Freeze Warning 3, NWS Goodland, KS

262 
WWUS73 KGLD 110530
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1130 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2017

KSZ002>004-014>016-028-029-042-NEZ080-081-111500-
/O.CON.KGLD.FZ.W.0003.000000T0000Z-171011T1500Z/
Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Logan-Gove-Wichita-
Hitchcock-Red Willow-
Including the cities of Atwood, Oberlin, Norton, Colby, Hoxie, 
Hill City, Oakley, Quinter, Grinnell, Grainfield, Leoti, 
Culbertson, Trenton, Stratton Ne, Palisade, and McCook
1230 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS
MORNING...

* Temperatures...29 to 32.

* Timing/Duration...Through the morning hours on Wednesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning is issued when temperatures range from 29 to
32 degrees are forecast. Those with agricultural interests in the
warned area are advised to harvest or protect tender vegetation.
Also...potted plants normally left outdoors should be covered or
brought inside away from the cold.

&&

$$

549 
WWUS73 KGLD 110737
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Goodland KS
137 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017

KSZ002>004-014>016-028-029-042-NEZ080-081-111500-
/O.CON.KGLD.FZ.W.0003.000000T0000Z-171011T1500Z/
Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Logan-Gove-Wichita-
Hitchcock-Red Willow-
Including the cities of Atwood, Oberlin, Norton, Colby, Hoxie, 
Hill City, Oakley, Quinter, Grinnell, Grainfield, Leoti, 
Culbertson, Trenton, Stratton Ne, Palisade, and McCook
237 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

...A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS 
MORNING...

* Temperatures...29 to 32 degrees.

* Timing/Duration...through 10 AM CDT this morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Those with agricultural interests in the warned area are advised 
to harvest or protect tender vegetation. Also...potted plants 
normally left outdoors should be covered or brought inside away 
from the cold.

$$

714 
WWUS73 KGLD 111434
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Goodland KS
834 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017

KSZ002>004-014>016-028-029-042-NEZ080-081-111545-
/O.CAN.KGLD.FZ.W.0003.000000T0000Z-171011T1500Z/
Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Logan-Gove-Wichita-
Hitchcock-Red Willow-
Including the cities of Atwood, Oberlin, Norton, Colby, Hoxie, 
Hill City, Oakley, Quinter, Grinnell, Grainfield, Leoti, 
Culbertson, Trenton, Stratton Ne, Palisade, and McCook
934 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

...FREEZE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Goodland has cancelled the Freeze
Warning.

Temperatures have warmed up well above freezing. Therefore the
warning has been cancelled.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1131 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This morning through Thursday night)
Issued at 159 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Mid/upper level low is over western KS and in the process of
transitioning eastward. Shortwave ridging is building into the
Rockies, with dry and and subsidence beginning to spread into our
western CWA. There are still light returns on radar, but these are
rapidly dissipating. Temps have been just warm enough that this
has fallen mainly as rain, just barely mixing with snow grains.

This morning: Upper level subsidence and very dry air
overspreading the CWA this morning, and we should see current
returns continue to erode and shift eastward. Short range guidance
have good handle on these trends and adjustments were made to
reflect precip ending by sunrise.

Regarding frost/freeze highlights: Temperatures are showing a
downward trend as skies begin to clear this morning, and a few
location have already dropped to 32F. No changes are planned to
Hard Freeze/Freeze Warnings this morning. Additional freeze
highlights may need to be considered for tonight with many
locations possibly dropping to around 32F. I held off as we may
not need to issue additional frost/freeze highlights for some
counties if there is a killing freeze this morning, and I wanted
to see how temps play out.

Today-Thursday night: Very dry and stable air mass will be in place
through Wednesday night. Surface high pressure will be slow to
shift east, and this will keep below normal temps in place
through Wednesday morning (Highs below 60F). Flow shifts to the
southwest during the day Wednesday and lee trough begins to
redevelop, allowing WAA to increase across the region and highs to
recover to seasonal normals (mid to upper 60s, lows upper 30s to
the middle 40s). Above normal temperatures are progged Thursday
with highs around 80F as lee trough continues to deepen. Another
cold front moves into the region by late Thursday night. While
forcing increases, there will be a prohibitively dry air mass in
place and precipitation is not expected.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2017

An upper level ridge will persist over the Gulf Coast this
weekend, then weaken and shift WSW over northern Mexico and the
Desert SW by early next week. An upper level trough over the PAC
NW will track east across the northern Rockies and Upper Midwest
over the weekend. GFS/ECMWF guidance disagree on the timing and
amplitude of the wave, the GFS weaker/faster/dry and the ECMWF
slower/stronger/wet. Regardless of which solution is correct,
low-level moisture return will be limited by ridging along the
Gulf Coast. Thus, even if the more amplified ECMWF solution
verifies, precipitation amounts would be light in the Tri-state
region, with the relative best chance for precip Sat night.

Expect a rapid clearing trend in the wake of the upper trough
on Sunday (assuming the ECMWF solution verifies). Ridging aloft
will prevail across the Rockies/High Plains early next week.
Southerly return flow on the eastern periphery of a lee cyclone
in CO should result in a warming trend Mon/Tue. Expect dry
conditions to prevail due to poor moisture return and limited
forcing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. Variable and
shifting winds of 6 knots or less are expected until early this
evening. At that time south to south southeast winds of 6 to 9
knots are expected through mid morning on Wednesday. Around 16z
the sustained winds will increase to near 12 knots at both sites.
At Kgld beginning at 16z the winds will start gusting to near 20
knots.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...BULLER

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1028 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-111200-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1028 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2017 /1128 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Freezing conditions along with areas of frost will develop later this
evening into the overnight hours across all of northwest Kansas and
extreme southwest Nebraska.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Freezing conditions along with areas of frost will continue through
the mid morning hours on Wednesday across northwest Kansas and extreme
southwest Nebraska.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.