomas-Wallace-Logan-Greeley-
Wichita-Dundy-
Including the cities of Yuma, Wray, St. Francis, Bird City, 
Atwood, Goodland, Colby, Sharon Springs, Oakley, Tribune, Leoti, 
and Benkelman
800 AM MDT Thu May 4 2017 /900 AM CDT Thu May 4 2017/

...FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS
MORNING...

Temperatures have quickly warmed across the area this morning.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1155 PM MDT Tue May 2 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Tue May 2 2017

Main forecast issues will chance of precipitation through tomorrow
followed by winds for tomorrow. Satellite showing ridging along the
west coast of North America with northwest flow aloft over the
central portion of the country. Numerous shortwaves are embedded
within this flow with one affecting the area later this afternoon
into early tomorrow and a weaker one for later tomorrow.

For tonight it looks like the shortwave comes across in two parts.
One that goes across the northern portion of or area with the
stronger southern portion going south of our area. Main/strongest
jet lift looks to along the southern edge of our area to south of
our area. Mid level lift progs show show strongest lift along the
southern edge. Weaker but still decent lift reside further north
over our area. Theta-e lapse rates stay low positive with very
little elevated cape in the column.

High resolution qpf output supports the above scenario especially
the Arw and to a lesser extent the Rap. The Arw was catching the
current area of light rain showers across our far north the best.
Based on all this, am using the Arw as a baseline and making minor
adjustments based on other parameters. The main change was to
slow down the arrival of precipitation this evening and its
progression across the forecast area. Models agree on keep
precipitation in the east longer tonight with this first
shortwave. Plan on having showers with embedded thunderstorms
through this evening with no thunderstorms after midnight.

Based on the best performing guidance, what happened last night,
and rather thick cloud cover, chose to go toward the warmer
guidance for mins.

For Wednesday...Complicated precipitation forecast. The first
shortwave is in the process of leaving the area early in the day.
However right on its heals is the second shortwave moving in. Left
front quadrant of jet will begin affect the western portion of the
area in the afternoon. Theta-e lapse rates through the day are much
better and are negative. Also much more Cape/instability is in the
column.

The model output, especially the high resolution guidance, is
keeping precipitation around longer, especially in the east, due to
the second shortwave, which looks a little stronger. There may be a
slight break in between the shortwaves. However with the lingering
lift, favorable lapse rates, cape, and moderate/strong mesoscale
forcing, a higher chance of precipitation looks in store for the
area, especially in the morning. So raised pops according. Cloud
cover and cold front moving through will keep temperatures from
rising too much. Will tend toward the cooler guidance.

In regards to the front, winds behind it look breezy to windy which
is similar to previous guidance and forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 147 PM MDT Tue May 2 2017

The long term period will be dry through most of the period with
chances for precipitation returning Monday afternoon and Tuesday.
One thing mentionable for Wednesday night is the potential for frost
over the western portion of the CWA. Low temperatures will generally
range between 32 to 36 degrees over those areas and RH values are
favorable.

The primary reason behind the dry conditions is an omega block
across the United States, with the CWA under a ridge. This ridge
will begin to move into the region Thursday and move over the region
by Friday. This ridge will impact the area through the beginning of
next week. Temperatures will also increase due to the ridge.
Thursday and Friday will increase steadily and be in the 60s and
70s. High temperatures in the 80s Saturday through Monday. Finally
decreasing slightly Tuesday into the mid to upper 70s.

Guidance currently shows slight movement of the ridge eastward on
Monday, which explains the precipitation chances. There is southerly
flow shown to move over the western side of the region bringing in
some moisture. This will need to be monitored as next week
approaches, but right now nothing appears to be severe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1101 PM MDT Tue May 2 2017

A low pressure system moving across the southern high plains over
the next 24 hours will bring a chance of rain showers overnight
with a chance of thunderstorms from mid day through the afternoon
on Wednesday before showers and clouds begin to clear out as a
ridge of high pressure moves in Wednesday night.

VFR conditions are currently expected through the TAF period at
GLD with a chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly between
18Z-22Z. North winds will become gusty after 13Z and will
continue through about 00Z Wednesday evening. After 00Z, winds
will subside and skies will begin to clear.

MCK is expected to remain VFR through the TAF period. North winds
will become gusty after 17Z and will continue through about 00Z
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly between 17Z-21Z.
North winds will subside and skies will begin to clear after 03Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...LOCKHART

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1022 AM MDT Tue May 2 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-031200-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1022 AM MDT Tue May 2 2017 /1122 AM CDT Tue May 2 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado...
extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Wednesday night into Thursday morning frost may form west of Highway
27.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.